Jets @ Broncos, 8:20PM ET, Thursday
Tim Tebow will have a hard time winning another game this season in which he only completes two passes, especially this one tonight against the Jets. I know – I’m going out on a limb with that statement. I fully expect an angry Rex Ryan defense to shut Tebow down but then again, who knows? Maybe Tebow has another surprise up his sleeve. Denver’s defense is certainly good enough to keep this one close and if Mark Sanchez starts turning the ball over and making boneheaded decisions, the Broncos are certainly capable of pulling off the upset.

Eagles @ Giants, 8:20PM ET, Sunday
Last week I saw a team in Philadelphia completely give up. But they always seem to give the Giants problems, especially in New York. If Vince Young (assuming he plays for the injured Michael Vick) comes out motivated, then there’s no reason the Eagles can’t pull off the upset. But Eli Manning is playing some of the best football of his career and Philadelphia’s defense has looked lost under coordinator Juan Castillo. This game could really go either way. The G-Men could roll to an easy victory and keep Dallas at bay in the division, or Philly could surprise and turn the NFC East completely on its head.

Bengals @ Ravens, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
The Ravens have been playing up or down to their competition all year. One week they’re beating the Steelers (twice), Texans and Jets, while the next they’re losing to the Jaguars and Seahawks, or nearly losing at home to the Cardinals. Thus, it’ll be interesting to see how Baltimore comes out for this one. The Ravens blew it by not showing up last Sunday in Seattle and while Cincinnati is banged up, the Bengals have been competitive all season (as evidence in their 6-3 record). Will the real Ravens show up or will they view Cincinnati as an inferior opponent and once again take their foot off the gas?

Chargers @ Bears, 4:15PM ET, Sunday
The Chargers’ loss last week to the Raiders was pretty jarring, even for an underachieving San Diego bunch. Oakland has been competitive all year but the Raiders were banged up on both sides of the ball, were without Darren McFadden and were playing on the road. The Chargers needed to win that game. Instead, they lost for the fourth week in a row and now they have to travel to Chicago to play a red-hot Bears team playing with a ton of confidence right now. With Oakland in Minnesota this Sunday, it’s entirely feasible that the Bolts could be staring at a two-game deficit in the AFC West with six games to go. Philip Rivers has to step up at some point and stop making so many mistakes.

Titans @ Falcons, 4:15PM ET, Sunday
Here are the Falcons’ next five games: home against Tennessee and Minnesota, on the road against Houston and Carolina, and then back home against Jacksonville. There’s no reason Atlanta can’t be 10-4 when it travels to New Orleans for a Week 16 rematch against the Saints, but at some point its offense needs to put it all together. Matt Ryan has to be better, offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey has to be better and Roddy White definitely has to be better. Julio Jones or no Julio Jones, this Falcon offense has too much talent to be this inconsistent. There’s not a doubt in my mind that if Atlanta doesn’t play to its absolute full potential that Tennessee could win this Sunday. The Titans have an extra spring in their step following the news of Matt Schaub’s season-ending injury and their defense could definitely shut the Falcons down if it plays as well as it did last Sunday in Carolina.

Cowboys @ Redskins, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
The Giants sometimes have trouble with the Eagles so this is a prime opportunity for the Cowboys to pick up a big road win and then sit back and see if Philly can knock off New York on Sunday night. If that happens, both New York and Dallas would be 6-4 atop the NFC East. But the ‘Boys can’t get caught looking ahead. The Redskins have been abysmal offensively over the past month but Rex Grossman nearly led Washington to a win in Dallas earlier this season. Of course, that was when the Cowboys couldn’t even snap the ball and had several no-names at receiver, but still – take heed Dallas.

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While my college picks continue to do well, a .500 record for my NFL predictions seems to be out of the question. After hitting the 49ers and Packers in the early games, the Saints were dropkicked by the Bucs and the Vikings…oh, the Vikings.

Following my 2-2 effort in Week 6, that puts my season record at 10-14 on the year.

