Offseason Movement: New GM John Hammond was busy this summer wheeling and dealing. Two starters from last season are gone. The Bucks traded Mo Williams to Cleveland in a three-way deal that brought Luke Ridnour from Seattle/OKC. Williams was more of a scorer, while Ridnour is definitely a pass-first point guard. The team also traded Yi Jianlian (and Bobby Simmons) to the Nets for Richard Jefferson. This move implies that the team is in “win now” mode, which makes sense given the roster.
Keep Your Eye On: Charlie Villanueva
Everyone thought that Charlie V would be one of the first Bucks to go once Hammond took over, but the team dealt Yi instead and they’re expecting V to take over at power forward. In the 31 games he started last season, he averaged 15/8, so if he can play enough defense to make new coach Scott Skiles happy, he could be in for a big year. The Bucks sure need him to break out, and there’s a good bet that he will, especially if he takes the ball to the hole more.
The Big Question: Can Scott Skiles whip this team into shape?
For the last several years, the Bucks have lacked a defensive mindset and toughness. There’s definitely enough talent to compete; a starting five of Ridnour, Michael Redd, Jefferson, Villanueva and Bogut makes for a good young core of skilled offensive players. If Skiles can get them to increase their effort on defense, the team should make a jump in the standings. It’s no sure thing that all the players will buy in; it’s just as likely that the Bucks will be looking at a losing record two months in and Skiles will have a revolt on his hands.
Outlook: Encouraging. The addition of Jefferson is a huge upgrade at small forward, which has been a weak spot for the last two seasons. The loss of Yi is a loss of potential only, as Villanueva should be able to produce better numbers from that position. Assuming good play from Redd and continued growth from Bogut, the Bucks are one of the darkhorses in the East. If Ridnour helps the team meld into a single cohesive unit offensively and Skiles can get them into the middle of the pack defensively, then the Bucks will be in business.
Tag: 2008 NBA Preview (Page 5 of 7)
Offseason Movement: In what can only be considered as a straight salary cap dump, the Nuggets traded stalwart center Marcus Camby to the Clippers for the right to swap second round picks in 2010. Given Camby’s more-than-reasonable contract (two years, $15.7 million) and defensive prowess, it left a lot of people scratching their heads, especially when the team turned around and signed J.R. Smith to a deal worth $16.5 million over three years.
Keep Your Eye On: J.R. Smith/Linas Kleiza
The team says that whoever plays better defense will get the bulk of the minutes. Both players are offensive-minded and are capable of putting up points in bunches. Smith has the better PER (18.15 compared to Kleiza’s 14.43) and is a year younger (22). The Nuggets are already defensively challenged, and neither guy is going to make anyone forget about Camby’s excellence in that area of the game.
The Big Question: What is the Nuggets plan?
They didn’t trade Allen Iverson, but they did trade Marcus Camby. Are the Nuggets trying to win now or are they building for the future? The Camby trade implies the latter, but the fact that they held on to both Carmelo Anthony (smart) and AI (not smart) indicates that the team is still trying to win with (mostly) the same group as the last few years. Iverson is in the last year of his contract ($21.9 million) so if the Nuggets don’t get off to a good start, expect them to move him before the trade deadline, assuming they can find a trade partner with something of value to offer (like a few expiring contracts and a first round draft pick or two).
Outlook: Confused. The loss of Camby means that the Nuggets are likely to take a step back, which means they are at the bottom of the playoff picture in the West. If they miss the playoffs, Iverson won’t be on the roster next season, so this will be a very interesting year in Denver.
Offseason Movement: The Hawks screwed the pooch when they failed to sign Josh Childress to a long-term deal. They didn’t think he had any leverage since he was a restricted free agent, but he had the cojones to sign a deal with a Greek team instead of signing a one-year tender with the Hawks. Childress is the biggest talent to leave the NBA to play overseas in the prime of the career, and the Hawks will forever be known as the team that let him go. They replaced Childress with…wait for it…Maurice Evans.
Keep Your Eye On: Marvin Williams
Thus far, the former #2 overall pick has been decidedly average – he ranks 29th amongst all small forwards in PER. The good news is that he’s just 22 and entering the final year of his rookie contract. His qualifying offer next year ($7.3 milllion) is big enough that the Hawks could conceivably pass if he doesn’t show substantial improvement this season. The team usually went with Childress at small forward in crunch time, but now those minutes should belong to Williams, and he needs to make he most of them.
