2012 NFL Free Agency: Breaking down the Wide Receivers

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson celebrates a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills in the fourth quarter of their NFL football game in Orchard Park, New York October 9, 2011. REUTERS/Doug Benz (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Free agency in the NFL begins on March 13 and leading up to that date I’ll go position by position while highlighting the best players, best bargains, as well as the riskiest investments.

Best in Class: Take your pick.
This is the deepest pool of free agent receivers that I’ve seen in a long time. Wes Welker, Mike Wallace, Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Stevie Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Reggie Wayne and Robert Meachem comprise the top 10 free agents, but Mario Manningham, Laurent Robinson and Harry Douglas could also be available next month. Welker seems like a perfect fit for the Patriots’ offense and will likely stay in New England, but Wallace could be available if the Steelers can’t figure out a way to fit him under their cap. When healthy and not in the midst of a contract holdout, V-Jax is one of the more versatile receivers in the league in that he’s a vertical threat with soft hands who can also block in the running game. Bowe, Colston, Lloyd, Johnson, Jackson and Wayne have been, or still are No. 1 options in the passing game and Meachem certainly has the talent to be a No. 1 given his skill set. Teams needing a receiver have no excuse not to address that hole this offseason.

The Biggest Risk: DeSean Jackson
Jackson is only 25 and is drenched in big play ability. But he has 35 drops over the last four seasons, was a ghost at times last year because he was seemingly worried about his contract situation, and sometimes costs his team on the field with his immaturity. Because of his big play ability and success as a punt returner, plenty of teams will be interested in Jackson’s services next month. But with so many other free agent receivers available, teams weary of his inconsistency and maturity issues can cross his name off the list if they want to. His agent must pull his hair out thinking about how much money Jackson has cost himself over the past year.

The Best Value: Brandon Lloyd
Lloyd is still going to be paid like a low-end No. 1 but at 31 he’ll be cheaper than guys like Welker, Jackson, Bowe, Wallace and Colston. He didn’t post the same numbers in 2011 as he did in 2010 but don’t forget that the quarterback situation in Denver was brutal and Sam Bradford couldn’t stay healthy in St. Louis (the team Lloyd was traded to midseason). Even at 31, Lloyd is an explosive downfield threat who also has a large catch radius. The Rams would be wise to keep him in St. Louis but if he were to hit the open market, he could turn out to be a real value for his eventual production.

Best Cost-Effective Bargain: Robert Meachem
Meachem doesn’t have the numbers or name power as other receivers that could become available next month but at 27 his ceiling is still somewhat high. He’s consistent, as he’s averaged a touchdown every 10 receptions in the regular season and has just 11 drops over the last four years. He may never develop into a No. 1 but he’s worth a shot for a team like Jacksonville that is thin at receiver and has other holes to address this offseason (and thus, might not want to spend big at one position). Meachem could wind up being a cost-effective alternative to Jackson, Bowe, Colston and the other big-name receivers in this free agent pool.

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Receiver and defensive backfield just two of many issues for Rams

SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 13:  Laurent Robinson #11 of the St. Louis Rams carries the ball during the game against the Seattle Seahawks on September 13, 2009 at Qwest Field in Seattle, Washington. The Seahawks defeated the Rams 28-0. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

Merry preseason, everyone. It’s been a long offseason, but football is finally gearing up again and to celebrate I’m rolling out a new series on TSR entitled “2010 NFL Question Marks,” where I discuss one or two of the biggest concerns that teams have heading into the new season. Granted, some teams have more issues than others, but I’ll primarily be focusing on the biggest problem areas. Today I’ll be discussing the woeful Rams and their concerns at receiver and in the defensive backfield.

When a team earns the right to select at the top of the draft, it’s easy to spot its holes.

And the Rams have a lot of holes.

Outside of running back Steven Jackson and a linebacker corps led by second-year player James Laurinaitis, the Rams have issues at nearly every position. The hope is that young players like Sam Bradford, Rodger Saffold, Jason Smith and Chris Long will step up in due time, but it’s going to be a while before guys like Bradford are ready to make major contributions.

The receiver and defensive backfield are currently the team’s two biggest weaknesses heading into the new year. Wideout was already a concern before Donnie Avery went down to a season ending injury and now that they won’t even have him, the Rams have an even bigger hole at the position.

I’ve been very high on Laurent Robinson since he came into the league as a third round pick of the Falcons in 2007. But despite flashing his potential on occasion, he’s been a dud due to injuries. He caught 13 passes for 167 yards and one touchdown in his first four games last year, then suffered an injury that shelved him for the rest of the season. With Avery out, he has the opportunity to be the No. 1 guy but can he stay healthy for 16 games? He hasn’t yet.

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Five breakout wide receiver candidates for the 2010 NFL season

KANSAS CITY, MO - DECEMBER 14:  Dwayne Bowe #82 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates a touchdown for a 14-0 lead over the San Diego Chargers during the second quarter on December 14, 2008 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.  The Chiefs lost 22-21.  (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

I hate writing intros and I don’t think many people read them anyway. There’s a good chance you’re not even reading this write now, so let’s just get on with it.

