I love doing predictions at this time of year because college football fans are usually extra testy. (Uh, even more testy than they normally are.)

God forbid you pick against their teams at this time of year, because you’re an undeniable idiot if you do. (Uh, more an idiot than you normally are.)

Just remember College Football Superfan, these predictions are just for fun. If I really knew what the hell I was talking about, I would be in Vegas right now sitting poolside with a bucket of beer laying next to me. Instead, I’m sitting at my desk…which is miles and miles away from anything resembling Vegas.

On to the picks!

SEC Championship: No. 1 Auburn (12-0) vs. No. 19 South Carolina, 4:00PM ET
Only a fool would pick against Auburn right now and I sir, am no fool. Actually, I’ve been picking against them all year and I’m sick of being burned. I picked South Carolina in late September to cover against the Tigers. Boom, roasted. I picked Arkansas in mid-October to cover against the Tigers. Boom, roasted. The following week I picked LSU to win outright. Boom, roasted. I picked Georgia to cover. Boom, roasted. I picked Alabama to win outright and cover. BOOM, ROASTED. The only time I took one of Auburn’s opponents to cover and actually got it right was a month ago when they played Ole Miss. But whatever. I picked against them damn near every week, so I was bound to be right one of those times. But not this week – I’m going with Auburn. I don’t care what the matchup looks like and I’m not going to dive into the X’s and O’s. I’m just going to sit back, watch them fall behind by two scores in the first half and then enjoy as Cam Newton rattles off four touchdowns in the fourth quarter to win by 10.
THE PICK: AUBURN –5.5. Boom, roasted.

ACC Championship: No. 21 Florida State (9-3) vs. No. 15 Virginia Tech (10-2), 7:45PM ET
After losing to Boise State and James Madison to open up the season, the Hokies have rattled off 10-straight wins and will now meet a Seminoles team that has won three in a row following their own two-game skid. Tyrod Taylor and Christian Ponder will get most of the attention (and rightfully so), but defense wins this one in the end. VA Tech has only given up six touchdowns in the fourth quarter this season and has been outstanding in crunch time. This is about as even a matchup as one could make, but I think the Hokie defense prevails in the end and VA Tech holds on.
THE PICK: VIRGINIA TECH –3.5

Big 12 Championship: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Nebraska, 8:00PM ET
After the way they lit up the scoreboard against Oklahoma State last Saturday, I get the feeling that people expect the Sooners to roll this weekend. Everyone gravitates to offensive teams and that doesn’t fit Nebraska despite their 45-17 dismantling of a crap Colorado team last weekend. That said, OU running back DeMarco Murray injured his knee in the win over the Cowboys and while Bob Stoops is optimistic about the senior’s chances of playing this Saturday, it’s not a given. Either way, Murray may be limited, which isn’t a good sign seeing as how Nebraska ranks fifth in the nation in total defense. This game kind of reminds me of last year’s Big 12 title game, when many people outside of Lincoln thought that Texas would roll. But Bo Pelini’s squad held firm and nearly won the game in the end. I think we see a repeat of last year and Nebraska gives Oklahoma hell for four quarters.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA +4.5

Other picks, minus the foreplay:

Northern Illinois –17. (Friday)
Washington –5.5
Pittsburgh +2
Oregon State +17
Boise State –37.5
UCLA +6
Troy -5

If you’re not fading my ass by now, then there’s something definitely wrong with your think tank.

Over the past three weeks I’ve gone 0-4, 1-3 and then 0-4 again last week. The worst of it is, I wasn’t even close last Saturday. I said the five points that you had to lay with Utah was a gift against Notre Dame and the only gift was my pick of the Utes (who laid down nicely against the Irish). Georgia hung with Auburn for most of the game but then went quietly into the night. Florida and Texas were jokes, as were my picks of them to cover.

Whatever. I’m now 14-22 on the year with little hope of turning this thing around. If you don’t fade me now, then forever hold your peace.

