Remember Andrea Bargnani? He was the 20 year-old Italian that the Raptors picked #1 overall in the 2006 NBA Draft. During his first two seasons, he struggled with his shot — 43% in 2006 and 39% in 2007 — and didn’t rebound very well for a seven-footer (< 4 boards a game). Some even started to throw around labels like "disappointment" or even "bust." But even with those shooting struggles, Bargnani managed to score double-figures in each of his first two seasons, so the potential was clearly there. After a pretty strong start to the 2008-09 season -- 14.7 ppg in the first seven games -- Bargnani had his ups and downs coming off the Raptor bench. It wasn't until Jermaine O'Neal's injury that he really started to flourish. Since O'Neal has been out of the lineup (Dec. 29), Bargnani has averaged 22.3 points and 7.1 rebounds, while shooting 55% from the field and an amazing 58% from long range. O'Neal may return as early as tonight and it's unclear what kind of effect this will have on Bargnani and/or his minutes. Bargnani's emergence has started some rumors about the possibility of trading O'Neal, who hasn't been a great fit in Toronto. His contract runs for another season at the tune of $23 million (wow!) but expires before the infamous summer of 2010. One idea would be for the Raptors to swap O'Neal for Shawn Marion, who could play small forward alongside Bargnani and Chris Bosh, but the Heat would probably prefer to let Marion's deal expire and use the cap space this summer or next on a free agent like Carlos Boozer (or even Bosh). O'Neal just hasn't been able to stay healthy over the last few seasons and I'm sure his giant contract has more than a few owners wary of trading for him.
Tag: Dwyane Wade (Page 29 of 31)
The NBA All-Star Game is part meritocracy and part popularity contest. First, the fans vote, and the top five vote getters – two guards, two forwards and a center – from each conference are the starters. Then the coaches vote on the remaining seven reserves for each team.
The current vote count can be seen here, but I thought I’d put together my own list – five starters and seven reserves – for each team. To me, when it comes to naming All-Stars a winning record is just as important as great stats, so given two players with similar numbers, I’m probably going to give the nod to the guy on the better team. I’ll list the player’s Player Efficiency Rating, which gives a nice overview of the guy’s per-minute statistical production this season.
And off we go…
EASTERN CONFERENCE STARTERS
Dwyane Wade, Heat
PER: 29.14
D-Wade is back with a vengeance. He’s averaging 29.0 points, 7.1 assists and 5.1 rebounds, and is (almost) single-handedly keeping the Heat in the playoff hunt. With 24% accuracy, I don’t know why he’s shooting so many threes (3.0 per game), but that’s just nitpicking. He’s third in the league in steals (2.25).
Joe Johnson, Hawks
PER: 19.84
JJ is averaging 22.3 points, 6.1 assists and 4.6 rebounds, and has the Hawks in a battle for the #4 spot in the East. His three-point shooting is down two points, but his overall FG% is up a point. Remember when everyone laughed at the Hawks for giving up future MIP Boris Diaw and two first round picks for him?
LeBron James, Cavs
PER: 32.04
LeBron is the front-runner for the MVP thus far. He’s posting 27.7 points, 6.6 assists and 6.6 rebounds a game. His numbers are down, but that’s because the Cavs can afford to rest him an additional four minutes per game. It’s great to see his FG% over 50% (50.8%) and FT% approaching 80% (78.8%). LeBron has always been a statistical stud, but it’s the Cavs’ stellar record that has him leading the MVP race.
Kevin Garnett, Celtics
PER: 20.87
KG’s scoring is down, but given the Raptors’ struggles, he’s still the most deserving PF (over Chris Bosh) in the East. His numbers are virtually identical to last season other than a mysterious drop in free throw attempts per game (-2.1). Is KG still taking the ball to the hole?
Dwight Howard, Magic
PER: 25.71
I’d like to see Howard’s free throw accuracy (57.3%) improve, but it’s hard to argue with Orlando’s success this season. Howard is averaging 20.1 points and leads the league in rebounding with 13.8 per game. He also leads the league in blocks (3.28).
EASTERN CONFERENCE RESERVES
Devin Harris, Nets
PER: 24.88
From a statistical standpoint, Harris is outplaying all other Eastern Conference guards save for Dwyane Wade, so he is deserving of a spot in the starting lineup. However, Joe Johnson’s Hawks are playing quite a bit better, so Harris will have to settle for a spot on the bench.