(Side Note: This list isn’t directed at fantasy football readers. If owners want to apply this information for fantasy purposes, please, be my guest. But I encourage you to check out my TSR partner John Paulsen’s work if you’re looking specifically for fantasy-related content. Just do so after you read this piece………..you’re not even reading this, are you?)

1. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
I’m going to start off with a somewhat obvious candidate in Bowe based on offseason reports (he’s also already shown that he can be productive). But make a mental note (seriously, write it down) that I’ve been high on the former LSU product ever since his performance in the 2007 Sugar Bowl against Note Dame (even though he was arguably outperformed by Early Doucet). After spending a grueling offseason participating in Larry Fitzgerald’s football camp, Bowe is reportedly down to 210 pounds after showing up to camp last year at 240. After spending most of preseason in Todd Haley’s doghouse last year, Bowe is now running with the Chiefs’ first-team offense this summer. At 6’2 and 210 pounds, the problem with Bowe has never been about size or physical tools. His issues have always lied within his work ethic, or lack thereof. But if he’s focused, he could have a tremendous year in Haley’s offense and could go from a promising player to a Pro Bowler in one season.

2. Johnny Knox, Bears
As John wrote in his breakdown of sleeper fantasy receivers last week, it’s hard to pick out just one Bear receiver that could break out this season. That’s because in Mike Martz’s offense, they all could break out. But I’m going with Knox over returner-turned-receiver Devin Hester, whom some believe will be Chicago’s biggest breakout player. Knox has reportedly been targeted more than any receiver in Bears’ camp so far this offseason and he’s the perfect fit for Martz’s up-temp offense. That’s because he not only has elite speed, but he’s also a sound route-runner and he’s already drawing comparisons to Torry Holt in terms of how his game translates in Martz’s offense. Assuming Jay Cutler targets him in the regular season as much as he has so far in training camp, a 1,000-yard season is well within Knox’s reach.

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2010 Fantasy Football Preview: Sleeper WRs

SAN FRANCISCO - NOVEMBER 12: Johnny Knox #13 of the Chicago Bears in action against the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park on November 12, 2009 in San Francisco, California. The 49ers won 10-6. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Yesterday, I listed a few sleeper RBs that I’m targeting in the mid to late rounds, and today I’ll tackle the WR position. I’ve already discussed a few 10th-round-type players in the WR preview — specifically Derrick Mason, Malcom Floyd and Devin Aromashodu — so I’ll limit this list to players with average draft positions (ADP) in the 11th round or later.

Johnny Knox (10.11) & Devin Hester (10.11)
I’ve already broken my 11th round rule. Knox and Hester are practically going on the 11th, so I’ll give myself a pass. Truth is, I like all the Bears receivers in Mike Martz’s wide open system, but I’m not sure which guy will finish the best stats. Hester seems built to be a Wes Welker slot-type guy (with more quickness), while Knox has a ton of speed. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune thinks that Knox is emerging as Jay Cutler’s top target and Rotoworld speculates that it’s because of his ability to control his elite speed a la Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. It’s entirely possible that all three wideouts will have fantasy relevant seasons.

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Rams wise to pass on Terrell Owens – will Bengals pursue him?

CHARLOTTE, NC - OCTOBER 25:  Terrell Owens #81 of the Buffalo Bills warms up before a game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on October 25, 2009 in Charlotte, North Carolina.  (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Donnie Avery, Laurent Robinson and Jason Smith are still largely inexperienced.

Sam Bradford, Mardy Gilyard and Rodger Saffold are really inexperienced.

That’s why the Rams’ decision to pass on Terrell Owens today was the correct one. This is a team in rebuilding mode and adding a 37-year-old receiver coming off a bad year and who has a history of criticizing quarterbacks isn’t ideal. Can T.O. still contribute in the right situation? Yes, but not in St. Louis.

Some are quick to point out that T.O. wasn’t a distraction last year in Buffalo. That’s because he couldn’t have been a distraction – the team was awful and so was he. Does anyone really think that he would have kept his mouth shut if he had posted solid numbers week in and week out and the Bills still lost? Not a chance.

The Rams are better off in the long run. Avery, Robinson and Gilyard all of upside – Owens doesn’t. Besides, what’s the best case scenario if the Rams sign T.O.? He plays well and they go 4-12 instead of 2-14? It’s saying a lot that Owens would even be worth two wins, so signing him would almost seem unnecessary for St. Louis.

Cincinnati, however, is a different story. They made the playoffs last year, have a veteran quarterback at the helm and in their offense, they have enough playmakers so that T.O. wouldn’t be the focal point (unlike if he landed in St. Louis). Not to mention, their locker room isn’t as inexperienced as the Rams’ is and one would think that Chad Ochocinco would nullify anything Owens brought to the table in terms of personality. Carson Palmer wouldn’t stand for being treated like a 2-year-old either.

The Bengals are a decent fit for T.O. – the Rams are not. We’ll see if Cincinnati eventually pulls the trigger on a contract for Owens. My guess is they will.

In other Rams-related news, FOX Sports is reporting that the team is close to signing No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford.

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