Broncos @ Dolphins, 1:00PM ET
I was one of the many who chastised the Broncos for trading back into the first round to take Tim Tebow in 2010. But now that it has become almost cliché to bag on Tebow’s abilities as a passer, I’m flat out rooting for him now. RELEASE THE TEBOW! From a performance standpoint, you can’t get much worse than the Miami defense. Their pass rush isn’t that bad but what’s the difference? They can’t stop the pass or run so teams can still pretty much do whatever they want against the Dolphins. Tebow will probably throw for 87 yards but give me two I say TWO touchdowns in a Denver victory today.
THE PICK: DENVER BRONCOS +1

Steelers @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
Here’s the way I’m viewing this game. Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point favorite but let’s toss out the spread for a second. I ask myself, ‘Do I think the Steelers will win?’ The answer is yes. And if I believe they’re going to win, then they’re probably going to beat a bad Arizona team (which has proven it can’t finish games) by more than a field goal, right? Again, the answer is yes. (At least in my eyes.) The Steelers have been models of inconsistency thus far, but if you follow that same model then they should roll today. After the Ravens hammered them 35-7 in Week 1, the Steelers covered as 14-point favorites the following week against the Seahawks. After they lost to the Texans in Week 4, they covered easily as a 3-point favorite against the Titans in Week 5. And after they barely squeaked by the Jaguars last Sunday, I expect them to cover against Arizona. It’s science.
THE PICK: PITTSBURGH STEELERS –3.5

Chiefs @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET
Every time I’m utterly confused by a point spread it usually winds up burning me in the end. The Raiders opened as 3-point point home favorites against the Chiefs when it was presumed that Kyle Boller was going to be Oakland’s starter. That makes sense. The Raiders are at home, they’re the better team and the old rule is that home field advantage is worth three points. Thus, Oakland –3. But after they acquired Carson Palmer on Tuesday and it was announced that he was playing, the line climbed a full point to 4.5. Then the damn thing jumped up to 5.5 as the public presumably hammered the Palmer-led Raiders. So what you’re telling me is that Palmer is worth a full 1.5 points? Are you kidding me? I know this isn’t the same the Chiefs team that won the AFC West last year but they are 2-0 in their last two games and 3-2 against the spread this year. They’re also coming off a bye and playing an opponent they’re incredibly familiar with (sans Palmer, that is). Plus, and this is the biggest reason why I can’t understand the line, Palmer hasn’t played in a live game since January 2. Now, after reporting on Friday that Palmer might not start, the line is back down to 3.5. Either way, give me the points. I don’t trust either Palmer nor Boller.
THE PICK: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +3.5

Packers @ Vikings, 4:15PM ET
The Packers haven’t played a full game in a couple of weeks, as they struggled in the first-half against the Falcons in Week 5 and completely took their foot off the gas in the second-half last Sunday against the Rams. That scares me, although not as much as what Aaron Rodgers is going to do in a dome against Minnesota’s brutal secondary. Even if rookie Christian Ponder plays well in his first career start, he isn’t going to keep pace with Rodgers and the Packers. I’ll probably get burned by this same Viking team that I predicted would upset Chicago last Sunday but just like the Chiefs-Raiders game, I’m not going to over-think this one. (I also love that the spread has stayed below the key number of 10.)
THE PICK: GREEN BAY PACKERS –9

Four spreads of note:

Falcons +3.5 @ Lions, 1:00PM ET Sunday
Apparently the Falcons showed enough last week in their win over the Panthers to make people believe they’re starting to turn things around. Either that or folks are slowly starting to climb off the Lions bandwagon. The spread for this game opened at Detroit –4.5 and within a day it was down to 3.5. Considering Atlanta was viewed as a potential Super Bowl team this season, the Falcons look like a value getting over a field goal. With Julio Jones iffy to return from a hamstring injury, we could see a lot of Michael Turner again this Sunday, especially considering Detroit has had its issues with stopping the run. The Falcons relied heavily on Turner last week against Carolina, as he rushed for 139 yards and two touchdowns. Personally, I think the total is the most attractive play in this game. Forty-seven points seems way to high for two teams that have struggled at times offensively.

Bears -1 @ Bucs, 1:00PM ET Sunday
The Bucs beat the Saints last week at home and they’re now a 1-point underdog against a Chicago team that hasn’t won back-to-back games all season? I guess that’s not too surprising seeing as how ugly the Bucs have looked at times, but it’s not like the Bears have performed any better away from Solider Field (0-2 with two non-covers at New Orleans and Detroit). There’s value here somewhere but it’s hard to figure out which teams will show up this Sunday, especially seeing as how the game is being played in London. Both of these squads have had rather uneven performances from week-to-week this season.

Steelers –3.5 @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
The spread in this game seems awfully low to me, even when you account for home field advantage. That’s probably because the Steelers have looked great one week (see Titans), only to come out the next week and barely beat an inferior opponent (see Jaguars). If the Cardinals have any chance of getting back into the NFC West race, they need to win on Sunday. The problem is that Kevin Kolb hasn’t been the quarterback Arizona thought it was getting when it traded for him this offseason. The Cards have been in every game this year except their disastrous Week 5 showing in Minnesota, but Kolb just hasn’t gotten it done in the fourth quarter.

