Closer. It’s one of the toughest jobs in baseball, in all of sports even. Or so we’re led to believe. What is it about getting three outs in the ninth inning that’s so different from getting three outs in the seventh? Why do managers make situational decisions in the seventh (e.g. bringing in lefties to face lefties) but insist on using their pre-assigned “closer” in the ninth? What if the situation in the seventh is far more dire than that of the ninth (e.g. if the three, four, and five hitters are due up or the bases are loaded)? Why isn’t the best pitcher on the mound in the biggest spots?

I’ll tell you why: saves, the only statistic that changes the way the game is played, as well as the way it’s financed. A save situation is the only time a manager makes a decision based on arbitrary numerals rather than what’s going to help his team win. The only time he’d do it on purpose anyway. To quote Michael Lewis in Moneyball:

The central insight that led [Billy Beane] to turn minor league nobodies into successful big league closers and to refuse to pay them the many millions a year they demanded once they became free agents was that it was more efficient to create a closer than to buy one. Established closers were systematically overpriced, in large part because of the statistic by which closers were judged in the marketplace: “saves.” The very word made the guy who achieved them sound vitally important. But the situation typically described by the save—the bases empty in the ninth inning with the team leading—was far less critical than a lot of other situations pitchers faced. The closer’s statistic did not have the power of language; it was just a number. You could take a slightly above average pitcher and drop him into the closer’s role, let him accumulate some gaudy number of saves, and then sell him off. You could, in essence, buy a stock, pump it up with false publicity, and sell it off for much more than you’d paid for it.

Before I really get started I suppose I should give full disclosure. I’m a Mets fan, woe be upon me, and that’s why this stuff’s on my mind. For some reason Terry Collins insists on calling Frank Francisco his closer. Frank Francisco, he of the 8.59 ERA and 2.05 WHIP. He of the three losses, 14 earned runs, eight walks, and 22 hits in just 14.2 innings pitched. He is our closer, and nobody else. All those questions in the first paragraph, yeah, I’ve been shouting them at my television over the past few days.

Yet it’s not those numbers that most horrify me, it’s these: two years and $12 million, or Frank Frank’s contract. It’s because of them that Francisco remains in his position, “for now.”

Like so many other closers, Francisco has but one man to thank for those numbers. That man is Jerome Holtzman, the sportswriter who invented the save in 1960, leading to it becoming an official statistic in 1969.

There was a time when the best relievers were called “firemen,” and they pitched when they were needed most. Bases loaded with one out in the eighth? That’s fireman time. Closer time is the ninth inning, with a three run lead and nobody on base, which has lead some to call it “the most overrated position in sports.”

Those who believe in the sanctity of the closer will tell you the ninth inning is different, there’s more pressure, it gets in your head the way no other inning can. To them I say this: bullshit. Dave Smith of Retrosheet conducted a study of late-inning leads from 1944 to 2003 and an additional 14 seasons prior. He found that regardless of strategy, teams that enter the ninth inning with a lead win 95 percent of the time. The figure doesn’t even vary all that much, the high was 96.7 percent (1909), while the low was 92.5 percent (1941).

Granted, those figures apply to any lead, not just “save situations,” so they’re not really relevant to this discussion, right? Wrong. Smith calculated the figures for those scenarios as well, and they’re not all that different. Going into the ninth inning, a team ahead by one run wins 85 percent of the time, if they’re two runs up it’s 94 percent, and a three-run lead gets you 96 percent.

The problem for most teams is that they obsessively save their closer for the ninth, he might go a week without seeing action during a losing streak. As a result, they lose in the middle innings. The Mets have the exact opposite problem. Their fireman situations often come in the ninth inning, but only because Francisco creates them. They save the guy they think is their best reliever, because he’s making the most money, and waste better pitchers like Bobby Parnell, Tim Byrdak, and Jon Rauch in the middle innings. Now, the Mets think Francisco is their best for a reason, and maybe he is. But he’s not their best right now, and until he is there should be someone else on the hill in critical situations, regardless of what inning it is.

– After trading Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals over the weekend, many speculate that the Indians could be setting up for a fire sale soon and would look to deal ace Cliff Lee. But according to MLB.con’s Anthony Castrovince, the Tribe aren’t keen on dealing Lee, who the club has an $8 million option with a $1 million buyout option on in 2010. Cleveland might be inclined to part with Lee if the right deal comes along, but they’re not going to just give the ace of their staff away because they’re out of contention this season.

– Garrett Atkins started at third base for the Rockies on Monday and while manager Jim Tracy said it’s because of his hot bat, ESPN’s Buster Onley believes the club is trying to drum up more trade interest for the 29-year old by getting him on the field. Colorado is in need of some bullpen help and already have Ian Stewart to man the hot corner if they’re successful in trading Atkins.

– The Giants seem to be heating up their pursuit for White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye, who would have to waive his no-trade clause if Chicago were to work out any deal involving him. San Fran, who leads the NL Wild Card race by a game and a half over the Rockies, are desperate for a middle-of-the-order bat and would love to put a package together to acquire a hitter with some pop.

– Speaking of the Giants, the club would seemingly love to trade former starter Jonathan Sanchez now that they have found a replacement for him in the rotation in 26-year old Ryan Sadowski, who pitched masterfully in his big league debut against the Brewers on Sunday. The problem is that Sanchez’s trade value has never been lower as he’s struggled with his command all season and has been demoted to the bullpen. Still, he was once viewed as a potential No. 3 behind Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain in the Giants’ rotation, so some team may still be intrigued by his potential.

– The Mets are apparently reluctant to part with reliever Bobby Parnell according to the New York Daily News.

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Offseason Movement: In a major effort to try and bolster their bullet riddled bullpen, the Mets signed top free agent closer Francisco Rodriguez, who saved a record 62-games last season for the Angels. The Mets also acquired reliever J.J. Putz, outfielder Jeremy Reed and RHP Sean Green in a three team swap with the Mariners and Indians. The club signed free agent starter Freddy Garcia, but after he gave up 15 runs in just seven innings this spring, they reassigned him to minor league camp. Livan Hernandez – yet another free agent signing – fared much better and will be the Mets’ fifth starter when the season opens. Casey Fossum, Alex Cora, Darren O’Day, Rocky Cherry, Connor Robertson and Cory Sullivan round out the rest of New York’s offseason additions.

Top Prospect: Wilmer Flores, SS
Outfield prospect Fernando Martinez also deserves mention here, but Flores is already showing potential at just 17 years old. Flores is light years away from the big leagues, but he’s already drawing comparisons to Miguel Cabrera in terms of his potential at such a young age. The Mets will likely move Flores along slowly and let him develop his skills. There’s absolutely no need to rush him, but he’ll get his opportunity to shine in the next couple of years.

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