Tag: Arizona Wildcats (Page 4 of 4)

      Championship Week Wrap-Up

      March 15, 2009 /

      There are four games left — Duke/FSU, Miss. St./Tenn, Ohio St./Purdue and the Southland final — but just one, the SEC final, has bubble implications. Despite their tournament run, the Mississippi State Bulldogs will have to beat Tennessee to get a berth, and the Volunteers are already in.

      As of this morning, Joe Lunardi says the last four teams in will be Minnesota, Maryland, Creighton and Saint Mary’s. His first four out are Penn St., Arizona, San Diego State and Auburn. His next four out are Florida, New Mexico, UNLV and Tulsa.

      It seems odd to me that he has SDSU out of tournament after the Aztecs finished the season with back-to-back wins against a bubble team (UNLV), a win over an in-the-Dance team (BYU) and a near-miss against another in-the-Dance team (Utah). Sure, SDSU doesn’t have a marquee win, but neither does Saint Mary’s. I guess Lunardi points to the head-to-head matchup (which the Aztecs lost) as the difference. But SDSU is playing better right now, so it depends on how much stock the committee puts in late season versus early season play. Also, SDSU lost to Arizona by 13 (on the road), so that can’t help either.

      It’s also odd to see Creighton back in after being on the “first four out” or “next four out” lists all week. After all, they didn’t do anything to improve their situation after losing by 24 points against Illinois State. SDSU has a tougher schedule (35 vs. 111), a better RPI (35 to 40) and Creighton doesn’t have a single win against a top 25 RPI team. (The Aztecs beat Utah back in January.) Maybe SDSU doesn’t deserve a nod over Saint Mary’s or even Arizona, but they should get in before the Blue Jays do.

      It seems to me that if Mississippi State loses, there are two spots available for five teams: Creighton, Saint Mary’s, SDSU, Arizona and Penn State. If the Bulldogs win, there will just be one spot available for those five teams.

      On the flip side, Lunardi has removed UConn from his top line and replaced the Huskies with the Memphis Tigers, who blew out Tulsa en route to their 987th straight C-USA title. I just don’t know what to make of Memphis. They lost to Syracuse at home, lost to Xavier on a neutral court and had a road loss to Georgetown. They did blow Gonzaga out by 18 in Spokane, and that’s their only really good win. I watched some of the C-USA championship game and they didn’t wow me despite beating Tulsa (#56 RPI) at the FedEx Forum.

      Michigan State and Oklahoma knocked themselves out of contention for a #1 seed with poor performances in the conference tournaments, but Duke can make a case if they can beat Florida State in the ACC tourney. Either way, I think North Carolina, Louisville, Pitt and Memphis will be the #1 seeds and Oklahoma, Duke, Michigan State and UConn will be #2 seeds, just as Lunardi has it. I don’t think there is anyone on his #3 line — Kansas, Missouri, Wake Forest and Villanova — that has a strong argument to be a #2 seed.

      College Basketball, March Madness

      Championship Week Primer: Bubble teams and #1 seeds

      March 9, 2009 /

      Strap ‘em up, kids. Championship Week is upon us!

      Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s square off tonight in the final of the WCC tourney (9 PM ET, and why isn’t this game on national television?), and with the Gaels’ #45 RPI, they could really use a win to guarantee a NCAA tourney berth. The good news is that their leading scorer, Patrick Mills, is back, scoring 12 points in 35 minutes in yesterday’s win over Portland. If Saint Mary’s loses to the ‘Zags, it would put the Gaels squarely on the bubble. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Saint Mary’s as a #10 seed, but I think that assumes that the committee will take Mills’ injury into account. After all, he was out of the lineup for three of the team’s five losses. Lunardi says that the Gaels are safe, but they don’t have a marquee win and are just 2-2 against the RPI top 50, so anything can happen.

      But let’s move on to the “major” conference tournaments that will take place this week. I’m going to tackle these one-by-one in the order of Jeff Sagarin’s conference rankings.

      ACC

      Lunardi projects six ACC teams – UNC, Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, Florida State and Boston College – to make the Dance, and of those teams only BC really has anything to worry about. The Eagles (#57 RPI) are probably safe, but a first round loss on Thursday against Virginia might make BC squirm a bit on Selection Sunday.

      Miami, Maryland and Virginia Tech are three teams that could play themselves into an NCAA berth with a nice ACC tourney run. What do I mean by “a nice run”? Well, Virginia Tech and Miami square off on Thursday, so if whomever wins gives North Carolina a great game on Friday, that might be enough. The Hurricanes are a bit closer than the Hokies, so VT would probably have to pull the upset against the Tar Heels to earn a bid. Miami could potentially get in with an 18-12 record and a #53 RPI (against the 26th-toughest schedule) if they were to lose to North Carolina.

