Tag: Andrew Bogut (Page 5 of 5)

Luke Ridnour finding a home in Milwaukee

By far the most surprising score from Tuesday’s NBA action is the Bucks 100-98 win over the Spurs in San Antonio. Michael Redd led the Bucks with 25 points and 10 boards, while Andrew Bogut held down the middle with 20 points, 14 rebounds, four assists and three blocked shots. More importantly, he limited Tim Duncan to 7 of 20 shooting from the field, which helped the Bucks spring the upset.

But point guard Luke Ridnour might have been the difference in the game. He posted 21 points (on 9 of 15 shooting), six assists, five rebounds, two blocked shots and a steal, and if he didn’t outplay Tony Parker (19 points, 10 assists), then he sure negated him.

Ridnour joined the Bucks as part of the three-team trade that sent Mo Williams to the Cavs in the offseason. He’s 27, and prior to joining the Bucks, he had spent his entire career in Seattle. At the beginning of the season, new head coach Scott Skiles immediately inserted him into the starting lineup and he has responded with solid play, especially recently.

Take a look at Ridnour’s numbers from November and December:

Nov: 10.6 ppg, 4.9 apg, 38.8% FG%, 0.93 spg
Dec: 11.7 ppg, 6.2 apg, 47.7% FG%, 2.08 spg

That jump in field goal percentage is key. He cut back on the number of three pointers he’s taking (from 2.9 to 1.7) and is taking more open mid-range jumpers created off of pick-and-rolls with Bogut.

For much of November, I thought that Ramon Sessions (who is having a great year in his own right) would soon take over as the starter, but with Ridnour’s December play, I’m not so sure. Skiles is a former point guard, and he has two good, underrated options at the position. The key for Ridnour is to keep up that FG%; everyone knows that he can pass the ball.

Sessions is a free agent after the season, and on a per-minute basis he’s still way ahead of Ridnour in terms of production (PER: 16.48 vs. 13.75). Ridnour has another year on his contract. It will be interesting to see how the team handles these two players. I wouldn’t be surprised if Skiles continues to play Ridnour heavy minutes so that he can keep a lid on Sessions’ league-wide profile until the Bucks can lock him up in a long-term deal at a discount. If that’s the case, he has to be careful not to alienate Sessions so much that a rift is created between the player and the head coach. It’s a bad, bad thing when a point guard and his coach aren’t on the same page.

Correcting ESPN The Mag, Part 1

Regular readers might be familiar with my occasional posts — “Correcting Bill Simmons” and “Correcting Rick Reilly” — where I try to help out my better-paid, less-informed counterparts by pointing out when/where they’re wrong. This time, I’m going to tackle the December 29th, 2008 issue of ESPN The Mag as a whole. I know I’m going to hear some guy at the sports bar regurgitate this “analysis” as his own opinion and I won’t have the wherewithal or the energy to call him on it, so I might as well do it here.

Let’s start with everyone’s favorite blowhard — and I doubt he’d take that as an insult given his commentary stylings — Stephen A. Smith. In his “Up Front” column, he criticizes Oscar De La Hoya for not knowing when to give it up.

Help, someone! Pretty Please!

It would be really nice if someone could muster some plausible explanation as to why a fighter like Oscar De La Hoya, beyond his prime for quite a while before the Manny Pacquiao bout, still chose to step into the ring and get his brains beat out. The mismatch was so obvious that Oscar’s wife, Millie, was screaming for him to quit before he had the common sense to do it himself.

It’s really easy to knock De La Hoya after the match is over when it’s clear that he shouldn’t have fought the fight. But one quick look at the pre-fight odds (-165 Hoya / +135 Pacquiao) reveals that this fight fooled a LOT of people, not just the Golden Boy. According to the betting public, De La Hoya was the clear favorite in the fight, so why would Oscar think that he was about to step into a beatdown? The betting public clearly doesn’t know everything, but it’s a pretty good gauge of public opinion and if the public is fooled, why would De La Hoya — who has an ego of a big-time fighter — know any better?

If Smith writes this column before the fight, I’d give him props. But this is classic kick-’em-while-they’re-down writing.

Let’s move on to Mike & Mike (Golic & Greenberg) who answer “The Big Question” — if the best players in college sports don’t make any noise in the pros, what’s their legacy?

