Yesterday, we took a look at John Hollinger’s Eastern Conference playoff odds. Today we’ll look at the Western Conference.

1. LA Lakers (100)
2. Phoenix (96.5)
3. Portland (96.3)
4. Denver (93.8)
5. Utah (88.6)
6. New Orleans (81.1)
7. Dallas (80.6)
8. Houston (78.1)
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9. Golden State (34.4)
10. Memphis (20.3)
11. San Antonio (19.9)
12. Sacramento (7.7)
13. Minnesota (2.6)
14. L.A. Clippers (0.1)
15. Oklahoma City (0.0)

He looks like he has the West pegged save for one big problem. I don’t see how the Mavericks – who are 5-7 at full strength – will make the playoffs but the Spurs – who are 5-6 and missing two of their three best players – will not. Hollinger’s formula is probably heavily mathematical, so he can’t account for injuries, and that’s part of the problem with taking a pure statistical approach to something like this. Tony Parker is due back in mid-December, while Ginobili is ahead of schedule and should be back a bit earlier. The Spurs are getting good play from George Hill and Roger Mason, and if they can stay near .500, they shouldn’t have a problem making the playoffs if Parker and Ginobili come back strong.

As for the Mavericks, barring a major injury to one of the other eight teams (including the Spurs), I don’t see how they make the postseason. Denver’s 8-4 record seems a little odd, but they are getting good play from Chauncey Billups, who has changed the team’s attitude defensively.

Even without Monta Ellis, Golden State has surprisingly kept its head above water, and if the Warriors can stay close to .500 until January (when Ellis is set to return), they would be a dark horse to make the playoffs.

I know the answer is “defense,” but the San Antonio Spurs started with this lineup last night – George Hill, Roger Mason, Ime Udoka, Tim Duncan and Fabricio Oberto – and they still managed to beat (77-75) a Houston team that was pretty much at full strength. Rafer Alston was suspended for the game and the team is still without Shane Battier due to a foot injury. Still, the Rockets have no business losing to the Spurs, who are without Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

On the night, Tracy McGrady was just 2-12 from the field, but the Rockets still led by seven heading into the fourth quarter. Tim Duncan (22 points, 5 rebounds) was big down the stretch and he had the game-saving block (on Aaron Brooks’ layup attempt) to seal the win.

When looking at a win like this, maybe the injuries to Ginobili and Parker are a blessing in disguise for the Spurs. Guys like Hill and Mason are getting big minutes, and this experience could very well help San Antonio down the road.

The Love of Sports put together a list of the top 20 international players of all-time. It’s a solid list, but I have a few qualms with the top 6:

6. Tony Parker – France
Parker was born in Belgium and raised in France. The captain of the French National Team is lightning quick with the ball and a creative finisher around the basket. He’s won three NBA titles since joining the Spurs in 2003, and in 2007 became the first European player to be named the MVP of the NBA Finals.

5. Yao Ming – China
Yao’s been one of the greatest ambassadors for the game of basketball since joining the Rockets in 2002. The big fella’s steadily improved each year, averaging 22 points, 10.8 rebounds and two blocks per game last season. This past summer, he led China to the quarterfinals at the Beijing Games before an exalted home crowd.

4. Manu Ginobili – Argentina
Ginobili’s been successful at every level of basketball. Before joining the Spurs in 2002, he won a Euroleague Championship while playing in Italy. Then he won three rings with San Antonio, and in 2004 led Argentina to an Olympic gold medal, taking home the tournament MVP award in the process.

3. Steve Nash – Canada
Nash is a fierce competitor who thrived as the general in Mike D’Antoni’s fast-paced offense. He’s deceptively quick, a great shooter and his impromptu passes are a joy to watch. He won back-to-back MVP awards in 2003-04, 2004-05 and was generally recognized as the best point guard in the game.

2. Dirk Nowitzki – Germany
Nowitzki’s one of the most unique players in the NBA, a seven-footer with the ability to put the ball on the floor and range that extends beyond the arc. He led the Mavericks to the NBA Finals in 2006 and was named the league’s MVP the following season, becoming the first European player to win the award.

