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      Sunday Evening Quick-Hitters: Reactions from Week 4 in the NFL

      October 3, 2011 /

      Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

      DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

      Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford passes against the Dallas Cowboys in the first half of their NFL football game in Arlington, Texas October 2, 2011. REUTERS/Mike Stone (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

      – There were certainly plenty of people who saw the Lions going down to Dallas and beating a sub par Cowboys team. But did anyone seem them getting down by 24 points and having to rally for the second straight week on the road? This team is legit and I can’t wait to see how they’ll fare in a couple weeks when they play the Packers. The best part about seeing the Lions go 4-0 is that I know Tom “Killer” Kowalski is watching somewhere. Killer had been the Lions beat writer for MLive.com over the last two decades before abruptly passing away in his home before the season started. Him and I worked together at WDFN in Detroit and while he’s greatly missed, there’s no way he’s missing Lions mania right now. They’re finally doing it, Killer…

      – When I previewed Week 4 on Thursday I wrote about how Sunday’s trip to Cincinnati was going to be a good test for the Bills, even though they were playing a 1-2 Bengals team. I wrote that because the Bills were coming off an emotional win against the Patriots and now had to travel to play a team they were expected to beat. I even told my father that this was the day the Bills lose their first game. When they took a 17-3 lead I was ready to eat my words but in a blink of an eye, the Bengals were kicking a game-winning field goal to improve to 2-2 on the season. The Bills are a good young team but they’re not good enough to overlook any opponent.

      – You know, it’s rather amazing. The lockout was supposed to hurt teams with new coaching staffs and yet the 49ers are 3-1 under Jim Harbaugh and could have very easily been 4-0 had they not collapsed against Dallas in Week 2. It’s a long season but what a great job he’s done so far making the transition from Stanford to the pros. When they were down 23-3 today in Philadelphia, the Niners could have easily packed it in. But they didn’t and I think that’s a testament to Harbaugh. What a great day for comebacks and what a great win for San Fran.

      – Cam Newton almost threw for 400 yards again – and against Chicago, no less. I thought he would struggle against the Bears’ Tampa 2 and he did throw a pick-six early in the game. But man-oh-man is he an athletic marvel. At this point I guess I should stop including him in the “Didn’t See that Coming” section, but I continue to be amazed at what this kid can do so early in his career.

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      External Sports, NFL

      Fade Material: 2011 NFL Week 4 Predictions

      October 2, 2011 /
      Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton passes on the sidelines as the Panthers play the Green Bay Packers in an NFL football game in Charlotte, North Carolina on September 18, 2011. UPI/Nell Redmond .

      Two weeks ago I was a flaming pile of horse dung. Last week, I went 3-1 as the Raiders, Seahawks and Bears/Packers under all hit. My lone loss was the Patriots, who choked away a 21-0 lead in Buffalo.

      What does all this mean? I’m ready for my first 4-0 Sunday! Or, more than likely, another 0-4 day. Either way it’ll be fun…

      Lions @ Cowboys, 1:00PM ET
      Something’s fishy about this line. The public is all over the 3-0 Lions, especially with how poorly the Cowboys played on Monday night in a win over the Redskins. Yet Detroit goes from +1 to +2.5 the night before the game? Give me the Cowboys, who are 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games. (The home team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.)
      THE PICK: COWBOYS –2.5

      Panthers @ Bears, 1:00PM ET
      Cam Newton has been a big-time surprise so far but I think the Bears’ Tampa 2 will give him problems today in Chicago. That defense is designed to take away the big play, which has been a staple of Newton’s game early on. The Bears have always played better at home and I like the fact that the spread is below the key number of 7. The Bears are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite, while the Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last four road games.
      THE PICK: BEARS –6.5

      Giants @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
      Eli Manning and the Giants looked fantastic against the Eagles last Sunday in Philadelphia, so it’s only natural that he and New York will struggle against a 1-2 Cardinals team today. This is another spread that doesn’t make much sense. The Giants opened as a 3-point favorite and despite a public backing, it’s dropped to New York –1. Kevin Kolb is familiar with the Giants’ defense from his days in Philadelphia and I think that experience will play out today in an outright Arizona victory.
      THE PICK: CARDINALS +1

      Broncos @ Packers, 4:15PM ET
      I don’t like this spread either. The Broncos are vastly inferior to the Packers and yet the line continues to drop. The spread opened at Green Bay –13.5 and is now down to 12. Who on earth is taking Denver in this matchup? Better yet, who is betting against Green Bay? The line movement doesn’t make sense and when that happens, I like going against the grain. A week after winning an emotional back-and-forth battle against the Saints, the Packers found themselves down 10-0 to the Panthers and didn’t cover. Now they’re coming off a physical road win against a divisional opponent (the Bears) and face a non-conference team that’s 1-2. I think this one stays within 10 points.
      THE PICK: BRONCOS +12

      Last Week: 3-1
      Season: 5-7

      Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a complete list of NFL Week 4 odds.

      External Sports, NFL

      Ohio State redefines offensive ineptitude in loss to Michigan State

      October 1, 2011 /
      Ohio State head coach Luke Fickell (C) runs onto the field prior to their NCAA football game against the University of Akron in Columbus, Ohio September 3, 2011. REUTERS/Matt Sullivan (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

      So, about that Ohio State offense. Woof.

      The Buckeyes put on a performance for the ages, today against Michigan State. That is, if their ages were 8 or 9. They gained 178 yards in a 10-7 loss to the Spartans, 95 of it coming on their last two drives. The final drive covered 62 yards and ended in a touchdown pass by Joe Bauserman with 10 seconds remaining. Something to build on, I suppose.

