As I sit here waiting for the (inevitable?) Cavs/Lakers Finals, I started to wonder — how does playoff seeding relate to Finals appearances?
The salary cap was (sort of) implemented during the 1984-85 season to level the playing field, so that’s where we’ll start. Since the ’85 Finals, #1-seeds have accounted for 58% (28 of 48) of the Finals participants. But that trend has changed over the last five years, where #1-seeds only accounted for 20% (2/10) of Finals participants. (This means that from ’85 to ’03, #1-seeds made up 66% of Finals participants.)
Over the last 24 years, teams seeded #4 or higher made the Finals just three times: the ’95 #6-seeded Rockets, the ’99 #8-seeded Knicks and the ’06 #4-seeded Mavs. Only the Rockets managed to win the NBA Championship, so that means that 23 of 24 title winners were seeded #3 or better at the beginning of the playoffs. In fact #3-seeds have won just three titles over the last 24 years (’02, ’04 and ’07), so 83% of title winners start the playoffs as #1- or #2-seeds.
Since 2001, we’ve had the vaunted #1/#1 matchup just once — last season’s Boston/L.A. matchup. From ’85 to ’00, that matchup occurred eight times, or 50% of the time.
What does this all mean? Who knows. Even though the salary cap age has brought more parity to the playoffs, it seems to have only spread the wealth down from the top three or four teams to the top five or six teams. Teams not seeded in the top three are longshots to make the Finals. This is due to the seven-game format of each series. It’s completely feasible that a #4-#8 seed to take a game or two from a top seed, but far less feasible that they can win four out of seven.
These playoffs would have been more interesting had Manu Ginobili, Kevin Garnett and Jameer Nelson stayed healthy. Still, we’re talking about teams that are seeded #3 or higher, so it wouldn’t have changed the fact that really only the top six teams in any given year have a legit shot at the Finals.
After all of that, I think we’re still destined for a Cavs/Lakers matchup in the Finals.