GOLIC: If you think about it, we have two players this year who could end their college days as two of the all-time greats in their sports: Tyler Hansbrough and Tim Tebow. But neither one of them appears to have the type of skills that would make them excel as pros.
GREENY: It’s probably the best illustration we’ll ever see of the difference in athleticism from one level to the next. In college, guys can still dominate even if they’re not athletically superior to the competition. I don’t care how hard you work; if you’re not freakishly gifted physically, you are not going to be a star in the NFL or NBA.

I don’t have any idea if Tim Tebow can make it as a QB in the NFL, so I’ll let Anthony Stalter field that question. As for Tyler Hansbrough, I think he’s going to be a productive power forward at the NBA level. Whether or not he’s going to be a “star” depends on your definition of the word.

Is he going to turn into another Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire? Probably not. But if a team can land a starter in the late lottery, that’s considered a success. I see Hansbrough as a player who will focus on defense and rebounding. In fact, he could be a Dennis Rodman-type who can hit a 15-foot jumper. The Worm had the innate ability to rebound, and while Hansbrough doesn’t quite have his nose for the ball, he does have the work ethic, and then some. If he plays 30 minutes a game, I see him averaging 10 rebounds at a minimum. He has really improved his face up game, so if defenders help off of him, he’ll be able to make them pay. He should be especially productive in the regular season — while his opponents are loafing through three-quarters of the game, he and his non-stop motor will be running around like a kid on a sugar high. Work ethic is something that is often overlooked when it comes to the NBA draft and I think Hansbrough is a guy that has the drive to make himself the best player he can be. Other guys might have higher ceilings, but it doesn’t matter if they don’t have the heart to reach them.

Mike & Mike also discussed the upside/downside of a college football playoff…

Golic: As the bowl season ramps up, I cannot stress enough the need for a college football playoff. March Madness is the best tourney of the year, and a deep run by a Cinderella is one of the best parts of it. In the BCS, teams like Boise State and Utah will never play in the championship game.

Greeny: Cinderellas are all well and good, but they should know their place. The regular season is the one thing college football still gets right. A Cinderella team winning it all in a playoff would put that at risk.

Was the editor drunk on egg nog when he reviewed this? Golic’s point is clear, but what is Greeny talking about? Forget about the fact that he seems to be defending the current system — his response is nonsensical. First, he says that Cinderellas “should know their place.” Huh? An undefeated team like Utah or Boise St. should just shrug their shoulders and admit that they don’t belong because they only beat one ranked team all year? Who’s to say that they don’t have the talent and execution to play with the big boys? What’s worse, Greeny just contradicted his point from the previous topic — that, at the college level, a player can still dominate without being athletically superior to the competition.

He goes on to claim that a Cinderella winning it all in a playoff would put college football’s regular season at risk. I don’t have any idea what this means, so I’m not even going to try to speculate. I will say this — whoever wins a playoff deserves to be the champ, and I don’t see how a team like Utah winning three playoff games against the best competition in the country can hurt college football’s regular season.

Lastly — and this is a relatively minor point but it hits close to home because I am (admittedly) a fan of the Milwaukee Bucks — in the “NBA Insider” section, under the article heading “Contract Killers,” Chris Broussard lists a number of guys that are not living up to the contracts they signed this offseason, beginning with Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand. He goes on to say this…

Chicago locked up Luol Deng for $71 million; he’s scoring 13.9 ppg, Baron Davis got $65M from the Clips; he’s shooting 39%. Andrew Bogut ($60M) and Emeka Okafor ($72M) are checking in below their career scoring averages.

Granted, Luol Deng’s FG% is down (48% last year to 44% this year), Baron Davis is not shooting well (actually 37% now, but he’s a career 41% shooter so no big surprise there) and Okafor’s scoring numbers are down (though his FG% is up 5.5% and his PER is the second highest of his career). But why does Broussard have to bag on Bogut?

Sure, he’s averaging 11.5 ppg, down from 14.3 last season. But, in case Broussard hadn’t noticed, the Bucks added Richard Jefferson (and his 14.4 shots per game), so it’s no surprise to see that Bogut’s attempts are down almost three shots a game. His rebounds (10.7) and FG% (55.3%) are at career-high levels even though he missed three games with a knee injury in late November. And it’s no coincidence that the Bucks lost those three games.

