New Rules and The Five Best Players on the Trade Market
The MLB trade deadline is a mere two weeks away. But so far, as a result of stipulations sprouting from the league’s most recent collective bargaining agreement, including the addition of an extra wild card spot in each league, the market has been quiet, too quiet. As one baseball executive told Yahoo’s Jeff Passan, “we’re all waiting for somebody else to make the first move.”
With that second wild card spot looming large, a lot more teams consider themselves contenders at this point in the season than would in years past. Eleven of the 14 American League squads are within two games of a playoff spot, and half of the NL’s 16 teams are within three.
What effect the surge in contenders will have on trade activity remains to be seen. When just about everybody thinks they have a shot at the playoffs, a lot of teams that might have been content to coast along become buyers. Just look to the Miami Marlins for your case in point. Despite currently being three games under .500, six back from that final playoff spot, and towards the bottom of the barrel in runs (28th), average (24th), on-base percentage (23rd), and slugging (23rd), they sent two prospects to the Astros for Carlos Lee. But just as many would-be sellers may be more inclined to hold on to their stars and see what comes of it.
Then there’s the new rules regarding compensatory draft picks to consider. In the past, a team that traded for a big name in his contract year knew that even if they couldn’t resign him in the offseason, they’d at least get an early draft pick for their troubles. Take the 2004 Carlos Beltran trade for example. The Astros weren’t able to sign him in the offseason, but they did get a pick in the supplemental first round of the 2005 draft (38th overall). If that trade happened today, they’d get no such selection. Teams will now only be compensated for players lost in free agency if they plays for that team the entire season, so a rental really is just a rental. Even if a player does stay in the same place all year, teams will only get draft compensation for a lost free agent if they tender him a “qualifying offer,” which is a one-year deal worth the average of the league’s top 125 salaries, or around $12.5 million.
All this means that even the best players on the trade market likely won’t command as much in return as they would have just last year. But at this point, the few teams that are looking to sell haven’t adjusted their expectations to match the new rules, which has contributed to the gridlock. However, as we get closer to the July 31 deadline, both buyers and sellers will get desperate, and the market is sure to heat up. As such, let’s countdown the five best players that just might find themselves in a new uniform come August.
5. Carlos Quentin, OF, San Diego Padres
This spot could just as easily have gone to Cubs’ righty Matt Garza, but there’s a dearth of hitting on the market this year, so Quentin’s value is skewed upward. Plus, I’m on a roll talking about guys named Carlos. Anyway, Quentin is currently hitting .266 with eight home runs and 21 RBI. Don’t discount him for that RBI total though, Quentin missed the first few weeks of the season due to injury and is the lone bright spot in perhaps the league’s worst offensive lineup (the Padres are dead last in runs and slugging, 27th in average, and 25th in OBP). More important than any of those stats is Quentin’s.391 on-base percentage.
CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported that at least four teams, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Miami, have expressed interest in Quentin, although it’s uncertain whether the Marlins are still in the running following the Lee acquisition. Additionally, the Tigers and Blue Jays were once believed to be targeting him, but that may no longer be the case.
4. Ryan Dempster, SP, Chicago Cubs
With a record of 36-52, which has them 13.5 games behind in the NL Central, the Cubs are one of the few definitive sellers in the league. The 35 year-old Dempster has made 14 starts this year and has a record of 5-3, a 1.02 WHIP and a major league best 1.86 ERA. Plus, after throwing six shutout innings in a win against the Reds on Friday, Dempster has now gone 33 straight innings without giving up a run. That’s the longest scoreless innings streak for a Cubs pitcher since 1969 and is the longest in the majors this season. Orel Hershiser owns the record for the longest such streak, the righty pitched 59 consecutive scoreless innings in 1988.
The Sporting News reported that as many as ten teams (including the Braves, Red Sox, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Dodgers, Yankess, and Nationals) have expressed interest in Dempster, and that a deal could be imminent. On Monday, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that the Red Sox have been Dempster’s most agressive suitors.
3. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Upton is a two-time all-star and finished fourth in the NL MVP voting last season after hitting .289 with 31 home runs, 88 RBI, and 21 stolen bases. The 24 year-old outfielder’s numbers have dropped off this season, but given his youth and upside, he’s one of the deadline’s hottest commodities. Yesterday, Paul Swydan of Fangraphs discussed just how rare it is for a player who’s had as much success as Upton has at such a young age to be traded. Nonetheless, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers has stated publicly that he’s open to discussions.
The Pirates, Braves, and Rangers have all expressed interest in Upton. On Monday, Fox Sport’s Ken Rosenthal reported that if he so desired, the young slugger could use his no-trade clause to prevent being dealt to four teams: the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, and Cubs.
2. Zack Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Greinke is having one of the best seasons of his career, the 28 year-old righty is 9-3 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 117 strikeouts in 116 innings pitched. A bad month of July and a recent announcement that he’ll be given 10 days of rest before his next start, which is now scheduled for July 24, might make some less willing to make a deal. However, a number of teams, including the White Sox and Angels have expressed interest. And why not? Greinke is the best pitcher on the market, bar one, and is smack dab in the middle of his prime. Jon Heyman reported that the Brewers were ready to offer Greinke a five-year deal worth $100 million, but were skeptical that he would accept their bid mid-season and forgo a run on the open market. If they don’t think they can resign him, it might be in the Brewers’ best interest to make a deal, considering their 42-47 record, which has them eight games back in the NL Central. The team will surely be weighing all possibilities: resigning, losing him in free agency and getting some compensatory draft picks, or making a trade for prospects.
1. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Who else could be number one? This year, Hamels is 11-4 with a 3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 125 strikeouts in 126 innings. Hamels’ situation is near identical to Greinke’s, only the stats are better and the financial numbers are bigger. The Phillies are prepared to offer the 28 year-old lefty a five-year deal worth $120 million, but like Greinke, it’s doubtful Hamels accept anything midseason and forgo a chance to test the waters of free agency, where he will command big money, like $25 mil a year big.
Scouts from seven different teams were on hand to see Hamels pitch an eight inning, six hit, one run gem in Denver on Sunday. The teams represented were the Rangers, Pirates, Tigers, Marlins, Dodgers, Giants, and Angels. But the same day, Jon Heyman listed ten teams that wanted to be Cole-powered. Four of them (Texas, Detroit, and both LA teams) were among those that sent Scouts to Colorado, but Heyman also included the White Sox, Red Sox, Braves, Orioles, Yankees, and Blue Jays in the list of Hamels’ potential suitors. So between those two reports, 13 teams, or nearly half the league, has expressed interest in acquiring the Phillies’ ace. It’s going to be an interesting two weeks.
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