Chris Bosh, Raptors
PER: 23.37
The Raptors are struggling this season but it’s not the fault of Bosh, whose numbers are virtually identical to last season. He has averaged at least 22.3 points and 8.7 rebounds in each of the last four years.
Paul Pierce, Celtics
PER: 18.32
Despite the Celtics recent struggles, The Truth is still a no-brainer All-Star pick. He’s averaging 19.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists and while his FG% is down a smidgen, he’s over 40% from long range for the first time since the 2001-02 season.
Danny Granger, Pacers
PER: 21.93
Granger is clearly one of the league’s best young small forwards. He’s averaging 26.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists, while shooting a solid 46% from the field. The Pacers aren’t great, but they’re competitive, and Granger is the main reason why. Moreover, he’s averaging an eye-popping 33.3 points per game in January.
Tayshaun Prince, Pistons
PER: 16.37
The Pistons have the fifth-best record in the East right now and deserve to have a player on the All-Star team. Prince’s numbers aren’t eye-popping, but he averages 7.3 points per game and contributes in all areas despite having to cover the opponent’s best perimeter player every night.
Jameer Nelson, Magic
PER: 19.91
Given that Orlando has virtually the same personnel as last season, it’s a bit of a surprise at how much better Nelson is playing. His ppg jumped from 10.9 to 16.4 and his FG% jumped from 46.9% to 50.4%, which is tremendous for a guard. His three-point shooting (43.8%) is outstanding. Rashard Lewis (PER: 18.05) may get the nod, but I think Nelson is more deserving.
Vince Carter, Nets
PER: 21.89
I’m not a huge fan of Vinsanity, but he’s averaging 22.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists while shooting better than 40% from long range. Truthfully, this spot could go to a number of guys from better teams – Rajon Rondo, Mo Williams, Allen Iverson, Mike Bibby, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Rashard Lewis – but Carter smokes them all numbers-wise.
Bubbling under: Rajon Rondo, Mo Williams, Allen Iverson, Caron Butler, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Mike Bibby, Jose Calderon, Rashard Lewis
WESTERN CONFERENCE STARTERS
Chris Paul, Hornets
PER: 30.53
After a rough 5-5 start, Paul has the Hornets back in the thick of the hunt for the #2 playoff spot in the West. He has the second-highest PER in the league and is averaging 20.4 points and 11.3 assists per game. He also leads the league in steals (2.82) and is on the short list of serious MVP candidates.
Kobe Bryant, Lakers
PER: 25.48
Kobe’s minutes are down 3.0 per game, which explains why his numbers have taken a bit of a dip. Still, he’s averaging 27.0 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists, and his FG% is up over 48% for the first time in his career. The Lakers have the best record in the West and Kobe would be favored to win his second consecutive MVP if not for the Cavs’ winning ways.
Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks
PER: 23.78
If Carmelo Anthony hadn’t gotten injured, he might have earned this spot, but Dirk’s Mavs are just three games back of the Nuggets in the standings and he’s having another great season. He is averaging 25.3 points and 8.4 rebounds, and is shooting better than 40% from the field.
Tim Duncan, Spurs
PER: 24.33
Two words: sustained excellence. TD is averaging 20.4 points and 10.1 rebounds while shooting almost 52% from the field. Plus, he’s one of the best (if not the best) defensive big men in the game.
Yao Ming, Rockets
PER: 22.67
Yao has had to play without Tracy McGrady for a good portion of the season, but the Rockets are right in the thick of the playoff hunt in the West. He leads the Rockets in scoring, rebounding, blocks and is shooting almost 87% from the free throw line.
WESTERN CONFERENCE RESERVES
Brandon Roy, Blazers
PER: 25.06
Roy’s scoring is up to 22.8 points per game this season (from 19.1 ppg last season) in no small part due to his increased accuracy (+2.1%) from the field. The Blazers look like a playoff team and Roy is a big reason why.
Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
PER: 18.18
‘Melo’s Nuggets are playing well even though his FG% has taken a dive to 43.7% this season. His scoring is down, but he’s rebounding well (7.3) and his three-point accuracy is up to 42%, which is a huge improvement.
Tony Parker, Spurs
PER: 23.23
Parker is setting career highs in points (21.3) and assists (6.7), he’s never been more accurate from long range (40.0%) or from the charity stripe (81.5%). Manu Ginobili has been solid, but Parker is the second-most deserving Spur this season.
