UFC 119 takes place tonight from the Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The card doesn’t have a major fight that will have an impact on the landscape of the organization but each of the five main card bouts should be competitive and entertaining contests. Here are my picks for the show.
UFC Heavyweight Bout – Frank Mir (13-5) vs. Mirko Cro Cop (27-7-2) – Cro Cop took this fight on somewhat short notice as this was originally supposed to be a rematch of Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. On top of that, Cro Cop is not 100 percent coming into the fight as he is dealing with an eye injury. Cro Cop is a step slower than he was in his prime while Mir has improved his striking while still being one of the best submission fighters in all of MMA. I see Mir landing a big punch in the second round before jumping on Cro Cop and finishing with a choke.
UFC Light Heavyweight Bout – Antonio Rogerio Nogueria (19-3) vs. Ryan Bader (12-0) – This fight is a big contest for both as each needs the win to really get into the title picture in this division. The key to the bout will be Bader’s wrestling, as his explosiveness should win out against Nogueira. If Bader can avoid the big hit and close the distance in the fight, he should be able to win a decision by grinding out the fight on top with ground and pound.
UFC Welterweight Bout – Matt Serra (17-6) vs. Chris Lytle (29-17-4) – I see this fight going similarly to the first. Lytle is an entertaining and experienced fighter, but he never has been able to get that marquee win in his career. Serra really just has the win over Georges St. Pierre to go bye, but he has always been a tough guy to beat as well. In this fight I see Serra controlling the fight with his grappling. The only way I don’t see him winning by decision is if he gets too confident in his striking.
UFC Lightweight Bout – Sean Sherk (37-4-1) vs. Evan Dunham (11-0) – Sherk used to dominate the division with his strength and wrestling, but recently his opponents have been able to avoid his takedowns with their strength and they have been faster with their striking, which has caused Sherk to lose two of his last three bouts. Dunham has that same style to beat Sherk. Sherk will struggle to get the fight to the ground and Dunham will be a little quicker to the punch. I like Dunham to win this fight by decision.
UFC Lightweight Bout – Melvin Guillard (43-9-3) vs. Jeremy Stephens (18-5) – This fight should be explosive as both have big power and like to swing with everything they have in each punch. The key in this bout will be Guillard’s inability to fight off his back as Stephens trains with Hermes Franca and has some grappling skills that many haven’t seen yet. I see Stephens getting takedowns late to set up for some ground and pound and a TKO finish in the third.
