This year, we’re doing a division-by-division preview with quick-hitting analysis for every team in the league. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff “also-ran,” I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason. At the end of each divisional preview, I’ll provide some (random) thoughts for the fantasy hoopsters out there.
For each division, I’ll pick the order of finish. You’ll also see the team’s league-wide preseason rank in parenthesis. Be sure to check back on Thursday for a preview of the Central Division and on Saturday for the Atlantic Division.
Orlando Magic (4)
The Magic were busy this summer, but did they get better? Only time will tell. Vince Carter, Brandon Bass and Jason Williams are in, and Hedo Turkoglu, Courtney Lee and Rafer Alston are out. Orlando fended off a strong run from the Mavs for the services of Marcin Gortat, and actually played Mark Cuban and Co. pretty well by stealing the up-and-coming Bass away in the process. It appears that Bass may start at power forward, which would move Rashard Lewis to small forward. Since the mismatches Lewis created at power forward were one of the Magic’s strengths last season, this may not be written in stone. Orlando also has the option of starting Mickael Pietrus at small forward and moving Lewis back to PF. But the biggest change to the lineup is the loss of Turkoglu and the acquisition of the 32 year-old Vince Carter, who will likely take over Turkoglu’s initiation of the offense. But keep in mind that the Magic made their playoff run without the services of All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson, and his return will be a significant boost to an already strong roster. The Magic didn’t just tinker with their Finals roster from last year, they made a pretty major overhaul, so it will be interesting to see how this group gels. Stan Van Gundy is one of the best coaches in the NBA, and the regular season should provide plenty of time for the Magic to work the kinks out. A deep playoff run is likely.
Did the Spurs do enough this summer to make another title run? On paper, it sure looks like they did. They added Richard Jefferson to shore up the small forward position, which has declined as Michael Finley and Bruce Bowen have aged. He’s a good defender, especially when he’s not asked to score 20 points a game, and the Spurs won’t put him in that position. The Spurs also signed Antonio McDyess, who is 35 years old, but was quite productive last season as he proved that he still has some gas left in the tank. San Antonio also had the luxury of a top 10 talent (DeJuan Blair) falling into its lap in the second round of the draft due to concerns about his knees, which served him quite well at Pitt. And, of course, the Spurs return their three principals. Tony Parker has developed into one of the best point guards in the game, Manu Ginobili is a clutch closer, and Tim Duncan is still Tim Duncan. Since his game isn’t dependent on athleticism, it continues to age well. The key for the Spurs is staying healthy. If Parker, Ginobili, Duncan and Jefferson are all healthy heading into the playoffs, San Antonio will be a very tough out, even for the Lakers.
The biggest obstacle for the Lakers this season is Ron Artest. This may sound odd, but the franchise is rolling the dice that Ron-Ron can behave for another season. They gave up on the quietly improving Trevor Ariza and made a big move to add the unruly Artest to the roster. This is risky, especially for a team coming off an impressive title run. Why fiddle with your chemistry like that? Well, GM Mitch Kupchak is well aware that the Lakers aren’t getting by on chemistry. They are a group of very talented players, held together loosely by Phil Jackson’s thoughtful approach and Kobe Bryant’s will to win. In other words, chemistry may not matter to the Lakers, because it’s a by-product of winning. (For most teams, it’s the other way around.) There’s no doubt that Artest brings a lot to the table, but he’s the biggest change from last season, so if the Lakers take a step back, he’ll probably get the blame. Meanwhile, it appears that the big lineup question surrounds the Lamar Odom/Andrew Bynum quandary, but the truth is that Bynum’s game has not developed enough to demand that he be on the floor in crunch time. Odom can shoot (albeit, only a little) and is a terrific ball handler/passer, so Jackson knows that he can better space the court than Bynum can. When both Bynum and Pau Gasol are on the floor, the lane gets clogged and Kobe can’t find driving lanes, so look for Odom to get the edge in minutes again this year. But back to Artest — assuming he accepts a reduction in his offensive role, the Lakers are the odds-on favorites to once again represent the West in the Finals.
The Nuggets are coming off a 54-28 record and a Northwest Division title. Of their top rotation players, they return all but Linas Kleiza (Olympiakos) and Dahntay Jones (Indiana). HC George Karl hopes that J.R. Smith can be a consistent starting shooting guard, but he won’t be afraid to use Arron Afflalo if Smith doesn’t play solid defense (or with his head on straight). Much of the credit to Denver’s fine season is given to Chauncey Billups, who provided steady play and leadership at point guard, but the health of Nene and Kenyon Martin should not be overlooked. The Nuggets re-signed Chris “The Birdman” Andersen to provide energy, rebounding and shot blocking off the bench. If the front line can stay healthy, Billups can stay productive at 33, and Smith can fulfill his considerable potential, then the Nuggets have enough talent to reach the Western Conference Finals for a second straight season. Even so, it’s hard to see Denver upending a healthy Lakers or Spurs squad in a seven-game series.