      Meanwhile, Maryland has to beat N.C. State on Thursday and then (at least) pull the upset against the seemingly vulnerable Demon Deacons on Friday.

      As far as #1 seeds go, North Carolina pretty much sewed one up with their second win against Duke on Sunday. Neither the Blue Devils nor Demon Deacons would seem to have a shot at one of the other three #1 seeds. It’s conceivable that Duke would be able to make a case if they win the ACC Tournament (beating Wake and UNC in the process) and a few of the teams ranked ahead of them have poor conference showings. Despite the brutal schedule (#3) and stellar RPI (3), Duke is realistically shooting for a #2 or #3 seed.

      ACC Tournament bracket

      BIG TEN

      It’s funny, because the conventional wisdom is that the Big Ten is down this season, but it is 2nd in Jeff Sagarin’s rankings and Lunardi projects eight Big Ten teams to make the NCAA tournament, the most of any conference. The list includes Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State. Three of those teams – Penn St., Minnesota and Michigan – play in the first round on Thursday and they really need a win (against Indiana, Northwestern and Iowa, respectively) to keep their postseason hopes alive.

      In the next round, Minnesota would need to compete with Michigan State, Michigan with Illinois and Penn State with Purdue to clinch a spot. If any of these teams are blown out in the next round, they’ll be right back on the bubble. With an RPI of 38, the Badgers look to be safe, but a win against Ohio State would seal a bid (and vice versa, if the Buckeyes were to win).

      The only team with a legitimate shot at a #1 seed is Michigan State. The Spartans have the #6 RPI and the 8th-toughest schedule, so if they win the Big Ten tourney, they have a great shot to move up to the top line.

      Big Ten Tournament bracket

      BIG EAST

      The Big East Championship serves as the actual championship for the conference –they don’t recognize a “regular season” champion. It kicks off on Tuesday with the #9-#16 seeds (on BIGEAST.tv) and then on Wednesday the #5-#8 seeds – Marquette, Syracuse, West Virigina and Providence – start play. At 8-10 in conference, Cincinnati is out barring an unlikely four wins in four days scenario. Lunardi currently projects West Virginia as a #7 seed, so they are safe. Likewise, Syracuse (#6 seed) and Marquette (#7 seed) are both safely in.

      So the Big East team that can help itself the most is Providence. Lunardi projects the Friars to miss the cut, and with an 18-12 record and a #70 RPI, it’s easy to see why. However, if Providence can beat the winner of the Cincinnati/DePaul game in convincing fashion and then give Louisville a great game, it might be enough to earn them a bid. After all, the Friars did beat #1 Pitt just two weeks ago. But a near win against Louisville probably won’t be enough; realistically, Providence needs to beat Louisville to secure a berth. That would give the Friars 20 wins and a couple of marquee victories over two of the top teams in the nation.

      On the other end of the spectrum, there are three Big East teams — Louisville, Pitt and UConn — that have a legitimate shot at a #1 seed. In fact, Lunardi projects all three as #1 seeds right now, but it is likely that one or more will fall off as the Big East Championship progresses. The Huskies seem to be on the most tenuous footing, given their two head-to-head losses against Pitt in the last three weeks. If both teams survive, Pitt and UConn are projected to meet on Friday, with the winner having a golden opportunity to clinch a #1 seed by winning the next night as well.

      Big East Championship bracket

      PAC-10

      Lunardi says that four Pac-10 teams – Washington, UCLA, Cal and Arizona St. – are already in, while Arizona is holding on for dear life. In fact, he says that they are the very last team in. The Wildcats don’t have a great RPI (52), but their SOS (#32) works in their favor.

      Arizona is in a tough spot as the #5 seed in the conference tourney because they play a good team (ASU) right off the bat. A win would probably secure a berth, but a loss would probably knock them out. (And you can bet that after living in Arizona’s considerable hoops shadow for years, that the Sun Devils would like nothing more than to be the ones to knock their arch-rival out of the postseason.)

      On the flip side, it’s conceivable that a tournament win would push Washington up to the next line. The Huskies have a strong RPI (13) and have played a tough schedule (#14), so if they can beat UCLA or Cal in the Pac-10 final, they may be rewarded with a #2 seed.

