2011 Kentucky Derby Predictions

Exercise rider Nate Quinonez gallops Kentucky Derby hopeful Twice The Appeal on the track during early morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, May 5, 2011. REUTERS/Jeff Haynes (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT HORSE RACING)

Listen, I don’t mean to brag but I’m going to anyway.

I was good last year predicting the Triple Crown – I mean, real good.

I had Paddy O’prado to place in the Kentucky Derby (he finished third) and Super Saver (the winner) listed as one of the horses to “keep your eye on.” In the Preakness, I hit Lookin’ At Lucky for the win and nailed First Dude to finish in the money, which is noteworthy since he was a 20/1 long shot to open. Finally, in the Belmont, I predicted the top three (Drosselmeyer, Fly Down, First Dude) to finish in the money, although not in the correct order.

So basically what I’m saying is that if you don’t take my picks today and wager the deed to your house, your wife and/or your dog, that’s just dumb. LET IT RIDE!!!

I’m kidding – I’m not that arrogant, although I did mange to find some luck last year in my predictions so we’ll see how I fare this year. On second thought, you may want to avoid these three…

Win: Twice The Appeal (+1000)
Like I’m going to pass on taking Calvin Borel at Churchill Downs…when he’ll be coming out of the No. 3 post position. Ha! No way. Twice The Appeal has won three of his last four races, with his latest victory coming at the Sunland Derby on March 27. He does seem a little too good to be true, but I have faith in more Borel magic happening today.

Place: Archacharch (+1200)
Why isn’t this horse receiving more love? He drew the rail on Wednesday and his odds went from +900 to +1200. Granted, the rail hasn’t produced a winner since 1988 (Winning Colors) but it still has the most victories (12) in Kentucky Derby history. It’s a prime spot and for a horse that is coming off a victory at the Arkansas Derby to be listed at +1200, this feels like a nice value. If it weren’t for Calvin Borel’s magic at Churchill Downs, I would probably peg Archarcharch to win.

Show: Dialed In (+500)
Dialed In has been the favorite all week, even though his odds continue to drop. He was listed at +350 on Monday, +300 on Tuesday, and +250 on Wednesday when the post positions were drawn. Now he’s +500, which seems like a great value to me. He won the Florida Derby in his last outing on April 3 and also took first in the Holly Bull earlier this year. The only problem is that he doesn’t have much career experience, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he won the roses on Saturday. He’s a nice-looking horse.

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