Chiefs +4 @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET, Sunday
It’s funny, the Raiders opened as a 3-point favorite with Kyle Boller under center and as soon as they announced that Carson Palmer would start, the spread climbed to 4 points. So Palmer, who hasn’t taken a snap in a live game since January, is worth a full point in a divisional game? I know he’s familiar with the offense thanks to the time he spent with Hue Jackson in Cincinnati but so much for easing the guy in. That speaks volumes towards Oakland’s confidence in Boller. It’ll be interesting to see how this game plays out come Sunday.

2011 NFL Week 8 Point Spreads & Totals:

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A first-round pick in 2012 and a conditional pick in 2013 that could become a first-rounder based on playing time and incentives? For Carson Palmer?

Put it on the board: Mike Brown just hit a grand slam, then came up in the same inning and hit another grand slam. If the conditional pick winds up being a first-rounder and Brown actually nets two starters with the selections he received for Palmer, then he would have hit for the cycle while doing a handstand and eating a hot dog all at the same time.

Palmer could go on to lead the Raiders to the Super Bowl and Mike Brown would still wind up being a winner in all of this. Palmer was never going to play for the Bengals again. He said as much while digging his heels into the ground and standing firm on his retirement threat this offseason. The Bengals would have been fortunate to have received a third-rounder for Palmer and gotten his salary off the books. Instead, they net a first-round pick and another selection that could turn into a first-rounder.

Granted, we don’t know all the details yet. That conditional first-rounder may only be if Palmer wins two Super Bowls in Oakland and winds up with a bust in the Hall of Fame. But to receive one first-round pick for him was a massive victory for Brown and the Bengals. Let’s not forget that this is the same Palmer whose arm strength and mobility appeared to be declining badly last season and who hasn’t played in a live game (preseason or otherwise) since January 2.

Before I get too swept up in the sticker price for Palmer, let me state that I understand why the Raiders made this move. Due to Jason Campbell’s season-ending injury, they’ve mortgaged their future for the chance to win now. They know that if Darren McFadden stays healthy they’ll remain competitive and it’s not as if Palmer doesn’t know the offense. He and coach Hue Jackson spent time together in Cincinnati, so it theoretically shouldn’t take long for him to get up to speed. Plus, with Campbell and Kyle Boller set to become free agents at the end of the year, Terrelle Pryor was the only quarterback on the roster signed past 2011. Eventually they needed to address the position and had a chance to trade for a franchise quarterback, so they took the risk with Palmer.

That said, I still wouldn’t have made this deal. Not in today’s NFL where building through the draft is still the answer to winning over the long haul. Ask the Packers and Steelers, who have made minimal free agent signings over the years while combining to win three Super Bowls in the last six seasons.

Plus, it’s not like Palmer is in his prime or has won anything of substance as a professional. I would use the term “franchise quarterback” loosely when it comes to describing his talents. When the Bears traded a first, a third, and Kyle Orton to the Broncos for Jay Cutler, the latter was just about to turn 26. The Bears mortgaged their future for a young signal caller who played a position they had trouble filling for over two decades. Palmer is 31 and has already showed signs of decline.

The best case scenario for Oakland is that Palmer just needs a change of scenery and will be motivated to prove he still has a couple of years left in the tank. Maybe he gets to Oakland and has a resurgence just like Rich Gannon did early last decade.

But that’s the best-case scenario. The worst-case is that Palmer’s game continues to deteriorate, the Raiders lose two high draft picks and wind up paying an aging quarterback nearly $30 million to be Pryor’s tutor. (Assuming Oakland still views Pryor as the future, that is.)

For Brown and the Bengals, there is no worst-case scenario. Palmer was done in Cincinnati and if Andy Dalton pans out, the Bengals have already filled their need at quarterback. For once, Brown’s stubbornness finally paid off.

Mike Florio is reporting that Carson Palmer has been traded by the Cincinnati Bengals to the Oakland Raiders. Jay Glazer broke the story and the compensation appears to be a first-round pick in 2012 and a conditional pick in 2013 which is a second-rounder that could become a first-rounder.

This deal can be a huge win for both teams. The Bengals get two high draft picks for a player who basically told them to go to hell. The Raiders all of a sudden have a front-line quarterback to pair with their powerful running game. They are mortgaging the future, but they must see real potential to get to the playoffs and compete this season. Ironically, this is a the type of deal All Davis would have made.

Palmer has been an excellent quarterback for years, but his skills seem to have slipped a bit. That said, he has a big arm, and he can rejuvenate his career on a team with a running game.

As for the Bengals, everyone left them for dead at the beginning of the season because they had a rookie quarterback, but the Bengals have a solid defense and Dalton looks pretty good so far. Now they have more picks to build for the future.