Considering that his deal ($12 million per year) was the most affordable on that list of bad contracts, the guy doesn’t deserve to be listed amongst the other “contract killers.”

2008 NBA Preview: #18 Milwaukee Bucks

Offseason Movement: New GM John Hammond was busy this summer wheeling and dealing. Two starters from last season are gone. The Bucks traded Mo Williams to Cleveland in a three-way deal that brought Luke Ridnour from Seattle/OKC. Williams was more of a scorer, while Ridnour is definitely a pass-first point guard. The team also traded Yi Jianlian (and Bobby Simmons) to the Nets for Richard Jefferson. This move implies that the team is in “win now” mode, which makes sense given the roster.
Keep Your Eye On: Charlie Villanueva
Everyone thought that Charlie V would be one of the first Bucks to go once Hammond took over, but the team dealt Yi instead and they’re expecting V to take over at power forward. In the 31 games he started last season, he averaged 15/8, so if he can play enough defense to make new coach Scott Skiles happy, he could be in for a big year. The Bucks sure need him to break out, and there’s a good bet that he will, especially if he takes the ball to the hole more.
The Big Question: Can Scott Skiles whip this team into shape?
For the last several years, the Bucks have lacked a defensive mindset and toughness. There’s definitely enough talent to compete; a starting five of Ridnour, Michael Redd, Jefferson, Villanueva and Bogut makes for a good young core of skilled offensive players. If Skiles can get them to increase their effort on defense, the team should make a jump in the standings. It’s no sure thing that all the players will buy in; it’s just as likely that the Bucks will be looking at a losing record two months in and Skiles will have a revolt on his hands.
Outlook: Encouraging. The addition of Jefferson is a huge upgrade at small forward, which has been a weak spot for the last two seasons. The loss of Yi is a loss of potential only, as Villanueva should be able to produce better numbers from that position. Assuming good play from Redd and continued growth from Bogut, the Bucks are one of the darkhorses in the East. If Ridnour helps the team meld into a single cohesive unit offensively and Skiles can get them into the middle of the pack defensively, then the Bucks will be in business.

Ric Bucher said something stupid today

So I’m watching SportsCenter this morning and they’re talking about all the NBA happenings, and the SC guy (I forget his name) asked Ric Bucher about the five-year, $72.5 million contract that Andrew Bogut signed.

Bucher makes a good point that it’s probably a big number for Bogut – I estimated his value at $12.0 M – $12.5 M per season – and that the other GMs around the league are likely angry at John Hammond for skewing the pay scale for big men. He mentioned restricted free agents Emeka Okafor and Andris Biedrins as two guys that will probably look at the contract that Bogut signed and think they deserve something similar.

I don’t have a problem with these points as they are completely valid (though neither Okafor or Biedrins have the polished low post game that Bogut has).

The SC guy threw out the name “Jim McIlvaine” (referring to the absurd contract that McIlvaine signed after having accomplished nothing in the league) to which Bucher chuckled, and then replied, “More like Travis Knight.”

Both Knight and McIlvaine are poster boys for overpaid big men in the NBA. McIlvaine made almost $28 million over a career in which he averaged 2.7 points and 3.1 rebounds. For his part, Knight posted 3.4 points and 3.1 rebounds while earning more than $18 million in his career.

Both players were grossly overpaid, but neither player is even in the same league talent-wise as Andrew Bogut, who averaged 9.4 points and 7.0 rebounds as a rookie, 12.3 points and 8.8 rebounds in his sophomore season and 14.3 points and 9.7 rebounds in his third season. Does he deserve a contract that averages $14.5 million a year? Probably not. But does he deserve to be compared to Jim McIlvaine and Travis Knight? Hell no.

Truth be told, the contract is about $2 million per season more than Bogut is worth, but small market teams that haven’t won recently usually have to overpay to keep their stars. Given the 16.3 points and 11.6 rebounds that Bogut averaged after the All-Star break, along with the improvement he’s made in blocking shots (from 0.5 bpg in 2006-07 to 1.7 bpg last season), as a Bucks fan I’m happy they locked him up.

Update (8/8/08): Bogut’s base deal was for five years and $60 million. Hard-to-reach incentives bring the total possible value of the contract up to $72.5 million, so the $12 million per season estimate was right on the money. (Don’t worry, I won’t break my arm patting myself on the back. I know you were worried.)

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