Lions’ approach with No. 1 pick is all wrong
When Matt Millen was finally relieved of his general manager duties last year, Lion fans had a renewed sense of hope. Even though Martin Mayhew wasn’t a big, outside name that was coming in to save a burning franchise, Detroit fans reveled in the fact that he wasn’t Millen.
Up to this point, Mayhew’s first offseason has been relatively quiet. The Lions haven’t made any big splashes in free agency, but have added quality pieces to their defense in cornerback Phillip Buchanon and tackle Grady Jackson. The team also made it a priority to re-sign long-time veteran kicker Jason Hanson.
Much of the focus for Mayhew and the Lions revolves around the draft, where they have three selections in the first 33 picks. With major holes at quarterback, middle linebacker and offensive tackle, the Lions will essentially attempt to address two of those needs with the No. 1 and No. 20 picks.
But is Mayhew already screwing things up?
The Lions have stated all along that they wanted to get the No. 1 pick under contract before the start of the April 25 draft. So they began working with the agents of top prospects Aaron Curry, Matthew Stafford and Jason Smith roughly a week ago, and even have a even struck a deal with Curry, who is the top linebacker prospect in the draft.
But even with a contract in place with Curry, the Lions are reportedly waiting to hear from Stafford, who seemingly would be their first choice at No. 1. If you read between the lines, Detroit wants Stafford but only if he agrees to a contract before the draft. If he doesn’t, then Detroit will go with Curry.
On the surface, this seems like a realistic game plan. There are three players that the Lions like, so they’re basing their final decision on money. What’s the big deal?
The big deal is that if the Lions aren’t completely sold on Stafford, why are they even considering taking him? He’s a quarterback – not a long snapper. Mayhew and the Lions should be tripping over themselves to get to the podium to select him – not waiting to see if he’ll agree to a reasonable contract. This isn’t Money Management 101 – this is the freaking NFL.
Look I get it, the rookie salary cap is so screwed up and that’s part of the reason the Lions have to approach their situation in this manner. But this is a team coming off an 0-16 season so above all else, they can’t afford to get this pick wrong. They need a slam-dunk and if Stafford isn’t it, then they should be concentrating on which player is.
Mayhew should be working day and night with new head coach Jim Schwartz on figuring out what player best fits everything the Lions are trying to accomplish on the field. As much as the rookie salary cap has to factor into this decision, it still can’t be the deciding factor. This isn’t like going to the grocery store to buy laundry detergent and coming home with whatever is on sale. The Lions need to get the player right above all else.
This whole notion that they have to take a quarterback because they need one is wrong, too. Do they need a quarterback? Absolutely. Is Stafford the best quarterback prospect in this draft? Yes. But at the end of the day, his strengths as a player have to fit what the Lions want to accomplish offensively. And if his strengths don’t match, then Detroit should go with another player and attempt to address their quarterback need at another time.
For the record, this has nothing to do with Curry. I’ve said all along that he should be the Lions pick for these three reasons: He’s the best prospect in the draft, he fills a major need and if the Lions are so worried about money, he comes significantly cheaper than Stafford and Smith. Looking for a slam-dunk? Curry might be the closest thing to it in this draft.
Maybe in the end, Mayhew and the Lions won’t screw this up. Maybe they’ll make this decision based on financial reasons and still wind up taking the right player. But if I were a Lion fan, I’d be scared to death that my team is clearly not 100% convinced that Stafford (i.e. a quarterback – the most important position on the field) can ultimately win them games.
Follow the Scores Report editors on Twitter @clevelandteams and @bullzeyedotcom.
As Bill Lumbergh (from “Office Space”) would say, I’m going to go ahead and disagree with you on this one. (And I need you to come in on Saturday to get those TPS reports done.)
The notion that the Lions should only take Stafford if he’s a slam dunk assumes that there is such a thing. In any draft there are only degrees of certainty. Peyton Manning was a #1 pick and he turned out great. But Tim Couch, David Carr and Alex Smith were all supposed to be “sure things” too and none have panned out.
It makes sense to me that the Lions would go with Curry assuming Stafford’s price is too high. There’s a threshold where his monetary demands become too large given the risk associated with drafting a QB in the first round. They might have a QB or two that they like with their next pick or two, and are weighing Stafford’s price/talent ratio with the chances that those guys could pan out as well (at a much lower price).
This also tells me that the Lions are using Curry as leverage to get Stafford to be reasonable in his contract negotiations. Everyone wants to be the #1 overall pick and if his camp knows Detroit is sold on him, then he holds all the cards.
I actually like the way they’re playing this.