      Pac-10 Tournament bracket

      BIG 12

      Joe Lunardi currently projects six Big 12 teams – Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma St. – to make the NCAA tournament. Those teams are seeded #9 or above, so all six would seem to be safely in. The team that can play its way into the tournament is Kansas State. The Wildcats have a 21-10 record, but their RPI (#76) and schedule (#111) are lacking. After a string of victories that included wins against Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M in late January/early February, the Wildcats have gone 4-3 over their last seven, including losses to Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma St. What’s worse, there isn’t a good win amongst the four in that stretch. They are likely to play Texas on Thursday, and that’s absolutely a must-win game.

      If things break the right way, both Kansas and Oklahoma could play themselves into a #1 seed. It would help if they faced each other in the tourney final, and if they beat good competition on the way there (Oklahoma St., Missouri for OU and Texas for the Jayhawks). With a Big 12 tourney win, I think the Sooners have a great shot at a #1 seed if the committee takes into account their 0-2 record without POY candidate Blake Griffin, who was out with a concussion.

      Big 12 Championship bracket

      SEC

      According to Jeff Sagarin, the Southeastern Conference is a good bit weaker than any of the other five majors, and this makes sense when Lunardi only picks three SEC teams to make the tourney. (That’s one fewer than the Mountain West!) The fact of the matter is that the SEC is much more of a football conference than it is a basketball conference right now.

      LSU and Tennessee are safely in, and Lunardi projects South Carolina to be a #12 seed so the Gamecocks (along with the Gators) are very much on the bubble. South Carolina needs to win its game on Friday (vs. the winner of the Georgia/Miss. St. game) and could seal a bid with a win (or at least a good showing) in a potential matchup with LSU on Saturday. Regardless of whom they play, the Gamecocks would probably get a berth with two wins in the SEC tourney. Likewise, Florida can play themselves into strong consideration with wins against Arkansas and a pretty good Auburn team. Clearly, a third win (over Tennessee?) would put the Gators back in the Big Dance.

      Both LSU and Tennessee are currently projected to be #6 seeds, but a tourney championship for either team could bump the winner up a line or two, especially if the two teams square off in the final.

      SEC Tournament bracket

      College Basketball, March Madness, Television

      What does Arizona have to do to get a bid?

      March 3, 2009 /

      Joe Lunardi projects that the Arizona Wildcats would be the last team in if the season ended today. The Wildcats are 8-8 in conference and 18-11 overall. They have two remaining games — Cal, Stanford — both at home. Like most bubble teams, they have a poor record (2-4) against Top 25-ranked teams, though they are helped by their 2-1 record against Top 25 RPI teams, with wins over Kansas and Washington. They also beat Gonzaga back in December and UCLA to cap a seven-game winning streak.

      So what’s the problem? Well, Arizona has 11 losses, and they’ve dropped their last three games. In their defense, those games were all on the road and two (Washington, Arizona St.) were against ranked opponents. But Washington St. was beatable and Arizona lost by 16.

      A win Thursday night against Cal would probably seal the deal, though a loss against Stanford and a poor showing in the Pac-10 tournament would offset that win. It’s clear that the Wildcats still have some work to do. They need to win at least one of the next two games to stay at or above .500 in conference. If they beat Cal and Stanford, they can probably absorb a first round loss in the Pac-10 tourney. But a win or two in the tourney would obviously help.

      College Basketball, March Madness

      College Football Week 13 Primer

      November 22, 2008 /

      Top 25 vs. Top 25:

      Sam Bradford      No. 2 Texas Tech at No. 5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET ABC
      Raise your hand if you don’t appreciate what the Big 12 has given us this year and I’ll come over and punch you square in the mouth. The Big 12 has handed us game of the year matchups virtually every week this season and this week is no exception. Many college football pundits have had this Saturday circled on their calendars as the day when Texas Tech finally falls. Oklahoma has stumbled only once this year (vs. previously top ranked Texas on October 11), but outside of that no other team has come close to knocking them off. The Sooners have averaged over 50 points a game, but they’ll take on a much-improved Red Raider defense this week in Norman. OU is going to score points, but can they stop Heisman hopefuls Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree? No defense in the nation (not even Texas) has slowed down the dynamic duo yet and it’s hard to believe that anyone will at this point. Still, the Sooners will be looking to avenge last year’s 34-27 loss to Tech in Lubbock. In that game, No. 4 ranked OU lost Sam Bradford early in the first half and allowed Crabtree to haul in 12 passes for 154 yards and one touchdown. Oddsmakers have established Oklahoma as a 7-point favorite, but one has to believe that this is going to go down to the wire.

