UFC 119 Picks & Predictions

UFC 119 takes place tonight from the Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The card doesn’t have a major fight that will have an impact on the landscape of the organization but each of the five main card bouts should be competitive and entertaining contests. Here are my picks for the show.

UFC Heavyweight Bout – Frank Mir (13-5) vs. Mirko Cro Cop (27-7-2) – Cro Cop took this fight on somewhat short notice as this was originally supposed to be a rematch of Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. On top of that, Cro Cop is not 100 percent coming into the fight as he is dealing with an eye injury. Cro Cop is a step slower than he was in his prime while Mir has improved his striking while still being one of the best submission fighters in all of MMA. I see Mir landing a big punch in the second round before jumping on Cro Cop and finishing with a choke.

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout – Antonio Rogerio Nogueria (19-3) vs. Ryan Bader (12-0) – This fight is a big contest for both as each needs the win to really get into the title picture in this division. The key to the bout will be Bader’s wrestling, as his explosiveness should win out against Nogueira. If Bader can avoid the big hit and close the distance in the fight, he should be able to win a decision by grinding out the fight on top with ground and pound.

UFC Welterweight Bout – Matt Serra (17-6) vs. Chris Lytle (29-17-4) – I see this fight going similarly to the first. Lytle is an entertaining and experienced fighter, but he never has been able to get that marquee win in his career. Serra really just has the win over Georges St. Pierre to go bye, but he has always been a tough guy to beat as well. In this fight I see Serra controlling the fight with his grappling. The only way I don’t see him winning by decision is if he gets too confident in his striking.

UFC Lightweight Bout – Sean Sherk (37-4-1) vs. Evan Dunham (11-0) – Sherk used to dominate the division with his strength and wrestling, but recently his opponents have been able to avoid his takedowns with their strength and they have been faster with their striking, which has caused Sherk to lose two of his last three bouts. Dunham has that same style to beat Sherk. Sherk will struggle to get the fight to the ground and Dunham will be a little quicker to the punch. I like Dunham to win this fight by decision.

UFC Lightweight Bout – Melvin Guillard (43-9-3) vs. Jeremy Stephens (18-5) – This fight should be explosive as both have big power and like to swing with everything they have in each punch. The key in this bout will be Guillard’s inability to fight off his back as Stephens trains with Hermes Franca and has some grappling skills that many haven’t seen yet. I see Stephens getting takedowns late to set up for some ground and pound and a TKO finish in the third.

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UFC 113 Picks & Predictions

Tonight brings the rematch of Lyoto Machida and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua with UFC 113: Machida vs. Shogun 2 from the Bell Centre in Montreal. The card doesn’t have a lot of overwhelming bouts outside of the main event, but each fight should be interesting. Here are my picks for tonight’s main card:

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship – Lyoto Machida (16-0) vs. Mauricio Rua (18-4) – Shogun exposed weaknesses in Machida’s once-thought unstoppable style in the first meeting at UFC 104. Now, in this rematch, look for Machida to approach the fight from a different style and make the proper adjustments to win this fight decisively. Shogun gave one of his best efforts at UFC 104 and he has the potential to win this fight, but Machida has a better team around him to have him prepared to win this contest. I like Machida to win by TKO in round four.

UFC Welterweight Bout – Josh Koscheck (16-4) vs. Paul Daley (23-8-2) – This fight will determine who will coach alongside UFC Welterweight Champion, Georges St. Pierre, in the next Ultimate Fighter and also be the new No. 1 contender to St. Pierre’s title. This fight can be won by Koscheck if he checks his ego at the door and takes the fight to the ground as Daley is the better and more powerful striker but struggles on the ground. Look for Koscheck to feel Daley out early, but eventually rely on his wrestling skills to get the fight to the ground where he will sink in a choke in round two.

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MMA Review for Friday, February 6

Georges St. PierreHere’s a weekly rundown of MMA content from Ben Goldstein of CagePotato.com:

UFC 94 produced a record eight fights that went to decision, a one-sided thrashing in the main event, and a greasing scandal that could taint the accomplishments of welterweight king Georges St. Pierre. If you missed it, check out this video of St. Pierre/Penn fight, and this collection of photos from the event.

– Strikeforce picked over the carcass of Pro Elite, and will be broadcasting live MMA events featuring former EliteXC fighters on Showtime beginning in April.

– The WEC has added a 125-pound flyweight division to their roster. (Or as we like to call it, the “Kid Brother Division.”) Will a women’s division be next?

– Former UFC heavyweight champ Andrei Arlovski is leaving MMA for boxing.

– What recession? Three of the UFC’s four best-selling pay-per-view events of all time have taken place in the last three months.

– The moronic MySpace ramblings of former Ultimate Fighter castmember Jon “War Machine” Koppenhaver have gotten him fired from yet another fight promotion.

– UFC Fight Night 17, featuring Joe Lauzon vs. Jeremy Stephens and Mac Danzig vs. Josh Neer, airs tomorrow night on Spike TV at 9 p.m. ET. Check out our interviews with the headliners here and here, read up on the fighters who will be making their UFC debuts, and don’t forget to head over to CagePotato.com during or after the event to check out our thrilling liveblog.

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