No. 13 Arkansas @ No. 21 Mississippi State, 7:00PM ET
If the Bulldogs can’t get their 18th-ranked running game going then they’ll have a tough time keeping up with Ryan Mallett and Arkansas’ high-powered offense. Mississippi State’s defense has played well this season but its offense lacks that big-play potential. I think the Bulldogs will make a game of it early but eventually the Razorbacks will be too much for MSU to handle. The Hogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and 8-1 ATS in their last eight conference games.
THE PICK: ARKANSAS –3

Purdue @ No. 12 Michigan State, 12:00PM ET
The Spartans are probably overdue for a slip up but with a Big Ten title in their sights, I don’t think they fall this weekend against a punchless Boilermaker team. The home team is 9-2-1 against the number in the last 12 meetings between these two programs and Purdue is just 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to East Lansing. The Boilermakers might have a tough time slowing down MSU’s explosive running game and don’t expect Sparty to let up in the fourth quarter when they’re up big. There’s no time for them to take their foot off the gas when they need two victories to secure a Big Ten crown.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE –20

No. 10 Oklahoma State @ Kansas, 12:00PM ET
Kansas’ wins this season were against the following: Georgia Tech, New Mexico State and Colorado (which they trailed by 28 in the fourth quarter and need a miracle comeback to win). Their victory over the Yellow Jackets was impressive, but this is a team that has largely been blown out against good and even average teams. They lost 55-7 at Baylor, 59-7 against Kansas State and 45-10 against Texas A&M. I know they somewhat held Nebraska in check last week but Oklahoma State’s offense is too explosive for the Jayhawks to keep things close this Saturday. The Cowboys roll.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE –24

Ole Miss @ No. 5 LSU, 3:30PM ET
I have a buddy who always picks the No. 16 seeds against the No. 1 seeds in the March Madness tournament every year so that if one day it happens, he can claim that he “called the upset.” I feel like him right now when it comes to LSU. For weeks I’ve been saying that LSU will fall to a suspect opponent but every time I pick against them, they win and cover easily. The one time I picked them to cover was against Auburn and – surprise! – that was the Tigers’ only loss of the year. But I’m going back to the well at least one more time: Ole Miss plus the points.
THE PICK: OLE MISS +16.5

Season Record: 14-22. I don’t know what to say, so I think it’s best if I don’t say anything and just bow my head in shame.

Ugh.

After going 3-1 two weeks ago, I successfully predicted a downfall last Saturday by putting forth a brutal effort. Alabama (no front door cover, Tide?), South Carolina (couldn’t hang onto that lead, Cocks?) and LSU (only 20 points at home, Tigers?) were all losers, while my only winner was Temple over Penn State (even though the Owls tried to blow that one for me late).

Here goes a better effort this week…

No. 17 Ohio State –16.5 at Illinois, 12:00PMET
Lay the points. The Buckeyes are 4-0 against the spread this year and have done it in rather easy fashion. I realize this is their first road test of the year, not to mention their first Big Ten game, but Ohio State is the far superior team and should roll. The Buckeyes haven’t lost to the Illini since 1991 and while Illinois has hung with them in recent years, it’ll be too much Terrelle Pryor this Saturday.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE –16.5

No. 11 Wisconsin vs. No. 24 Michigan State +2, 3:30PM ET
The Spartans will certainly get a lift from Mark Dantonio, who returns to the sidelines (the press box, actually) this weekend after suffering a heart attack following MSU’s overtime win over Notre Dame two weeks ago. The Spartans have rushed for over 200 yards in each of their first four games and while the Badgers have a potent rushing attack themselves, I like MSU to win outright in East Lansing. Every year the Spartans beat an opponent they’re not supposed to and while a win on Saturday would hardly be shocking, it would still be considered an upset with Wisconsin ranked 11th in the nation.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE +2

Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina State +4, 3:30PM ET
I feel as though people are falling asleep on this NC State team, which is coming off impressive wins over Cincinnati and Georgia Tech the past two weekends. They don’t have a great rushing offense, but their passing game led by Russell Wilson ranks 19th in the nation and they’re averaging 37.75 points per game. After losing to Boise State and James Madison earlier in the year, VA Tech has gotten back on track with wins over East Carolina and Boston College the past two weekends. That said, there’s still something missing from this team and while Tyrod Taylor has made a ton of highlight reel plays, he leads an offense that is 87th in passing. I think NC State keeps this game within a field goal and covers.
THE PICK: NC STATE +4

No. 3 Boise State –43.5 vs. New Mexico State, 8:00PM ET
Usually I don’t even consider games that have point spreads of over 30 points because of the threat of a backdoor cover, but I always make an exception when New Mexico State is involved. As long as the Broncos don’t take their foot off the gas I could see them scoring in the 60s this weekend. The Aggies rank second-to-last in total defense among FBS teams and the Broncos can ill-afford to suffer a letdown now that they’re ranked third in the nation. Boise rolls.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE –43.5

Season Record: 4-4

By the end of the day today, we could have a whole new look at the national title picture. Then again, you could say that any week in college football.

