While I was at the gym this morning, I caught some NFL highlights on ESPN including some of the taped commentary from Chris Berman and Tom Jackson. For the record, no one recaps games better than those two guys, not even the 11 or 12 characters on NBC, who just keep trying to outwit each other. Anyway, Jackson said something really, really intriguing. Something to the effect of that while no one is saying it out loud, you can make a case for Titans’ quarterback Kerry Collins for NFL MVP after nine games.
Now think about that for a minute. Yes, it’s a strange year in the NFL, and yes, the Titans are 9-0 and way out in front of the AFC pack. But when you first think about it, Collins in MVP conversations sounds ridiculous. He is somewhere toward the bottom of the pack in passing yards, with 1525 (169 per game in 8-plus games), with just 5 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions and a QB rating of just 78.8. But here’s the thing. Drew Brees is putting up Tom Brady/Peyton Manning type numbers, with 2985 yards, 17 TDs and 10 picks. But Brees’ Saints are 4-5 and bringing up the rear in the AFC South. Jay Cutler is second in passing yards with 2616, and his team is 5-4 (and leading a pathetic AFC West). In fact, in pure yardage, you have to scroll down to number 10 (Brett Favre) to find a QB with more than five wins. Eli Manning of the 8-1 Giants is 12th and has a QB rating of 88.8.
So throw the stats aside, and think purely in terms of MVP for a minute. Manning and Brandon Jacobs deserve consideration, because they lead an 8-1 team in the NFL’s toughest division. But the Giants have a whole team of great players and the G-men would still be very competitive if either of those guys missed a game or two. The Panthers are 7-2, but have also had many contributors. And among the teams that are 6-3 (Jets, Pats, Steelers, Ravens, Redskins, Bucs and Falcons), you can make a case for a handful of players–Favre, Clinton Portis, and Matt Ryan. But even Ryan has had help from Michael Turner and Roddy White and John Abraham.
Then look at the Titans themselves. Aside from Collins, you have LenDale White and Chris Johnson piling up yards behind a very underrated offensive line. You have Albert Haynesworth absolutely terrorizing offensive coordinators and Cortland Finnegan playing out of his mind. All of them Pro Bowl possibilities, but not really MVP material. Collins, though, stepped in for Vince Young and has been a steady hand leading a very talented team to an undefeated record so far. You can’t say the Titans would be better than maybe 5-4 with Young as the starter right now. 9-0 with the veteran Collins is the only number that should be mentioned in MVP talk at this point, and for that I have to say Tom Jackson is on to something.
Bookmark this page for when the real talk begins, and don’t forget you heard it here second.
Stop hesitating and say it: The Atlanta Falcons are a playoff contender. Their 6-3 record isn’t a fluke. They’re that good.
Yes, three of their victories are against the Lions, Chiefs and Raiders. They’ve also gone into Lambeau and beaten the Packers, topped the Kyle Orton-led Bears and in their latest victory, crushed the Saints 34-20 on Sunday. (The only reason the score was that close is because New Orleans scored on a fluke “Hail Mary” pass as time expired.)
Matt Ryan (16 of 23, 248 yards, 2 TDs) has lifted the Falcons to contender-status, but it’s not just him. Michael Turner was a fantastic free agent signing. Jerious Norwood can take one to the house every time he touches the ball. Roddy White has developed into a true No. 1 receiver. Michael Jenkins is finally living up to his first round status. And the defense has been much, much better than people expected.
Speaking of the defense, they intercepted Drew Brees three times on Sunday and returned one of those picks for a touchdown. First-year head coach Mike Smith has completely turned Atlanta’s defense around and the players have bought into his philosophy of playing physical.
As for the Saints, little is going right for them. Injuries have started to mount and at 4-5, they’re two-three games behind every team in a stacked NFC South. Frustration is starting to boil over, too, as cameras caught Drew Brees screaming at Jeremy Shockey on the sidelines on Sunday. Not that Brees was out of line – Shockey looks like he’s already given up. He’s not as involved in the offense as he thought he would be and it looks like he’s not even running full routes any more. There’s no question that Billy Miller is the Saints’ best tight end right now.
These are two teams heading in vastly different directions.
I’ve been beating this drum on our weekly fantasy football podcasts, but Michael Turner doesn’t run well against teams with good (or even mediocre) run defenses. That may seem intuitive, but he really doesn’t run well against good run defenses. Take a look at his first eight games. (The opposing team’s rank in average rush yards per game is in parenthesis.)
So against the Lions, Chiefs, Packers and Raiders (average rank: 30th), Turner posted an average of 146 yards rushing (5.7 ypc) and 1.5 TD. Against the Bucs, Panthers, Bears and Eagles (average rank: 10th), he rushed for an average of 53 yards (2.8 ypc) and zero TD. (Home versus away doesn’t seem to be much of a factor because he has had big games on the road – GB and OAK – as well as at home.)