1. Hakeem Olajuwon – Nigeria
Olajuwon could control a game on the boards by blocking shots or with his fanciful footwork. He carried the Rockets to back-to-back championships and won a gold medal with the U.S. at the 1996 Olympics. “The Dream” was named NBA Finals MVP twice, a two-time Defensive Player of the Year and the first international player to win the MVP award.

Olajuwon at #1 is right, he was unstoppable in his prime. Nowitzki seems to be fading – not statwise, but domination-wise – so I’d have him below Nash, who did win two MVPs to Nowitzki’s one. Besides, you have to give credit to Nash, who looks like he would be a better fit as a roadie for Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers than as a point guard for a NBA team.

I prefer Ginobili to Nowitzki, but I have no real basis to back that up. I just prefer Ginobili’s toughness and willingness to take the ball to the hoops. Dirk settles for too many jump shots. After that, I think Parker has to go ahead of Yao. The big man has simply been too injury-prone to be listed ahead of the talented Frenchman, who has won a NBA Finals MVP and is married to one of the hottest women on the planet…

There was one omission – Tim Duncan. I guess the list maker considers the U.S. Virgin Islands as domestic, and according to Wiki its head of state is George W. Bush (sorry about that, fellas), so I guess technically it is. However, his inclusion would have made for a very interesting debate at #1.

Oh, by the way, I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re adding Portland’s Rudy Fernandez to this list in the next few years.

It’s early in the NBA season, but these four things have jumped out at me during the first week of action.

1. The Lakers are dominating, but Lamar Odom isn’t thriving off the bench.
The Los Angeles Lakers are 4-0 and have won those four games by an average of 20.8 points. Granted, they’ve already played the Clippers twice, but the Nuggets gave them a test in Denver. The Lakers are doing it with defense, holding opponents to just 39.3% shooting and 85.0 points per game. (The Lakers are second in the league in both categories.) The team is off to a quick start despite so-so play from Andrew Bynum (8.3 points and 9.3 rebounds) and Lamar Odom (10.0 points and 6.5 rebounds), who isn’t exactly tearing it up off the bench. His numbers are boosted by a pretty nice 15-point, nine-rebound effort against the Clippers last night. Those are kind of numbers that Odom should be posting on a regular basis. The Lakers are getting nice play from Trevor Ariza, who has produced 9.8 points and 4.3 rebounds in just 20.5 minutes of play. If he continues his deft shooting from long range (71%), it won’t be long before he cracks the starting lineup. One of the underlying strategies heading into the season was to cut back on Kobe’s minutes, and thus far the plan has worked. He averaged 38.9 last season and is only playing 33.3 this season. His minutes are likely to rise as the Lakers play in more close games, but right now Phil Jackson has to be feeling pretty good about how his team has started.

2. The Bucks are finally playing some defense.
Last season, Milwaukee was last in the league in defensive field goal percentage (48.0%), but through five games, they’re holding opponents to 44.2% shooting, which is #14 in the league. New head coach Scott Skiles demands a lot from his players on that end of the court and so far the Bucks are responding with increased effort. The addition of Richard Jefferson certainly helps defensively, but he’s also getting it done on the other end of the court. RJ is averaging 18.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game, even though he’s only shooting 41% from the field. Without Michael Redd in the lineup, Jefferson had a great 32-point, nine-assist effort in a 112-104 overtime win against the Wizards Wednesday night. The Bucks are also getting great play from a couple of unexpected sources. Second-year point guard Ramon Sessions turned a few heads last year when he averaged 12.9 points and 12.4 assists (including a franchise record 24 dimes against the Bulls) over the last eight games of the season. The Mo Williams trade that brought Luke Ridnour to team looked more like a salary dump than a personnel move, but maybe the Bucks decided they had their point guard of the future in Sessions, who is averaging 17.3 points and 8.3 assists on the year. Second round pick Luc Mbah a Moute has outplayed first round pick Joe Alexander thus far. Skiles likes Mbah a Moute’s great defense and toughness, which he learned playing in Ben Howland’s system at UCLA for three years. He’s playing 25.2 minutes and is averaging 8.6 points and 5.0 rebounds per game. The Bucks are 3-2, but have a rough eight-game stretch ahead of them that features the Celtics (twice), Suns, Cavs, Spurs, Nuggets and Jazz. If they can come through that gauntlet close to .500, we’ll know that the Bucks’ improvement is for real.