      No. 14 Brigham Young at No. 7 Utah, 6:00 PM ET
      No love for the Mountain West – this one won’t even be shown on national TV despite huge ramifications for the Utes. A MWC title and a possible BCS at-large bid is on the line in this game as Utah has another opportunity to justify their high ranking. Before being upset by TCU, BYU expected to be where Utah currently is – ranked in the top 10. The Cougars will have to overcome a stingy Utes defense that is damn near impossible to run against, yielding just 3.0 yards per carry. The onus for BYU in this game will be on quarterback Max Hall to carry the offense, while the Cougar defense will have its hands full with Brian Johnson. Considering this will be yet another tightly contested game, the Utes should be prepared. They’ve got five wins this year by seven or fewer points, including their nail biting 13-10 win over TCU three weeks ago. Oddsmakers have made BYU a 6.5-point underdog.

      No. 15 Michigan State at No. 8 Penn State, 3:30 PM ET ABC
      How sad is it that in the same week of Ohio State-Michigan, this is the best matchup in the Big Ten. Penn State’s win over Indiana may have looked like a blowout, but the Lions struggled with Hoosiers in the first half. Truth be told, PSU’s offense hasn’t looked that impressive in weeks. After reaching the end zone 12 times threw the air in their first fives games, the Lions have managed just five touchdown passes in their last six contests. The Spartans struggled in their last Big Ten statement game (a 45-7 drubbing at the hands of Ohio State on October 18), but Brian Hoyer (548 yards, 5 TDs in two games vs. PSU) has really stepped up of late and is putting together a nice season. Of course, all eyes will be on RB Javon Ringer. Ringer is third in the nation in rushing and if MSU’s massive offensive line can open up holes for the small back, Sparty will have an opportunity to keep PSU’s spread offense off the field and possibly walk away with an upset. Penn State is a 14.5-point favorite at home.

      No. 20 Pittsburgh at No. 19 Cincinnati, 7:00 PM ET ESPN2
      The job head coach Brian Kelly (who I suggested should be a candidate to replace Phillip Fulmer at Tennessee) has done this year in Cincinnati despite losing three quarterbacks has been remarkable. To keep the Bearcats afloat in the Big East is outstanding it speaks volumes about Kelly being a true winner. Speaking of the Big East, first place is on the line in this game as Cincy will try to avenge its 24-17 loss to PITT last year by throwing early and often. The Panthers have struggled against teams with like to attack downfield and Tony Pike has played very well lately in Kelly’s offense. The mission is clear for Cincinnati: Win the next two games at home and claim the Big East title. PITT is a 5-point underdog.

      Upset Watch:

      Graham HarrellNo. 2 Texas Tech at No. 5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET ABC
      As previously mentioned, there’s a ton of folks waiting for the Red Raiders to fall this year, but I’ve already bought into the hype. No defense has even remotely slowed down Harrell or Crabtree and while Bradford and the OU offense can go toe to toe with anyone, I say Tech walks away with a straight up upset. Of course, they may need to score 60 points to win.

      Other Notable Games:

      Michigan at No. 10 Ohio State, 12:00 PM ET ABC
      This could be the worst Michigan-Ohio State matchup in the history of this rivalry. If the Buckeyes don’t beat the Wolverines by more than four touchdowns, Jim Tressel should resign. Michigan has never found a way to stop a mobile quarterback, so Terrelle Pryor should find life pretty easy this week at the Horse Shoe.

      Florida State at No. 25 Maryland, 7:45 PM ET
      Does any team want to win the ACC? The Terps have provided some great upsets this season, but they don’t seem to fare well when favored. Still, their rushing attack matches up well against a solid Seminole front seven and this is one of the more underrated matchups of the week.

      No. 21 Oregon State at Arizona, 7:00 PM ET
      The Beavers can still punch a ticket to Pasadena this year, but they’ll need to get past a Wildcat team that gave USC fits a couple weeks ago.

      College Football

      ESPN source says that Lute Olson will resign

      October 23, 2008 /

      A source told Dick Vitale that Arizona coach Lute Olson plans to resign…soon.

      Arizona’s Lute Olson is stepping down as the school’s men’s basketball coach, a source has told ESPN college basketball analyst Dick Vitale.

      Associate coach Mike Dunlap will take over the head coaching duties on an interim basis, the source told Vitale. The timing of Olson’s announcement is uncertain, Vitale reported later Thursday. Vitale reports that the move is imminent.

      Arizona spokesperson Tom Duddleston said Thursday morning that Olson hasn’t informed the administration that he is resigning. Duddleston said he went to his superiors and was told, “no way,” in response to the report.

      “We’re not making any announcement to that effect,” Duddleston said. “At this moment there is nothing going on.”

      Olson returned to the Arizona program after taking a year-long leave of absence, which the school said was not taken for health reasons.

      This is big news if it’s true. I wonder if Brandon Jennings’ decision to play in Europe has anything to do with it.

      College Basketball, Rumors & Gossip

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