It’s always difficult to predict the four teams out of 68 capable of making it deep in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament we refer to as March Madness. There’s always a bracket busting team that takes out a top competitor or even a Cinderella story making it to the Sweet 16 or even further. However, this year may be a little different and actually attending the games might just provide serious excitement for any fan. Here’s how this non-expert believes it could play out.
Small Schools Getting In
Akron and Bucknell are the most dangerous smaller schools with the ability to make it into the tournament. The reason these two top the list is due to the size advantage they bring to the game. Akron features Zeke Marshall at seven feet tall and Bucknell brings Mike Muscala standing 6’11” tall. This will help even the playing field with any of the larger schools bringing a significant size advantage.
Other small schools with a great chance of making into the tournament include Middle Tennessee State, Belmont, Boise State, Davidson, Valparaiso, Weber State and Louisiana Tech. Although it is unlikely that all these schools will make the dance you always have to be aware of the ones that do sneak into the dance. A small school with momentum would be like the Kia Sorento winning the car March Madness Contest, unlikely but you never know! Make sure you pay attention to all the little guys before filling out your bracket.
Top Teams Most Likely for an Early Departure
1. Kansas
The Jayhawks might take a top seed in the tournament, but they’re not as good as their record shows. They lost to a team with an RPI of 229 and nearly lost to another team they should’ve beaten easily. If they draw a team they don’t match up well against, Kansas could make an early exit.
2. Ohio State
Not considered a top five team, but in the top 20, the Buckeyes struggled in February. If this was any indication about how good they really are, this is another team potentially leaving the tournament early.
3. Florida
Showing their struggles on the road makes it hard to believe the Gators can go anywhere in the tournament. They’re tough to beat at home, but they won’t get a single game on their home court during the tournament. Look for Florida to fall victim to an upset early.
Final Four Predicted
Looking at all the top teams, potential Cinderella stories and those middle seeds with the ability to go deep, picking the Final Four is still difficult. However, an easy pick for one of the final four spots is the Indiana Hoosiers. This team is tough and has been ranked at the top most of the year. Another pick for the Final Four is Michigan. They’re ready to make a run and it seems they’ve already cleared their system of some of the losses.
The other two spots in the Final Four are a bit more difficult to predict. There will certainly be a middle seed, maybe a #5 or #6 involved. The team basketball of Notre Dame could support a deep tournament run, but they won’t be there in the Final Four. However, another Big East team will be out of a two or three seed in Georgetown. That only leaves one spot left and it goes to Saint Louis University.
One of my favorite writers, Andy Staples, made a very good point on Friday: Unless there are major upsets today, it will go down as a day that none of us remember. Sure, Oregon fans will likely remember the day the Ducks beat Oregon State to get into the national title game. And Auburn fans probably will remember when they won the SEC title. But other than that, most of us will look back at this day like, “meh.”
Now, if Oregon State or South Carolina do the unthinkable, things might change.
We might forget, at least for a weekend, that Miami has hired and fired and hired and accepted the resignation — all according to Twitter — of Jon Gruden.
The fact that Cam Newton’s dad solicited funds for his son without his son knowing might slip our minds, at least for a day.
Everyone might stop making fun of Rich Rodriguez for blaring Josh Groban at the Michigan football banquet at the end of an emotional plea for his job that is making most Michigan fans cringe.
Some upsets today would make us forget a lot of that. So what I’m saying is the only person rooting harder for those upsets than the people in Fort Worth, Texas is Rich Rodriguez. Seriously, dude. Josh Groban is even dogging you for liking his song. Read the rest of this entry »
Comments Off on Will “Championship Week” live up to the name?
The Big East consists of 16 teams which would seem to make it perfect for a standard tournament where the #1-seed plays the #16-seed, the #2-seed plays the #15-seed and so on.
But such a format would require the two teams that faced each other in the championship game — two teams likely to play in the NCAA Tournament the following week — to play four games in four days. The conference simply does not want to wear down its top teams before the Big Dance.
Also, the conference recognizes the tournament as its Championship, so the top teams should be rewarded in some way. A double bye gives the top four seeds a couple of days rest before their automatic bid into the quarterfinals. The next four teams get a round one bye, which means that the bottom eight teams have to play in the first round on Tuesday. Click here to see the 2010 Big East Men’s Basketball Championship bracket.
Last night, you got a taste of madness…March Madness, as Connecticut/Syracuse played a 6-OT historic Big East quarterfinal game that seemed like it would never end. The player’s performances in this contest sum up why we love this time of the year in college basketball. You watch teams that will fight tooth and nail just to compete for another day. Neither team will receive a special trophy for last night’s game. No, Syracuse gets the opportunity to play West Virginia in a semifinal matchup this evening. Enjoy your hoop du jour.