The Big Question: Which direction is this team headed?
The Hawks were a surprise playoff team last season and they took the NBA champs to seven games in the first round. But Mike Bibby is a year older (and a year slower) and they lost utility-man Josh Childress. I thought it was a mistake to trade for Bibby, and now he’s in the final year of his contract ($15.2 million), which means he might become a distraction as the season wears on. If they elect to let him play out his deal, the team will have a load of cap room next summer, so it looks like the Hawks could take a step back before taking another step forward.
Outlook: The long-term outlook is bright. The Hawks have Josh Smith (5 years) and Al Horford (4 years) locked up for the foreseeable future. Joe Johnson is under contract for two more years, but the Hawks have enough salary cap flexibility to make a splash in the next year or two for a star free agent. Until then, they’ll have to settle for the chance to fight for a playoff spot in the mediocre East.
Offseason Movement: The team elected not to pursue free agent Baron Davis and struck out on the Elton Brand sweepstakes. They did sign Corey Maggette to a big contract and also acquired Marcus Williams from the Nets for a conditional first round draft pick.
Keep Your Eye On: Monta Ellis, G
With Davis gone, this is Ellis’ team now. His reign got off to an inauspicious beginning when he hurt his ankle while riding a moped around Mississippi and then lied to the team about it. He will have to mature quickly, because the Warriors need a leader, but it’s not clear when Ellis will be able to return to action. For their part, the Warriors have suspended him for 30 games for lying about the injury, but he probably won’t be ready to play by the end of the suspension, so it just amounts to a gigantic fine.
The Big Question: Is Don Nelson the right guy to lead a rebuilding project?
Nelson always seems to have one foot out the door, so it’s unclear if he has the commitment or the patience to coach this team for much longer. They lost a great player in Baron Davis, acquired a good player in Corey Maggette, and will miss Monta Ellis for at least part of the regular season, so all else being equal, it’s more likely than not that the Warriors will take a step back this season. I think that the next time Golden State makes the playoffs, there will be a different coach steering the ship.
Outlook: In Maggette, Biedrins, Stephen Jackson, Al Harringon and Brandan Wright, the team does have a number of talented players, but they lack a star to bring everything together. Ellis is supposed to be that guy, but since he’ll be sidelined for a while, the aforementioned players will have to raise their games for the Warriors to be in the playoff hunt in the talented West.
Offseason Movement: The team traded Ron Artest to the Rockets for forward Donte Greene and a future first round pick. Artest played well for the Kings and rehabbed his image to a certain extent. The Kings essentially traded him for two late first round picks, which isn’t a bad deal. The distraction is gone and the Kings can continue the rebuilding process.
Keep Your Eye On: John Salmons/Francisco Garcia, GF
With Artest in Houston, there are a lot of minutes to be had at small forward. Both players are versatile and can play a little point guard as well. Salmons plays much better in a starting role and is the better slasher, while Garcia is the better shooter and ballhandler. Given his production as a starter, Salmons figures to take over that role, but Garcia will get a lot of minutes off the bench.
The Big Question: Are the Kings good enough to contend for a playoff spot?
Sacramento finished 12 games out of the #8 spot in the West last season and lost Ron Artest. They’re a young team, so collectively they’ll need big progress to overcome that loss of talent and 12 games in the West. This looks like a team that will compete on a nightly basis but will ultimately finish with 30-35 wins in a tough conference.
Outlook: I like what the Kings are doing, but I wonder if giving PG Beno Udrih a big contract (five years, $33 million) was the right thing to do. They must see him as their point guard of the future, but on a PER basis, he was the #30 PG in the league. They are building around Kevin Martin (pictured), and project to have a ton of cap space in the summer of 2010, when they’ll likely look to add a star free agent. In addition to Martin, if another one of their young players (Udrih, Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson, Donte Green, Shelden Williams) can develop into a star, the Kings will be in business in two or three years.
Check out our NBA Preview page for a look at every team. We’ll be posting three previews per business day, which will take us up to the start of the season on Tuesday, October 28th.
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