Tag: Atlanta Falcons (Page 36 of 66)

      Did the Falcons give up too soon on Robinson?

      August 26, 2009 /

      When the Atlanta Falcons selected receiver Laurent Robinson out of Illinois State in the third round of the 2007 draft, they envisioned the 6’2, 194-pound receiver becoming either a solid No. 2, or possibly even a No. 1 if Roddy White (who struggled in his first two years) failed to develop.

      But after caching 37 passes for 437 yards and a touchdown his rookie year, knee and hamstring injuries limited Robinson to just five receptions in six games last season. With the emergence of second-year receiver Harry Douglas, Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff traded Robinson to the Rams this past April. In exchange, the Falcons and Rams swapped fifth and sixth round picks in the ’09 draft.

      It’s hard to criticize anything Dimitroff has done in his first two offseasons in Atlanta. After all, he hired a solid head coach in Mike Smith, signed free agent Michael Turner, drafted franchise quarterback Matt Ryan, and traded for future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez. It’s no wonder why Dimitroff was named the 2008 NFL Executive of the Year.

      But a couple of years down the road (or possibly much, much sooner), I have a feeling that Dimitroff will look back on the Robinson deal as one of his bigger goof ups. And I don’t say that only because Douglas suffered a season-ending injury in camp this year and Atlanta is in a bit of a bind at slot receiver; I say it because Robinson could emerge as a quality playmaker very soon.

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      Fantasy Football, NFL

      Another reason to be down on Michael Turner this season…

      August 20, 2009 /

      I’ve already mentioned the “Curse of 370,” but Michael Turner is facing yet another challenge this season — a much tougher schedule.

      Here’s a look at Turner’s performance last year against good, mediocre and bad rush defenses:

      – In three games against top 10 rush defenses (Chicago, Philly and Minnesota), Turner averaged 20.3 carries for 60.7 yards and 0.3 TD, which translates to 8.1 fantasy points.

      – In seven games against teams ranked #11-#20 in rush defense (New Orleans x 2, Carolina x 2, Tampa Bay x 2, and San Diego), Turner averaged 23.4 carries for 92.0 yards and 1.0 TD, which equals 15.2 fantasy points.

      – In six games agains teams ranked #21 to #32 in rush defense (Denver, St. Louis, Detroit, Kansas City, Green Bay and Oakland), Turner averaged 25.2 carries for 145.5 yards and 1.5 TD, which is 23.5 fantasy points.

      In short, Turner killed poor rush defenses, did pretty well against mediocre defenses and struggled against good ones. That makes sense, right?

      Heading into the 2009 season, Turner’s schedule is shaping up to be tougher. He has six matchups with teams that finished in the top 10 last year, nine matchups with teams that finished #11-#20, and just one game against a team that finished #22-#32 (#22 Buffalo). On average, he’s going from a schedule that has an average rank of 19.3 against the rush to one that has an average rank of 13.6. Not good.

      So assuming that Turner has the same averages against each of the three groups, and last year’s finish is a reasonable expectation for how these defenses will fair (a big assumption, I know), then Turner would project to 358 carries for 1338 yards and 13 TD. Those are still good numbers, but a far cry from the 1699 yards and 17 TD he posted last year.

      Assuming he continues to be a non-factor in the Atlanta passing game (and with the addition of Tony Gonzalez, this is not a big assumption), and posts another six catches for 41 yards, then these rushing and receiving totals translate to 221 fantasy points (in a high performance PPR league). That would have made him RB15 last year.

      I still like Turner — hell, I have him in a keeper league, so I’m rooting for the guy — but I just don’t think he’s first round material this season in PPR leagues.

      Fantasy Football

      Gonzo struggling to adapt in Atlanta?

      August 20, 2009 /

      In Chris Mortensen’s training camp preview of the Atlanta Falcons, Tony Gonzalez admits that he’s struggling to adapt to his new surroundings.

      “I’ll admit I’m still somewhat uncomfortable,” said Gonzalez. “I’m learning a new offense, I’m making new friends, learning a new freeway system. All the things going into switching teams, I’m going through it right now and it’s kind of tough, like being a rookie all over again.”

      Is that a good or bad thing?