All times ET…
NBA Friday, 7:30 PM: Indiana Pacers @Atlanta Hawks (NBA TV) Saturday, 9 PM: Los Angeles Clippers @ Denver Nuggets (NBA TV) Sunday, 3:30 PM: Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers (ABC) Sunday, 9 PM: Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors (NBA TV)
NHL Saturday, 3 PM: Ottawa Senators @ Pittsburgh Penguins (CBC) Sunday, 12:30 PM: Philadelphia Flyers@ New York Rangers (NBC)
College Basketball Friday, 7 PM: #13 Villanova vs. #5 Louisville (ESPN) Friday, 7 PM: Maryland vs. #9 Wake Forest (ESPN2) Friday, 9 PM: #23 Arizona State vs. #20 Washington (Fox Sports Net) Friday, 9:30 PM: Boston College vs. #8 Duke (ESPN2) Friday, 9:30 PM: #7 West Virginia vs. #20 Syracuse (ESPN) Friday, 11:30 PM: USC vs. #14 UCLA (Fox Sports Net) Saturday, 1:30 PM & 4 PM: ACC Semifinals (ESPN) Saturday, 1 PM & 3:15 PM: SEC Semifinals (ESPN2) Saturday, 1:40 PM & 4 PM: Big-10 Semifinals (CBS) Saturday, 6 PM: Pac-10 Final (CBS) Saturday, 6 PM: Big 12 Final (ESPN) Saturday, 9 PM: Big East Final (ESPN) Sunday, 1 PM: ACC Final (ESPN) Sunday, 1 PM: SEC Final (CBS) Sunday, 3:30 PM: Big-10 Final (CBS) Sunday, 6 PM: NCAA Tournament Selection Show (CBS)
World Baseball Classic Saturday, 8 PM: Puerto Rico vs. United States from Miami, FL. (MLB Network)
Lately, I’ve been hitting the Joe Lunardi bracketology page over at ESPN on a daily basis — the guy knows his stuff. But I scrolled down and found myself intrigued by one of the comments (by EliSilverman):
Here’s some math to prove just how much better the Big East is than any other conference. The Big East has the lowest average projected seed amongst the top conferences (3.7), surpassing the ACC (4.2), Big 12 (5.5), PAC 10 (6.4), SEC (8.0) and Big 10 (8.1). Now, here’s a bit more math….I predict there’s a 75% chance that the semi-finalists of the Big East tournament also become the Final Four in the Big Dance.
All right, I’m not a math major — I just have an engineering degree — but in order to prove conference strength, it’s not accurate to only average the projected seeds of the teams that get in the tournament. By that logic, Conference USA is the strongest conference because its average projected seed is 2.0 (Memphis).
Eli might say, “Everyone knows that C-USA isn’t the toughest conference because it only has one team in the tournament.” Well, by that logic, the Big 10 is the strongest conference because Lunardi projects that it will get eight tourney bids, one more than the Big East. You can’t have it both ways.
What makes the strongest conference? Is it the quality of the teams at the top? Or is it the strength of the conference from top to bottom. If it’s the former, then the Big East has a great argument. Pitt, UConn and Louisville are legitimate Final Four threats (and are all ranked in the top 5), while the ACC, Big 10 and Big 12 only have one team ranked in the top 7. If you’re going by total conference strength, then it’s hard to beat the Big 10 since it looks like eight of its 11 teams (73%) could get bids. (I know, it’s dumb to have 11 teams in a conference called the Big 10, but that’s another post.) The Big East has 16 teams (a fact glossed over by Big East supporters), so seven bids out of 16 teams (44%) isn’t quite as impressive.
Personally, I go by Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings. The guy knows his stuff, so if he says that the ACC is the strongest conference top-to-bottom, then I believe him. And if he says that the Big 10 is second, then I’ll believe that too.
And as for the “more math” part of Eli’s post, where he says there is a 75% chance that the Big East semifinalists will make up the Final Four, I’d take that bet any day. First, that’s not “math,” that’s a prediction, and an arbitrary one at that. Second, for that prediction to come true, Pitt, UConn, Louisville and a fourth Final Four team (Villanova/Marquette/Syracuse/West Virginia) all have to be in separate regions. It’s likely that Pitt, UConn and Louisville will be split up, but I’d say that the chances of all three making the Final Four (PLUS a fourth Big East team emerging from the fourth region) aren’t quite 75%. Maybe 5%, and that’s being generous.