Pau Gasol, Lakers
PER: 22.49
Despite the return of Andrew Bynum, Gasol’s rebounding (9.4) as well as he ever has, and he’s continuing to thrive in his role as Kobe’s sidekick. He’s averaging 17.8 points and is shooting over 55% from the field.
Amare Stoudemire, Suns
PER: 22.44
Stoudemire is averaging 21.8 points and 8.5 rebounds, and is shooting almost 55% from the field. Even though the Suns have slowed the pace down, Stoudemire’s numbers are still stellar.
Chauncey Billups, Nuggets
PER: 20.98
Billups is averaging 18.7 points and 6.8 assists for the Nuggets, but more importantly he has brought a defensive culture to Denver (and that’s not easy to do).
Shaquille O’Neal, Suns
PER: 23.75
A revitalized Shaq is producing 17.4 points and 9.0 rebounds in just 30.1 minutes. There are a number of players that could replace him on the All-Star team, but I think everyone around the league recognizes just how good Shaq is when he’s motivated.
Bubbling under: Manu Ginobili, Al Jefferson, David West, Paul Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge, Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur
Voting continues at NBA.com through January 19th.
1/22/09 Update: The starters have been announced.
When I saw the headline — “’09 free agents may be better than ’10 class” — I was ready to jump all over David Aldridge for saying that any free agent class could be better than the one that will likely feature LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire. But as I read the full article, he made some sense. I still don’t agree with him, but I see his point.
Here’s a look at the possible free agents in ’09:
Those with asterisks either have options for ’09 or can terminate existing contracts for ’09, and many are expected to do one or the other, for one reason or another:
Kobe Bryant*, Carlos Boozer, Shawn Marion, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Hedo Turkoglu*, Mehmet Okur*, Andre Miller, Mike Bibby, Jason Kidd, Allen Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, Kyle Korver*, Anderson Varejao*, Drew Gooden, Stephon Marbury, Grant Hill, Brandon Bass, Joe Smith, Wally Szczerbiak, Zaza Pachulia and Anthony Parker. Jermaine O’Neal could join the group if he walks away from $23 million next season. (Don’t hold your breath. There’s no asterisk by Boozer because he’s already said he’s opting out next summer.)
Aldridge has four major arguments:
1. 2010 is fool’s gold.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that unless seismic changes take place, James is either going to stay in Cleveland in 2010 or go to New York. Maybe Los Angeles. Wade will almost certainly choose between Miami, New York, L.A. and Chicago. Bosh will choose between the preceding cities and, perhaps, Detroit. And that’s it.
Without the Big Three on the market for most NBA cities, the ’10 class loses a good bit of its luster. That’s going to leave a lot of teams with max money to spend on mostly not-max players.
2. Given the recession, owners will not want to spend.
Only seven or eight teams are going to be over the luxury tax threshold this season. That number isn’t going up any time soon. Fewer teams contributing luxury taxes to their fellow competitors will further erode many teams’ bottom lines.
“People have spent (in recent years) not to be a tax payer,” says a CEO of a major market team. “Indiana really can’t afford to spend up to the tax based on their local economy. But they do, because everyone else is doing it … now, I think you’re going to see teams having to make a lot of tough decisions on spending.”
3. Since fewer teams have cap space this summer, ’09 will have more opportunity.
The point is, there will be far fewer ’09 suitors than ’10 teams. And while Bryant is equally not likely to leave L.A. for smaller-revenue teams this summer, those teams are nonetheless in a buyer’s market similar to that of Major League Baseball. There will be solid, veteran players available who may well have to settle for cents on the dollar instead of bigger paydays. A wise team will likely get a whole lot more bang for its reduced buck in ’09.
Says one extremely high-ranking team executive: “This is going to be a nuclear winter for free agents. I would not want to be one this summer. So, if the point is that this summer will be great because there will be bargains galore, you are on the money.”
4. ’10 is loaded with wings, while ’09 has better point guards and bigs.
The ’10 group is lousy with wings — big wings, small wings, fast wings, shooting wings. But so is the whole NBA. The worst teams in the league — Oklahoma City, Washington, Minnesota, Memphis — all have perfectly fine wing players. It’s the point guards and centers that most of them lack, and so does the 2010 class.
Point guards available in two years: Nash. He’s it. And he’ll be 35 on opening night, 2010.
Point guards available next year: Kidd (who, granted, will be 36 on opening night, 2009), Miller and Bibby.
Quality bigs under 35 in two years: Bosh, Nowitzki and Chandler.