      “I think it’s going to help make me a better player,” said Gonzalez.

      “You get in a whole new system, I’m blocking more at the point of attack, I have different route-running schemes and I’m working with a new quarterback. I think that helps you grow. When you’re uncomfortable like that, or taken out of your element, you either adapt to it or you don’t. When you see the talent on this team, you are motivated to adapt.”

      Gonzalez is the consummate pro, so chances are he’ll eventually settle into his new situation and be productive. And considering the amount of time he spent in Kansas City, it’s understandable that it’s taking a while to get adjusted in Atlanta.

      But considering the amount of blocking that he’s going to do in Atlanta’s offense, he might not have the kind of impact that many thought he would when the Falcons traded for him earlier this offseason. That’s not to say that he won’t be effective; he just might not tear up the stat sheet in Atlanta like he did for so many years in KC.

      That said, he’s still going to be a security blanket for quarterback Matt Ryan, especially in the red zone and on third downs.


      Gonzo was the top TE last season, but changing teams is never easy, so for that reason I believe that Jason Witten and Antonio Gates — who have had more consistency this offseason — are primed to outscore Gonzalez. Plus, the Chiefs were trailing for most of 2008, and that lends itself to catches and yards in garbage time. The Falcons should be leading games in the second half, so that means more Michael Turner and less Gonzo.

      NFL

      Will the ‘Curse of 370’ slow Turner down?

      August 19, 2009 /

      Michael Turner carried the ball 376 times last season, which is a bad omen if you believe in the “Curse of 370.”

      The stat was “discovered” by Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz in 2004.

      The “370 Curse” has reared its head in the Falcons locker room before.

      Running backs who rush for more than 370 carries in a season will either have a significant decline or get hurt the following season. Only one running back, Eric Dickerson, has been able to beat the curse.

      After Jamal Anderson powered the Falcons to the Super Bowl with 410 carries in 1998, he suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in 1999 and was never the same.

      Gerald Riggs ran for 1,719 yards on 397 carries in 1985. He followed up that season with 1,327 yards on 343 carries but although he played five more seasons, he never eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark again.

      Some of the latest players to succumb the curse include Seattle’s Shaun Alexander, Kansas City’s Larry Johnson, Tennessee’s Eddie George and Miami’s Ricky Williams.

      For their part, the Falcons don’t believe Turner was overused, and when they need to run the ball, they’re going to call Turner’s number.

      I like Turner this year, but I don’t think he’s going to rack up 370+ carries again this season. Assuming he doesn’t get injured, I expect him to carry the ball 320-350 times. He’s not a big part of the Falcons’ passing game, so that hurts his fantasy stock in PPR leagues.

      It’s going to be interesting to see if Turner can avoid the “curse” this season.

      Fantasy Football, NFL

      Daily Six-Pack: NFL preseason rewind

      August 17, 2009 /

      Here are six quick-hit thoughts on some of Week 1’s preseason NFL action.

      1. Stafford was impressive.
      While it was only the first preseason game of his young career, Matthew Stafford was awfully impressive Saturday against the Falcons. In his debut, Stafford completed 7 of 14 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. And if Keary Colbert didn’t have hands made of concrete, Stafford’s numbers would have been more impressive. Granted, he was playing against Atlanta’s backups, Detroit kept their starting offensive line largely intact and he did throw an interception that was returned 41 yards for a touchdown. But the key was that Stafford looked comfortable in the pocket, showed confidence in his throws and for a rookie, displayed great footwork and overall mechanics. He still has much to prove, but if he continues to play this well throughout the preseason, it might be hard for the Lions to keep the rookie off the field in his first year.

      2. The Bears secondary looked shaky.
      If Saturday’s preseason loss to the Bills was any indication of how Chicago’s secondary will play in the regular season, then the Bears are in trouble. Lee Evans abused cornerback Nathan Vasher repeatedly, while Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick completed over 88 percent of their passes. Granted, it was only one preseason game and rookie sixth round pick Al Afalava was impressive against the run. But the Bears look awfully thin in the secondary and if the starters perform as poorly as they did last night for the remainder of the preseason, then trouble could be on the horizon.

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      NFL

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