This time, however, there’s actually a chance that things could get jumbled up. The top team in the country, Alabama, is facing by far its stiffest test of the season as it travels to Fayetteville to take on Ryan Mallett and Arkansas. No. 3 Boise State will play in its second — and probably last — “showcase” game of the year when it plays host to Oregon State.

We know that if Boise State loses, a lot of the debate about who deserves what will go away, at least until we have to sort through a handful of one-loss teams at the end of the season (but we’ll save that for later). If the Tide lose and the Broncos win, is Boise all of the sudden in the driver’s seat for a spot in the title game? Probably not, actually.

It’s a big slate today, so find a spot on the couch by the mid-afternoon games and settle in for some good football. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week was the first time I posted predictions for the new college football season and after going 3-1, I’m fired up for a reversal of fortune this Saturday. (The college football prediction gods can be a very fickle bunch, not unlike their cousins, the NFL prediction gods.)

Ohio State, Alabama and Arizona State were winners in Week 3, while Texas Tech was my only loser. Here are my predictions for Week 4.

No. 1 Alabama –7 vs. No. 10 Arkansas, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
This game makes my head hurt. I can absolutely see a good Razorback team staying with the Tide for four quarters before finally succumbing to defeat and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Arkansas pulled off the upset entirely. But now that Alabama is back at full strength with Mark Ingram’s return, something tells me Nick Saban’s squad flexes its muscles this weekend. ‘Bama held quarterback Ryan Mallett to only 160 passing yards last year and intercepted him once. Mallett is a better quarterback then he was in September of last year (where the Tide cruised to a 35-7 victory), but ‘Bama has the second best pass defense in the country and I think the Razorback QB is going to have a tough go of things again this year.
THE PICK: ALABAMA -7

Temple +13.5 at No. 23 Penn State, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
No longer are the Owls just a patsy for the Nittany Lions, who have often scheduled Temple early in the year as a tune up game. Temple is 3-0 and coming off a two-touchdown win over a Connecticut team that people had high hopes for entering the year. Penn State routed Kent State 24-0, but are just two weeks removed from a brutal effort against Alabama. Freshman quarterback Robert Bolden is still trying to find his way and has turned the ball over at least once in each of his first three games. The Lions haven’t lost to Temple since 1941, but I think this game will be closer than people expect.
THE PICK: TEMPLE +13.5

No. 12 South Carolina +3 at No. 17 Auburn, Saturday, 7:45PM ET
With this game being played in Auburn, the line is set right. But I still feel as though South Carolina isn’t getting the respect it deserves. The Gamecocks routed a better-than-average Southern Miss team on opening night, then dominated Georgia 17-6 before waxing Furman, 38-19. Auburn, meanwhile, took it to Arkansas State in the first weekend, barely edged college football’s equivalent of the Seattle Mariners (Mississippi State) in Week 2 and then had to come from behind to top Clemson last week. Thanks to Cameron Newton, Onterio McCalebb and Michael Dyer, the Tigers can run the football but South Carolina has the sixth-best run defense in the nation and I see them containing the Tigers’ offensive attack. Again, the line is set right but I like the Gamecocks.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA +3

No. 22 West Virginia at No. 15 LSU -10, Saturday, 9:00PM ET
The Tigers are a very quiet 3-0 right now. After nearly blowing a win against North Carolina in the opening week, their defense has looked solid the past two Saturdays in wins over Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. The Tigers have won 28 consecutive home games against non-conference foes, although they have lost their past three home games against top 25 opponents. Still, West Virginia has had issues with turnovers the past three weeks and needed overtime to beat Marshall two weeks ago. Noel Devine will have a tough time finding room against the 16th-best run defense in the nation and Jordan Jefferson should have no problem moving the ball through the air against the Mountaineers’ suspect secondary.
THE PICK: LSU –10

Season Record: 3-1

I have yet to make any college football predictions for the new year, so what better time to start than now? Here are a couple of picks to fade come Saturday. (It’s not that I’m not confident. I’m just confident that I don’t have a clue what I’m doing – big difference.)