Stafford is the best pick for the lions at #1. Yes he is not as polished as some may want, but who helps the weapons like Calvin Johnson and the 2nd yr RB? The strong armed QB. The lions need 20 or so new players, so its hard to say with 2 round picks what to do. I still think Stafford is a great choice. The energy he will bring is greater and the lift in spirits will be too.
Anybody not drafted by Matt Millen is a step in the right direction for this team.
JP,
You’re assuming that the Lions have Stafford and Curry rated on the same level. If that’s the case, then I agree with you and your line of reasoning. They have two prospects that they both love, one is cheaper and plays a position that has a higher success rate in the first round, while the other is more expensive and plays a position that has a higher bust rate.
But the Lions clearly don’t value these two players evenly because if they did, they would be printing Curry’s name on the back of Lions jerseys in Detroit right now. They’re waiting to see if Stafford will agree to a contract and if he does, then he’s going to be the pick. So clearly it goes: Stafford 1, Curry 2.
You twisted my words around with the slam-dunk reference. I know that there is no such thing as a slam-dunk in the draft and the Lions know that too. What I’m saying is that Matthew Stafford is a freaking quarterback – the leader of your offense and the one that a team needs to come through in the fourth quarter when the game is on the line. And the Lions aren’t completely sold that he can be that guy. So why is he even in the discussion? Because he plays a position of need? Because they might be able to sign him to a contract? They’re not completely sold and therefore they’re basing their decision on money and contracts – two things that don’t matter when guys actually step onto the field.
Last year the Falcons were in love with two players heading into the draft: Matt Ryan and Glenn Dorsey. If they based their final decision on which player would have a lower bust rate and came with a cheaper price tag, it would have been Dorsey. But because Thomas Dimitroff and Mike Smith believed that Ryan could lead their offense and sure up the most important position on the field, they took him. They didn’t let money come into the final decision and obviously it worked out.
Do you know why the Patriots win every year? Because they match the right players to their schemes. That should be every team’s line of reasoning when taking players on draft day.
My overall point is that in the end, money should have nothing to do with this decision. If the Lions feel Matthew Stafford is the next Peyton Manning or Matt Ryan or Ben Roethlisberger or whoever, then they should take him and pay him. Because you know what? If he turns out to be that good, then they’re going to have to pay him down the line no matter what.
The big deal is that if the Lions aren’t completely sold on Stafford, why are they even considering taking him?
Whether or not they are sold on Stafford isn’t the question. Since they are considering taking him with the #1 pick, they are sold on him, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t an inherent amount of risk involved with drafting a QB in the first round. At a certain price point, the risk is worth it, and when you start going above that price point, maybe the risk isn’t worth it, especially when there’s another player they like at a reduced cost.
But the Lions clearly don’t value these two players evenly because if they did, they would be printing Curry’s name on the back of Lions jerseys in Detroit right now. They’re waiting to see if Stafford will agree to a contract and if he does, then he’s going to be the pick. So clearly it goes: Stafford 1, Curry 2.
You’re using the word “clearly” a lot to make it seem you’re talking about established facts when *clearly* you are not.
At the same price, the Lions would prefer Stafford over Curry, but you can’t just ignore how much money each of these guys are going to cost. Since you used a grocery store reference earlier, I’ll use one here. It’s like buying beer. On one hand, you’ve got this beer that your buddy told you about, but you’ve never tried it, so you’re not so sure you’re going to like it. It sounds good and has a nice bottle, but you’re reluctant to take the plunge on buying a six pack since it’s so expensive. Let’s say a sixer is $9. On the other hand, you have your tried and true favorite beer — Bud Light. You know what it’s going to taste like and you know it isn’t going to be disappointing. The store is charging $5 for a sixer. Which are you going to choose? At those price points, probably the Bud Light. But if there’s a sale, and the expensive beer is only $6.50 or $7, you might throw down the extra couple of bucks, roll the dice and see how it goes.
So price is one of the things that has to be taken into account when drafting a player, and it’s especially important at the top of the draft. Look at those three QBs I mentioned — Couch, Carr and Smith. Those teams invested a boatload of money and continued to struggle until they moved on. It’s extremely difficult to win a lot of games after coming up with snake eyes on a first round QB since there is so much money invested in him.
My overall point is that in the end, money should have nothing to do with this decision. If the Lions feel Matthew Stafford is the next Peyton Manning or Matt Ryan or Ben Roethlisberger or whoever, then they should take him and pay him. Because you know what? If he turns out to be that good, then they’re going to have to pay him down the line no matter what.
Fine. If he’s good, then they’ll have to pay him, but that doesn’t mean they can’t save some money in the short term. For all we know, the Lions are dead set on drafting Stafford no matter the price, but they are WISELY playing hard ball to try to scare Stafford’s camp enough so that they can get the best possible deal.
