It was an ugly first half that included a nine-point first quarter from Miami’s new Super Friends, but LeBron James (31-4-3, 8 turnovers) got it going in the second half and led the way as the Heat cut Boston’s 19-point lead down to three. But Rajon Rondo (17 assists) Paul Pierce (19-9-3), Ray Allen (20 points, 5-8 3PT) and Glen Davis (13-5) were too much in the end, and the Celtics prevailed, 88-80.

I actually think the Heat will come away feeling pretty good about the game, given the performance of Dwyane Wade (4-of-16, 13 points) and Chris Bosh (3-of-11, 8 points). Wade didn’t play much at all in the preseason and was obviously shaking off the rust as the game wore on. And let’s not forget that the Heat were without their fourth (or fifth) best player, Mike Miller, who injured his hand and will be out for a while. They also need to figure out how to chase Allen on those off-ball screens. Both Wade and House tried to go over the top when they should just chase, chase and chase some more.

For the Celtics, Shaq (9-7) started the game, but Davis finished it. The best line I saw on Twitter came from @ShotDrJr: “When Big Baby comes in for Shaq, it’s as if the Celtics have opened a nesting doll.” Classic.

Heat fans obviously shouldn’t panic. It was an important game, but the chips were stacked against Miami. Wade was rusty and the Heat haven’t had a chance to work out the offensive kinks, and going up against the league’s best defensive team is not the way to do it. The fact that they scored just nine points in the first quarter and still only lost by eight is actually encouraging.

Now that the top 10 NBA free agents have made up their minds, let’s check in with my list of ‘sure-to-be-wrong’ predictions and see how I fared.

1. Dwyane Wade will re-sign with the Heat.
Check.

2. Chris Bosh will also sign with Miami.
Check.

3. LeBron and Carlos Boozer will sign with Chicago.
I didn’t think that LeBron would join what many consider to be ‘Wade’s Team’ and the Bulls gave him the next-best chance to win a championship, especially if Boozer landed there as well. The Bulls were wise to grab Boozer, who is a very nice fit alongside Joakim Noah.

4. Joe Johnson will sign with the Clippers.
I bought into the report that Johnson was in L.A. leading up to free agency and that he had a good relationship with the Clippers’ GM. The Hawks shocked the league when they offered him a six-year max contract and methinks they’ll be regretting it in 2-3 years. Who would have thought that when everything was said and done, that Joe Johnson would get the biggest contract of this free agent class?

5. Stoudemire will land in the Big Apple.
…”the Knicks will be sure to throw gobs of money to save face after pretty much striking out on the other top free agents.” Yeah, that’s pretty much what happened, though the Knicks were proactive and signed Stoudemire before being shunned by LeBron and Wade. And Amare was happy to lap up the dough after the Suns wanted to negotiate a deal that included incentives related to his health.

6. The Knicks will re-sign David Lee.
Donnie Walsh elected to conserve most of his cap space so that the Knicks can be a player in next summer’s free agency, plus the Lee-for-Randolph trade gives the Knicks a good (and cheap) up-and-coming power forward to replace Lee.

7. The Knicks will trade Eddy Curry for Gilbert Arenas.
This could still happen, but it looks like it won’t, at least not now. The Lee trade signals that the Knicks are going to be careful with their cap space, and trading for Arenas would be a huge risk.

8. The Grizzlies will match a max offer for Rudy Gay.
Technically, this prediction wasn’t correct. The Grizzlies once again raised eyebrows around the league by signing Gay to a max contract without letting the market set his price.

9. Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce re-sign with the Mavs and C’s, respectively.
There were pundits out there that actually thought that Pierce could land with the Nets and that Nowitzki would join LeBron in Chicago, but Boston and Dallas made sure these players stayed put.

Overall, I didn’t do too badly, did I?

Per the Boston Herald…

The club has reached agreement with its captain on a new contract, according to sources. The deal is said to be for four years, with certain options for both sides after the first three.

The numbers were not available, but Pierce will in the 2010-11 season make significantly less that the $21,513,521 he was scheduled to receive. That will aid the Celtics’ position versus the luxury tax.

Pierce will be 33 when the season starts, so a four-year deal seems a bit long, but it sounds like both sides have options in the final year.

The fact that Pierce re-signed with Boston shouldn’t come as a surprise. He said all along that he wanted to retire a Celtic and the team needs him to stay competitive.

Update: The deal is apparently for four years and $61 million per the Boston Globe. This is a good price for a player of Pierce’s caliber.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

The short answer is ‘no.’

As I’ve been perusing the internet today, I see a lot of misinformed fans with the impression that the Heat (or any other team with room for a max player) can add a Mid-Level Exception (MLE) player once the cap space is used up. Ray Allen and Raymond Felton are common names that come up in such a conversation.