Ohio at No. 2 Ohio State, 12:00PM ET
The Buckeyes appear to be a pony that you can back all season. They have a top 5 defense, Terrelle Pryor isn’t turning the ball over like Jake Delhomme on a NFL Sunday and any one of their top three runners (Pryor, Dan Herron, Brandon Saine) could take one to the house at any time. Ohio, meanwhile, beat Wofford and then lost to Toledo 20-13 at home last week. They lack offensive firepower and while their defense can compete against MAC opponents, OSU shouldn’t have any problems lighting up the scoreboard on Saturday. I always fear the backdoor cover in a game like this, but hopefully the Buckeyes score about 80 and it won’t matter.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE –29.5

No. 1 Alabama at Duke, 3:30PM ET
Same thing here as the game above – I fear the backdoor cover (especially with ‘Bama playing on the road), but I’m willing to lay the points in what should be a rout. Duke gave up 27 to Elon (who?) in Week 1 and 54 to Wake Forest last week. Considering Mark Ingram is coming back this Saturday and the Tide will be at full strength offensively, anything less than 50 out of Alabama will be a disappointment. On the other side of the ball, ‘Bama has only allowed six points this season. Penn State needed three and a half quarters just to get on the scoreboard with a field goal last week and by that point, the game was already in the books.
THE PICK: ALABAMA –23.5

Arizona State +12.5 at. Wisconsin, 3:30PM ET
Wisconsin has won 25 straight home games against unranked opponents, but they’re 0-2 against the spread this year, which includes a lackluster 27-14 win over a brutal San Jose State team last weekend. Michigan transfer Steven Threet is now the Sun Devils’ starter and he holds a 1-0 record against the Badgers in his short collegiate career. I don’t see ASU winning this game outright (especially considering they’ve lost six straight to FBS schools), but I’ll take the 12.5 points with thunderstorms expected to hit in Madison by game time.
THE PICK: ARIZONA STATE +12.5

No. 6 Texas at Texas Tech +3, 8:00PM ET
There’s something about Lubbock that doesn’t sit well with Mack Brown. The Longhorns are only 3-3 under Brown at Texas Tech and the last time these two teams met here, Michael Crabtree shocked a then-ranked No. 1 Texas team with a last-second touchdown. The Longhorns didn’t look particularly sharp in their first two games of the season, although both were victories. Tech, meanwhile, staved off a late comeback by SMU in Week 1 and then waxed New Mexico 52-17 last Saturday. There’s just something about Lubbock that gives the Raiders a significant edge in this matchup, which is why I like Tech to win outright (but go ahead and give me the points anyway…you know, so they don’t go to waste).
THE PICK: TEXAS TECH +3

Conference winners, sleepers, power rankings and one big, fat national championship prediction.

Enjoy.

Big Ten

Champion: Ohio State
Yes, it’s true – the Buckeyes need Terrelle Pryor to be more consistent in the passing game this year if they expect to win a national championship. But stop acting like that’s the difference between OSU winning the Big Ten and them turning into Vanderbilt. Choke on this for a second: The Buckeyes return all three leading rushers from 2009 in Pryor, Brandon Saine and Dan Herron, the secondary features three senior NFL prospects, and they own the best defensive end in the nation in Cameron Heyward. Pryor is also coming off a dominating performance against Oregon in the Rose Bowl and reports state that he has committed himself this offseason to being a better teammate. Sorry Buckeye-haters, but the gap between them and Alabama is closer than you think.

Conference Champion Sleeper: Michigan Slate
My biggest concern with the Spartans is that despite pulling off an upset nearly every year, they also manage to lose a game they shouldn’t. But they have a slew of playmakers and plenty of depth on both sides of the ball, plus feature a ton of offensive firepower in Larry Caper, Edwin Baker, Keith Nicol and Mark Dell. Oh, and linebacker Greg Jones is the best defender in the nation. If this team can avoid being tripped up by an inferior opponent, they could easily surprise this season.

Conference Power Ranking: #1 Ohio State, #2 Iowa, #3 Wisconsin, # 4 Penn State, #5 Michigan State, #6 Northwestern, #7 Michigan, #8 Purdue, #9 Illinois, #10 Indiana, #11 Minnesota.