Besides, what’s the downside to this? So what if it doesn’t work? Worst case scenario, they draft Stafford and pay him a shitload of money. That’s what you’re advocating they do from the start. Maybe they get him at a discount, maybe they don’t. Maybe they decide that his price is too much considering the inherent risk (and possible options later in the round or draft) so they go with the sure starter in Curry.
The Lions are doing the right thing here.
Whether or not they are sold on Stafford isn’t the question.
Yeah, it is. Again, we’re talking about a team deciding on a quarterback here, not the kid that runs onto the field to collect the tee after the kickoff.
You’re using the word “clearly” a lot to make it seem you’re talking about established facts when *clearly* you are not.
Erroneous! Erroneous on all accounts!
At the same price, the Lions would prefer Stafford over Curry, but you can’t just ignore how much money each of these guys are going to cost.
Yes I can, because again, we’re talking about the quarterback position here. We’re not talking about an offensive lineman and a defensive lineman. You’re keeping Stafford and Curry on the same level, yet I think you would agree that quarterback carries more importance than a linebacker in the overall construction of a team. Is linebacker important? No question. Is it as important as finding a franchise quarterback? Absolutely not.
And your beer reference was well thought out, but you missed my point about the laundry detergent. Deciding whether or not a player is a franchise-caliber quarterback isn’t like buying beer or laundry detergent or gum. The final decision can’t be made based on dollars and sense. Not when it comes down to deciding on whether or not to take a franchise quarterback.
So price is one of the things that has to be taken into account when drafting a player, and it’s especially important at the top of the draft. Look at those three QBs I mentioned — Couch, Carr and Smith. Those teams invested a boatload of money and continued to struggle until they moved on. It’s extremely difficult to win a lot of games after coming up with snake eyes on a first round QB since there is so much money invested in him.
I highly doubt that the Browns, Texans and Bengals based their final decision on drafting those quarterbacks because of price. They thought that those quarterbacks could get them to the playoffs, Super Bowl, etc. Do you think the Colts based their decision on whether or not to take Manning based on price? Nope.
Fine. If he’s good, then they’ll have to pay him, but that doesn’t mean they can’t save some money in the short term. For all we know, the Lions are dead set on drafting Stafford no matter the price, but they are WISELY playing hard ball to try to scare Stafford’s camp enough so that they can get the best possible deal.
If that’s what they’re trying to do, then I’m wrong and I’ll tip my cap to Mayhew. But if Stafford doesn’t agree to a contract before the draft and they take Curry because of it, then they went about this all wrong IMO. That’s still not to say that they’ll wind up drafting the wrong player (remember, I think they should take Curry) or wind up with the best outcome at the end of the day, but their reasoning is backwards.
Besides, what’s the downside to this? So what if it doesn’t work? Worst case scenario, they draft Stafford and pay him a shitload of money. That’s what you’re advocating they do from the start. Maybe they get him at a discount, maybe they don’t. Maybe they decide that his price is too much considering the inherent risk (and possible options later in the round or draft) so they go with the sure starter in Curry.
The downside is that they pass on Stafford because of a contract situation and he turns out to be a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback. Again, if he’s good, they’ll have to pay him no matter what.
I see you skipped right over my Ryan/Dorsey comparison. Well played…
Yeah, it is. Again, we’re talking about a team deciding on a quarterback here, not the kid that runs onto the field to collect the tee after the kickoff.
Oh, I was under the assumption that we were talking about the kid that runs onto the field to collect the tee after the kickoff. My bad.
BTW, you know you sound exactly like Mel Kiper right now, don’t you?
I highly doubt that the Browns, Texans and Bengals based their final decision on drafting those quarterbacks because of price.
When did I say that they did? I’m not sure how you missed it, but my point was that those teams drafted a QB #1 overall, struck out, and then paid the price for several years after. There’s a lot on the line here, so if the Lions say that they think Stafford is the guy, great, but in this case it looks like that only goes up to a certain price point. They don’t KNOW he’s the guy. No one does. It’s risk vs. reward. The money is part of the risk.
The downside is that they pass on Stafford because of a contract situation and he turns out to be a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback. Again, if he’s good, they’ll have to pay him no matter what.
Again, not the point. I asked what’s the downside of playing hardball with Stafford if they intend to draft him? A: There is no downside.
I see you skipped right over my Ryan/Dorsey comparison. Well played…
The Falcons thought Matt Ryan was ready to go, and they were right. Is Stafford coming in with the same credentials as Ryan? It seems to me that there is more doubt surrounding him, and if so, then the Lions are wise to keep their options open.
Again, the Lions might feel that that he’s worth the risk at price point A but not worth the risk at price point B. Maybe they have a guy they like later on in the draft, or maybe they’re just trying to drive his price down. Regardless, they’re keeping everyone guessing, and that’s a good thing.