But per the NBA Salary Cap FAQ, a team that is under the cap (like the Heat) and is hoping to use up all its cap space signing 2-3 big-name free agents does not have the ability to use their mid-level exception once the cap space is used up.

For example, assume the cap is $49.5 million, and a team has $43 million committed to salaries. They also have a Mid-Level exception for $5 million and a Traded Player exception for $5.5 million. Even though their salaries put them $6.5 million under the cap, their exceptions are added to their salaries, putting them at $53.5 million, or $4 million over the cap. So they actually have no cap room to sign free agents, and instead must use their exceptions.

Teams have the option of renouncing their exceptions in order to claim the cap room. So in the example above, if the team renounced their Traded Player and Mid-Level exceptions, then the $10.5 million is taken off their team salary, which then totals $43 million, leaving them with $6.5 million of cap room which can then be used to sign free agent(s).

In the Heat’s case, the salary cap is $56.1 million and with the minimum salary cap holds required to fill out the roster, they have about $44 million to divvy up between Wade, LeBron and Bosh. ($14.7 million each.) But they only have that much cap space because they renounced (or will renounce) their Traded Player and Mid-Level exceptions. However, they could sign the three superstars at those salary levels and then sign a MLE player next summer if they choose to do so. In fact, the MLE can be divvied up amongst a number of players, which is probably how the Heat would handle the flood of veterans that would want to join the Heat in search of a ring.

The same rule applies if a team has enough space for one max free agent. Take the Clippers, who can afford one max contract. The Clips have that much space because they have renounced (or will renounce) their MLE. If they were to use up their cap space to sign Paul Pierce, the MLE would not be available to them until next summer (assuming they are still over the cap).

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Here’s where I stop ruminating about rumors and pose a few predictions about what will happen in the NBA over the next couple of weeks. Let’s start with a near-sure thing and work our way around the league.

1. Dwyane Wade will re-sign with the Heat.
He has said all along that Miami is where he wants to be, and even if he strikes out on getting LeBron and/or Chris Bosh to join him, he won’t have a tough time recruiting a couple of other high-priced free agents to join him. Whether it’s Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson or Rudy Gay, someone will want to play in sunny South Florida with a Top 5 player who has already proven he can take over an NBA Finals.

2. Chris Bosh will also sign with Miami.
I thought the Bulls might have inside track on Bosh, but if we’re to believe Dan LeBatard, a deal is already in place that would bring Bosh to Miami. Even if LeBron doesn’t join them, Bosh and Wade will make an excellent one-two punch.

3. LeBron and Carlos Boozer will sign with Chicago.
It’s the reunion that no one was expecting. I have no earthly idea what LeBron is going to do, but he says that winning is the most important thing, so if that’s true, he’ll either sign with the Bulls or join Wade and Bosh in Miami. With his ego, I think he’d rather play in Chicago in the shadow of Michael Jordan’s legacy than join ‘Wade’s team’ in South Florida. But who really knows? (Remember, I said these were sure-to-be-wrong predictions.) As for Boozer, if the Bulls strike out on Bosh, he’s the next-best fit at the four. The Bulls could take advantage of his strengths (low-post scoring, rebounding) while Joakim Noah could hide his weaknesses (post defense).

4. Joe Johnson will sign with the Clippers.
Think about it Knick fans — would you want to play under the NY microscope after the city missed out on the big-name free agents? Expectations are so high in the Big Apple and Johnson is a quiet guy that has proven in Atlanta that he doesn’t deal well with critical fans. He’s reportedly close with Clipper GM Neil Olshey and would be a nice fit there since he can play small forward alongside Eric Gordon on the wing.

5. Stoudemire will land in the Big Apple.
I almost wrote “land in New Jersey” but I didn’t want to send any Knick fans off the edge of the Brooklyn Bridge. If predictions #1-#4 come to fruition, the Knicks won’t be a very attractive place to play, but Stoudemire thrived under Mike D’Antoni in Phoenix and the Knicks will be sure to throw gobs of money to save face after pretty much striking out on the other top free agents. D’Antoni can run Stoudemire at the five and…

6. The Knicks will re-sign David Lee…
…to play the four. They’ll be defensively challenged, but that’s life. Then…

7. The Knicks will trade Eddy Curry for Gilbert Arenas…
…which will make them even more defensively challenged, but again, that’s life. At least the Knicks will be fun to watch.

8. The Grizzlies will match a max offer for Rudy Gay.
The Nets (and maybe the T-Wolves) will make a strong run at Rudy Gay, but the Grizzlies’ owner Michael Heisley has said all along that he’ll match any offer Gay gets in free agency.

9. Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce re-sign with the Mavs and C’s, respectively.
These guys aren’t going anywhere.

Photo from fOTOGLIF