I admit that I had Michigan rated too high when I did my Big Ten preview last week. Having any sort of trust in Rich Rodriguez right now is a dangerous proposition for obvious reasons. Just when you think he’s going to figure things out in Ann Arbor, he makes a decision to muck everything up. Penn State might be ranked a little high given their quarterback concerns. Wisconsin is going to give teams trouble this year and Northwestern is going to be a tough opponent every week as well.

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I’ve been on a roll of late, going 8-0 straight up the last two weeks and 7-1 against the spread. Let’s hope I didn’t just pour a big cup of jinx over everything this week.

No. 9 LSU at No. 3 Alabama, 3:30PM ET
A win this week secures the SEC West title for Alabama, while a victory for LSU puts them in the driver’s seat in the West, as well as keeps their national title hopes alive. While they eventually won the game thanks to a blocked field goal, there were some glaring issues with Alabama’s passing game in their victory over Tennessee two weeks ago. Mark Ingram is one of the best players in college football, but he can’t be expected to carry the offense week in and week out. Quarterback Greg McElroy must become more efficient in the passing game and test defenses vertically more than he has. The Tide beat the Tigers last year, but they had previously lost five straight to LSU so that’s a concern for Nick Saban. I don’t think the Tigers have enough offense to overcome the Tide’s No. 4 ranked defense, but this game is going to be close throughout and this might be another contest that isn’t decided for ‘Bama until the final seconds.
Odds: Alabama –7.5.
Prediction: Alabama 16, LSU 13.

No. 16 Ohio State at No. 11 Penn State, 3:30PM ET
This was supposed to be the game that decided things in the Big Ten. But with how well Iowa has played this year, one of these two teams will likely be knocked out of contention with a loss. It’s hard to imagine that OSU quarterback Terrelle Pryor will walk into Beaver Stadium the way that he has struggled this year and beat a good Penn State defense…with his arm. Pryor isn’t going to win this game throwing for 250 yards (does he ever throw for 250 yards?), but if he can keep the chains moving with his legs and not turn the ball over, I bet Ohio State wins this game with its defense. This is going to be your classic Big Ten defensive struggle and the Buckeyes are due to pull off an upset of this magnitude. Penn State knocked off Ohio State last year on its home turf, and I’m calling for the Buckeyes to return the favor this season.
Odds: Penn State –3.5
Prediction: Ohio State 17, Penn State 16.

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No. 5 USC at No. 10 Oregon, 8:00PM ET ABC
The game of the week is in Eugene this Saturday, as the Ducks host the Trojans in a battle for Pac-10 supremacy. The last time the Trojans traveled to Eugene, they were beaten 24-17 and if they don’t want to suffer defeat again this year, they better sure up their defense. Oregon ranks 14th in the nation in rushing and could take advantage of an aggressive USC front four that doesn’t always play disciplined. Running back LaMichael James has enough burst to bounce runs outside if the Trojans’ defensive ends are too quick to crash inside in efforts to take away runs between the tackles. On the flip side, Oregon’s O-line must protect quarterback Jeremiah Masoli better or else the Ducks’ passing game could be non-existent. Although the Trojans’ offense is starting to take shape under freshman Matt Barkley, Oregon has the sixth best pass efficiency defense in the country and are holding opponents to less than 17 points a game. I like the home team getting points in this matchup and am calling the outright upset.
Odds: USC –3.5.
Prediction: Oregon 27, USC 24.

No. 3 Texas at No. 14 Oklahoma State, 8:00PM ET
When I first looked at the point spread for this game, I was surprised to see that a good Oklahoma State team was getting nine points at home. But history doesn’t favor the Cowboys in this matchup and the Longhorns definitely have the overall edge. Although OK State has had its opportunities over the years, Texas has won the last 11 games in this matchup and Colt McCoy has owned the Cowboy defense. He has completed 79.4 percent of his passes for 1,019 yards and is 3-0 lifetime against OK State, including owning a 38-35 win in Stillwater in 2007. The Cowboys have won five straight, but they’ve feasted on teams like Rice, Grambling State, Baylor and inconsistent squads like Texas A&M and Missouri. This is a game that should be close throughout, but I actually like Texas to earn a sound victory. No. 2 Alabama is idle this week and the Longhorns will take this opportunity to thump a quality opponent in order to prove to the voters that they deserved to be ranked higher.
Odds: Texas –9.
Prediction: Texas 35, Oklahoma State 20.

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