What does this mean going forward? Well, here is Turner’s upcoming schedule:
Week 10 – NO (18th) Week 11 – DEN (26th) Week 12 – CAR (14th) Week 13 – @ SD (16th) Week 14 – @ NO (18th) Week 15 – TB (13th) Week 16 – @ MIN (2nd) Week 17 – STL (29th)
Turner has a great matchup in Week 11 against the Broncos, but that enticing matchup against the Rams in Week 17 doesn’t really help most fantasy owners since the playoffs generally wrap up in Week 16. The Panthers and Bucs have already proven they can shut him down, while the Minnesota matchup in Week 16 is especially worrisome assuming the Vikings don’t lose their stud defensive tackles to suspension. That leaves two games against the Saints and one game against the Chargers, two teams that are mediocre against the run. And Turner hasn’t done particularly well against mediocre run defenses.
I just traded Turner away in one league because I’m not optimistic about his chances over the second half of the season. I packaged him with Larry Fitzgerald and Kellen Winslow for Marion Barber (whom I believe will get back on track once Tony Romo is back under center), Donald Driver and Antonio Gates. I feel like I’m getting an upgrade at RB and TE for a downgrade at WR. Since I also have Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe, Wes Welker and DeSean Jackson at wideout, I feel like I can afford to lose Fitzgerald.
Depending on your league’s trade deadline, you may want to think about selling high on Turner as well. He might post good numbers this week against the Saints and he’ll probably run wild against the Broncos in Week 11, so I think he’ll have his highest value after that game. Of course, that won’t help you if your trade deadline is before then.
I figured this game against the Falcons would give us a pretty good idea just where the Green Bay Packers currently stand. They were impressive in beating the Vikings in Week 1, they got the job done against the Lions in Week 2, they lost to a very good Dallas team in Week 3 and fell to a good Tampa Bay team on the road in Week 4. If you looked at those first four games before the season started, and assumed that Aaron Rodgers didn’t fall on his face, then you probably could have correctly picked the winner of each one of those games.
But losing to Atlanta at home? That’s a game that a good team should win, and for all intents and purposes, the Packers aren’t a good team. Without Al Harris, Roddy White was able to work over Charles Woodson to the tune of eight catches for 132 yards and a TD in the first half. The Packers held him without a catch in the second half, but the Falcons were able to take advantage of great field position in the fourth quarter to score 10 points and seal the victory.
The truth is, even without Al Harris (and defensive end Cullen Jenkins), the Packers should have enough talent to beat the Falcons at home, but they simply didn’t play a clean game. Green Bay was penalized nine times for 97 yards, while the Falcons were penalized twice for just 15 yards. Time and again the Packers would shoot themselves in the foot with an ill-advised holding or facemask penalty.
Then, with his team trailing by three with 4:42 to play, facing a third-and-19 from its own 21 yard-line, Aaron Rodgers made a crucial mistake by trying to force the ball to Ruvell Martin. The Falcons scored on a Michael Turner 2-yard TD run to go up 10. If Rodgers had the presence of mind to throw the ball away, the Packers defense would have had a puncher’s chance at stopping Atlanta on their side of the field, and the Green Bay offense would have had at least one more chance to tie (or win) the game.
So it’s not Aaron Rodgers’ inexperience, injuries or a lack of discipline that has the Packers on a three-game losing streak; it’s a combination of the three. All in all, Rodgers has performed admirably this season, and injuries can’t really be controlled, so discipline is the only way that Green Bay can vastly improve over the next few weeks. (That, and the team suddenly figuring out how to run the ball again, though I’m not holding my breath.) Unfortunately, the road isn’t going to get easier. The Packers have to travel to Seattle to face an angry team that just got embarrassed against the Giants. Then they host the Colts before visiting the Titans and the Vikings. After that, they host the Bears.
The 2008 NFL Season is only a quarter of the way finished, but it already looks like it could be one of the craziest years in some time. And as if anyone needed a reason to tune in this year, I’ve gone ahead and listed 32 of them below.
In no particular order:
1. Parity still rules. Who would have thought that the Bills and Titans would have better records at this point than the Colts, Patriots and Jaguars?
2. The Giants. The G-Men are the best team in the league and nobody is talking about them.
3. Aaron Rodgers is holding his own. The Packers have dropped three straight after starting the year 2-0, but that’s hardly Rodgers’ fault. The young man has gone through a lot this year and he continues to impress, including playing with an injured shoulder and throwing nine touchdown passes in five games.
4. The Colts 17-point fourth quarter comeback against the Texans in Week 5.
5. Preseason predictions still mean nothing. There’s no greater feeling than checking out who the pundits predict will be the best teams in the NFL in preseason…then realizing how wrong they were after the first couple weeks of the season.