      But for the majority of the game, the Buckeyes were something worse than atrocious on offense, as true freshman Braxton Miller showed us all what it looks like when a true freshman with limited offensive weaponry around him plays against a legit Big Ten defense. That sight, but the way, is not pretty.

      A week ago I wrote that Miller was the Buckeyes answer at quarterback, even though he struggled passing the football. Today he may have proven me wrong. I’m sure Miller, who is supremely talented (or so I hear), will one day be the man for the Buckeyes, and not out of necessity. But with DeVier Posey and Dan Herron coming back next week, it might be a better idea to just go with Bauserman and play boring, classic Big Ten offense. This is not to be confused with the so boring it’s kind of exciting offense that was on display today.

      And before you get into the “Michigan State is top-ranked defense” argument, stop. The Spartans numbers are inflated by playing cupcakes and a Notre Dame team that was less interested in moving the ball and more interested in not letting Tommy Rees do Tommy Rees-type things in the second half. Even then, the Irish moved the ball up and down the field without a lot of interference at times.

      The point is, this is not the best defense Ohio State is going to see this year, and yes things are going to get better when players return from suspension, but with who the Buckeyes have under center, it’s tough to even see it getting to “watchable.”

      The defense is still solid, but it’s not as good as it has been, so I don’t see it being able to pull out games against better foes. It’s going to be a long season in Columbus.

      College Football, External Sports, News

      Russell Wilson can vault to top of Heisman lists tonight

      October 1, 2011 /

      Russell Wilson is not unknown to Heisman voters. Three (I, II, III) of the major “Heisman Watch” lists have him in, or around, the top five.

      That’s probably a good spot for the Wisconsin quarterback, who has been great early on, but against suspect competition.

      Through four games, Wilson — who spent his first three seasons at NC State before taking advantage of the NCAA’s graduate-level transfer rule — has completed 75.8% of his passes for 1,136 yards and 11 touchdowns, while throwing just one interception. He’s leading a Wisconsin offense that’s sixth in the nation scoring 48.5 points per game, and he’s done this while the Badgers have taken their foot off the gas pedal late in games thanks to huge leads.

      Tonight, Wilson and Wisconsin play Nebraska in their Big Ten opener, and with a great performance, Wilson could find himself near, if not at the top of those lists. Nebraska is a big-time, storied program that has long been known for its defensive prowess. Even if the Huskers finish the season around where they are in scoring defense (46th at 22 points per game), putting up big numbers against them is going to cause voters’ eyes to light up.

      It’s also the weekend’s showcase game, as it will be on ABC at 8 p.m. (EST). If Alabama does to Florida what I’m expecting it to, most of the country’s eyes will be on this game and this game alone. That’s the perfect storm for Wilson’s Heisman campaign. Of course it could also work against him. If Wilson has a bad game in a loss, it will be remembered by voters into December. If his running back Montee Ball goes nuts — which he is certainly capable of — voters might question the importance Wilson to the Badgers.

      That’s not going to happen, though. Expect Wilson to be let loose, both through the air and with his feet, and expect to wake up Sunday hearing his name mentioned with “Heisman frontrunner” attached to it.

      College Football, External Sports

      Fade Material: College Football Week 5 Predictions

      October 1, 2011 /
      Alabama Crimson Tide head football coach Nick Saban runs onto the field before their NCAA football game with the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, North Carolina September 18, 2010. REUTERS/Jim R. Bounds (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

      After a strong start I’m heading right downhill, which is good considering I’ve named this column “Fade Material.” After all, I don’t want to be made out to be a liar.

      Arizona, Vanderbilt and Arkansas were all losers last week while Clemson was my only winner. That put me at 1-3 for the week and 9-6-1 on the season, which isn’t bad although I’m only 3-5 in the past two weeks. Let’s see if I can’t put together my first 4-0 or 0-4 Saturday…

      Georgia Tech @ NC State, 3:30PM ET
      The Wolfpack have looked horrible at times this season, but if they could just cut down on the turnovers they could stop sabotaging themselves. The underdog is 6-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings between these two teams and I’m a sucker for home dogs. Georgia Tech is 4-0 on the year and has covered in every game thus far, but the Jackets are due to suffer a scare.
      THE PICK: NC STATE +10

      Texas @ Iowa State, 7:00PM ET
      The Cyclones don’t blow you away statistically but this is a decent Iowa State team this year. Not only are they 3-0 thus far, but they also covered the spread outright as underdogs to Iowa and Connecticut the last two weeks. Can they make it three wins in a row as a dog? I’m doubtful, but I like them to cover the spread against a Texas team that’s 0-5 in its last five conference games.
      THE PICK: IOWA STATE +9

      Alabama @ Florida, 8:00PM ET
      The game of the week is in the SEC as the Gators host the Crimson Tide in the “Swamp.” In 58 games as head coach at Alabama, Nick Saban has allowed less than 300 yards of total offense 33 times and the Tide have held opponents to 10 points or less 26 times during that span. Florida has been explosive offensively at times this year but I think Alabama’s defense puts the clamps down in the second half. The Crimson Tide are 7-1-1 against the number in their last nine games against the Gators and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
      THE PICK: ALABAMA –4

      Notre Dame @ Purdue, 8:00PM
      The underdog is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams while the Irish are 1-5 against the number in their last six games as a road favorite. Meanwhile, Purdue is 3-1-1 against the spread in its last five games as a home dog and 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or greater. The games between these two teams tend to be tight, so I like the Boilermakers to keep the score within 10 points.
      THE PICK: PURDUE +11.5

      Last Week: 1-3
      Season: 9-6-1

      Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

      College Football, External Sports

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