3. The Spurs were thisclose to starting 0-4.
If not for last night’s 55-point, 10-assist, seven-rebound effort by Tony Parker that helped the Spurs survive a double-overtime scare against the Timberwolves, San Antonio would be looking at an 0-4 start. They lost to the Suns at home by five and to the Blazers by one in Portland, but it was the 98-81 loss to the Mavs at home that was really surprising. The Spurs’ problem is two-fold. Collectively, they’re getting older and they miss Manu Ginobili. Parker (33.3 points, 7.3 assists) and Tim Duncan (27.0 points, 11.8 rebounds) are doing all they can to keep the Spurs in games, but they aren’t getting much help from their supporting cast, specifically Michael Finley (33% FG%) and Kurt Thomas (14% FG%). The Spurs are getting good play from fifth-year guard Roger Mason, who is averaging 15.8 points per game on 60.5% shooting. He’s been extremely hot from downtown, knocking down 64% of this three-point shots. Right now, it’s a three-man show and that’s it; no other Spur is averaging more than 7.5 points per game. The schedule gets a little easier over the next two weeks, with winnable games against the Heat, Knicks, Bucks, Kings and Clippers. San Antonio should be back above .500 before too long.

In my 2008 NBA Preview, I had the Hawks ranked #20 to start the season. After a 3-0 start, they should definitely be in the top half, maybe even in the top ten. I thought the loss of Josh Childress and the steady decline of Mike Bibby would outweigh whatever improvements this young team could make, but they have proven me wrong. The Hawks’ three wins are impressive. They beat Orlando by 14 points on the road, beat Philly at home by seven and then beat the Hornets in New Orleans by eight. Joe Johnson has led the team in scoring in all three games, and is averaging 28.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists on the year. Even more impressive, the Hawks have won despite poor shooting from Josh Smith (42%), Mike Bibby (34%) and Marvin Williams (39%). If Johnson is able to keep up this level of play, the Hawks shouldn’t have a problem making the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Long-term, I like the direction this franchise is headed, but they still need to find their point guard of the future. Mike Bibby is on the decline and Acie Law hasn’t done much in his young career to indicate that he’s the guy they should lean on. The Hawks will have plenty of cap space over the next couple of seasons, so they should be planning to find a point guard that can complement Johnson and forward/center Al Horford.

Offseason Movement: The Spurs were pretty quiet this offseason, apparently content with their roster. They re-signed Michael Finley and Kurt Thomas, and drafted George Hill, a combo guard that could really score in college.
Keep Your Eye On: Manu Ginobili’s ankle
Manu Ginobili will be out of action until mid-December after undergoing left ankle surgery. The Spurs won the title in 2003, 2005 and 2007, and I would pick them this year if not for the uncertainty surrounding Ginobili’s health. If he comes back at 100%, the Spurs have a great shot at a fourth title in seven years. Ginobili’s ankle is especially worrisome considering his style of play. He’s most effective when he’s able to drive to the hole, and a shaky ankle may limit his ability to get to the rim.
The Big Question: Do the Spurs have another title run in them?
Ginobili (31 years old), Tim Duncan (32), Michael Finley (35), Bruce Bowen (37) and Kurt Thomas (36) are all pretty long in the tooth and they’ll all be playing a major role in the Spurs’ rotation this season. Obviously, Ginobili and Duncan are the keys – if they are healthy and can play at a high level, the Spurs are going to be a very tough out, especially considering that the 26 year-old Tony Parker is just hitting his prime.
Outlook: Same ol’ same ol’. The Spurs recipe for success is pretty simple. They’ve signed their stars to reasonable contracts and with regard to the supporting cast, chemistry outweighs ability or upside. Duncan is signed for four more seasons, which would make him 36 in the final year of his contract. Realistically, the team has a 2-3 year window in which to win another title. Duncan is still playing at a high level, but there’s no guarantee that at 34 or 35, he’ll still be able to post franchise-cornerstone numbers. There is no doubt that the clock is ticking. This season probably represents the Spurs’ best chance for another title.