Quality bigs under 35 next summer: Boozer, Okur, Varejao, Wallace. Not-great-but good ones include Dallas’ Bass, Chicago’s Gooden and Atlanta’s Pachulia.
I don’t disagree with any of his individual points, but I don’t believe that they combine to make the ’09 class better than the ’10 class. To say that one class is better than another is to say that the collection of talent in one is greater than the other. That’s simply not the case here. It doesn’t matter if only a few cities have a shot at LeBron, D-Wade, Bosh and Amare — those four players hold more value than the entire ’09 class. (All right, maybe they don’t, but you get my point.) Just because the Grizzlies won’t have a shot at LeBron, it doesn’t make the ’09 class better. It might make it better for the Grizzlies, or for any other team with cap space in ’09 and no shot at LeBron, but it doesn’t make ’09 a better class on the whole.
And just because there may more bargains in ’09 than ’10 doesn’t make the former better, it just means that there may be better value available.
Aldridge’s points are all valid, it’s just his conclusion that I don’t agree with. When comparing two free agent classes, the one with more talent is the one that’s better. The other class may have a few traits that will make it appealing to certain teams, but that only makes it better to those individual teams.
Yahoo! Sports is reporting that the Miami Heat and the Cleveland Cavaliers are in trade discussions involving former All-Star Shawn Marion.
The Cavaliers have had ongoing discussions with the Miami Heat about an Anderson Varejao and Wally Szczerbiak for Shawn Marion trade, a league executive familiar with the discussions said.
Miami has had discussions with several teams lately on Marion, including the Toronto Raptors and Sacramento Kings, sources say, but Cleveland could deliver the most intriguing proposition. Marion has struggled with the Heat – averaging well below his career averages in scoring and rebounding – but several league executives believe he’ll be more motivated and valuable with a championship contender. That’s the reason Cleveland is entertaining the possibility. GM Danny Ferry and coach Mike Brown are wondering whether Marion could be the difference in a conference final against the Celtics.
Nothing is imminent, but it’s an intriguing possibility. Since Marion’s trade to Miami for Shaquille O’Neal last season, his value has steadily declined. Before the season, his agent, Dan Fegan, turned down a three-year, $30 million extension. Marion will be lucky to get more on the market this summer. Marion, 30, makes $17.8 million this season.
For the Heat, Szczerbiak has a $13 million expiring contract, and Varejao has a player’s option on $6.2 million. He’ll likely opt out. This leaves Miami with a chance to negotiate a new contract with Varejao, or let him lapse and allow the Heat even more cap space for the summer.. Still, Cleveland is 20-4 and hesitant to mess with the chemistry. Nevertheless, the Cavs are trying desperately to win a championship with James prior to 2010 free agency.
Brown loves to play big lineups with Varejao on the floor, but Marion could give the Cavs the versatility on defense that he did the Suns. In the same series, Marion could cover Tony Parker and Tim Duncan. Against the Celtics, Marion could spend time on Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett. For the Cavs, it’s something to consider as the days and weeks churn toward the Feb. 17 trade deadline.
Varejao has played very well this season (PER: 17.82, #17 amongst PFs) while Marion has not been as productive as in years past (PER: 15.92, #15 amongst SFs), but he’s still an above average forward. As the article stated, the upside for the Cavs is Marion’s versatility, especially on the defensive end. Offensively, he’s a nice match for LeBron and Mo Williams because he doesn’t need to have plays run for him to have an impact. He’ll get many of his points on offensive rebounds or on the break.
If I were running the Heat, this is not a trade I would make. Szczerbiak’s contract is expiring, so he’s not the problem. The article states that Anderson Varejao is likely to opt out of the final year of his contract, but what if he doesn’t? If the Heat want to make a run at Carlos Boozer next summer, they need to get rid of Mark Blount’s contract, not potentially take on another deal that runs through the 2009-10 season. If they can get rid of Blount (or Udonis Haslem, which would be a lot easier), they’ll have enough cap space to sign Boozer and will then have a great shot at locking Dwyane Wade up long-term in the summer of 2010.
If Miami is certain that Varejao will opt out, then there is little risk to the trade. They’ll give themselves a backup if Boozer decides to stay in Utah or sign elsewhere, but they’re likely to have that backup plan anyway if Varejao stayed in Cleveland. But if they pull the trigger on this trade and Varejao elects to play out his contract (or gets injured), then they won’t have the cap space necessary to sign Boozer.
I wouldn’t risk it.
Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.
The phrase “Summer of 2010” has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.
Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?
1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global icon” and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)
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