6. Jason Campbell’s development. People in the know say that it usually takes a quarterback 2-3 years to fully learn the West Coast Offense but so far this year, Campbell has thrown for over 1,000 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions. And oh-by-the-way, he also has the Redskins at 4-1. First-year head coach Jim Zorn has done a remarkable job in Washington so far.
7. The Titans. There’s not a defense in the league that has been more clutch late in games than Tennessee has.
8. Ronnie Brown. No offense to Ricky Williams, but it’s nice to see that the guy who didn’t quit on the game because he wanted more time to smoke weed is having more success than the guy who did.
9. The balance of power is starting to shift between the two conferences. The AFC has long dominated the NFC in terms of teams and quality of play, but so far this year those roles have been reversed. Four of the top five or six teams in the league belong to the NFC.
10. Brett Favre. Through five weeks, no signal caller in the league has a better QB rating than Favre. And his six-touchdown performance against the Cardinals in Week 4 was vintage Brett.
11. Baltimore’s defense. They might be aging unit, but Ray Lewis and Co. can still lay the wood can’t they?
12. Rookie quarterbacks playing well. Matt Ryan just went into Lambeau and knocked off the Packers, while Joe Flacco almost pulled off upsets against top defenses in Pittsburgh and against Tennessee. These first round signal callers have been impressive to say the least.
13. Adrian Peterson. Forget the sophomore slump – the 2007 Offensive Rookie of the Year is proving that he’s no fluke.
14. The Bears finally have a quarterback. Kyle Orton is nowhere close to being the best quarterback in the league, but watch him play – he has a little gunslinger mentality in him. And hey, he’s no Rex Grossman, which is a great thing (just ask Bear fans).
15. Kurt Warner. Some groaned when the veteran unseated youngster Matt Leinart in preseason, but so far head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s decision to go with Warner has paid off.
16. The Dolphins. They might be all hype right now, but who cares? The Fins’ fan base saw only one win last year – let them enjoy the ride.
17. Ben Roethlisberger’s toughness. This is arguably the worst offensive line the Steelers have produced in years, yet Big Ben continues to show how underrated he really is. His performance against Jacksonville in Week 5 was simply amazing.
18. The Bills. It’s easy to pull for a young team and most of their wins this year have been nail bitters. Hopefully QB Trent Edwards is okay from the hit he took against Arizona last Sunday and he’ll get back on the field soon.
19. The young Titans’ secondary. Cortland Finnegan and Michael Griffin share the league lead for interceptions. And they play in the same defensive backfield.
20. Marty Booker’s catch against the Lions.
21. Jay Cutler. The kid is cocky but it’s hard not to like his swagger.
22. Michael Turner’s running style.
23. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. The Packers’ wideouts are just two example of why teams don’t need to spend first round picks on receivers.
24. Fresh starts in Oakland, Detroit and St. Louis. Yes these three franchises are a mess. But maybe there is a silver lining now that Lane Kiffin, Matt Millen and Scott Linehan all received their walking papers. Maybe…
25. Eli Manning. The former first overall pick is proving that last year’s postseason performance wasn’t a fluke and he really has taken the next step as a NFL quarterback.
26. The Panthers. Jake Delhomme is healthy and playing well again, rookie Jonathan Stewart has been a great complement to DeAngelo Williams and the run defense has been fantastic so far. Carolina is a legitimate contender in the NFC.
27. Monte Kiffin’s defense. The Bucs don’t even rank in the top 10 in any major defensive category except for points allowed, but ask Matt Ryan, Kyle Orton and Aaron Rodgers if they would want to face Kiffin’s unit on a weekly basis.
28. The Patriots are still finding ways to win. It hasn’t been pretty, but Bill Belichick and New England are still finding ways to win despite not having Tom Brady under center. Even after being blown out by Miami at home in Week 3, the Pats are still a team to watch out for in the AFC.
29. Reggie Bush. He might not be able to run consistently between the tackles but he sure as hell can run outside of them.
30. Terrell Owens…when he shuts up and just plays. And Tony Romo…when he can hang on to the football.
31. The Bengals. For providing the casual football fan with plenty of entertainment off the field.
32. Al Davis. For providing the casual football fan with plenty of entertainment off the filed.
While I was at the gym this morning, I caught some NFL highlights on ESPN including some of the taped commentary from Chris Berman and Tom Jackson. For the record, no one recaps games better than those two guys, not even the 11 or 12 characters on NBC, who just keep trying to outwit each other. Anyway, Jackson said something really, really intriguing. Something to the effect of that while no one is saying it out loud, you can make a case for Titans’ quarterback Kerry Collins for NFL MVP after nine games.
