Fade Material: 2011 NFL Week 4 Predictions

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton passes on the sidelines as the Panthers play the Green Bay Packers in an NFL football game in Charlotte, North Carolina on September 18, 2011. UPI/Nell Redmond .

Two weeks ago I was a flaming pile of horse dung. Last week, I went 3-1 as the Raiders, Seahawks and Bears/Packers under all hit. My lone loss was the Patriots, who choked away a 21-0 lead in Buffalo.

What does all this mean? I’m ready for my first 4-0 Sunday! Or, more than likely, another 0-4 day. Either way it’ll be fun…

Lions @ Cowboys, 1:00PM ET
Something’s fishy about this line. The public is all over the 3-0 Lions, especially with how poorly the Cowboys played on Monday night in a win over the Redskins. Yet Detroit goes from +1 to +2.5 the night before the game? Give me the Cowboys, who are 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games. (The home team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.)

Panthers @ Bears, 1:00PM ET
Cam Newton has been a big-time surprise so far but I think the Bears’ Tampa 2 will give him problems today in Chicago. That defense is designed to take away the big play, which has been a staple of Newton’s game early on. The Bears have always played better at home and I like the fact that the spread is below the key number of 7. The Bears are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite, while the Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last four road games.

Giants @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
Eli Manning and the Giants looked fantastic against the Eagles last Sunday in Philadelphia, so it’s only natural that he and New York will struggle against a 1-2 Cardinals team today. This is another spread that doesn’t make much sense. The Giants opened as a 3-point favorite and despite a public backing, it’s dropped to New York –1. Kevin Kolb is familiar with the Giants’ defense from his days in Philadelphia and I think that experience will play out today in an outright Arizona victory.

Broncos @ Packers, 4:15PM ET
I don’t like this spread either. The Broncos are vastly inferior to the Packers and yet the line continues to drop. The spread opened at Green Bay –13.5 and is now down to 12. Who on earth is taking Denver in this matchup? Better yet, who is betting against Green Bay? The line movement doesn’t make sense and when that happens, I like going against the grain. A week after winning an emotional back-and-forth battle against the Saints, the Packers found themselves down 10-0 to the Panthers and didn’t cover. Now they’re coming off a physical road win against a divisional opponent (the Bears) and face a non-conference team that’s 1-2. I think this one stays within 10 points.

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 5-7

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a complete list of NFL Week 4 odds.

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