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      Michael Turner may not be consistent, but at least he’s predictable

      November 5, 2008 /

      I’ve been beating this drum on our weekly fantasy football podcasts, but Michael Turner doesn’t run well against teams with good (or even mediocre) run defenses. That may seem intuitive, but he really doesn’t run well against good run defenses. Take a look at his first eight games. (The opposing team’s rank in average rush yards per game is in parenthesis.)

      Week 1 – DET (31st): 220 yards, 2 TD
      Week 2 – TB (13th): 42 yards
      Week 3 – KC (32nd): 104 yards, 3 TD
      Week 4 – CAR (14th): 56 yards
      Week 5 – GB (27th): 121 yards, TD
      Week 6 – CHI (6th): 54 yards
      Week 8 – PHI (8th): 58 yards
      Week 9 – OAK (30th): 139 yards

      So against the Lions, Chiefs, Packers and Raiders (average rank: 30th), Turner posted an average of 146 yards rushing (5.7 ypc) and 1.5 TD. Against the Bucs, Panthers, Bears and Eagles (average rank: 10th), he rushed for an average of 53 yards (2.8 ypc) and zero TD. (Home versus away doesn’t seem to be much of a factor because he has had big games on the road – GB and OAK – as well as at home.)

      What does this mean going forward? Well, here is Turner’s upcoming schedule:

      Week 10 – NO (18th)
      Week 11 – DEN (26th)
      Week 12 – CAR (14th)
      Week 13 – @ SD (16th)
      Week 14 – @ NO (18th)
      Week 15 – TB (13th)
      Week 16 – @ MIN (2nd)
      Week 17 – STL (29th)

      Turner has a great matchup in Week 11 against the Broncos, but that enticing matchup against the Rams in Week 17 doesn’t really help most fantasy owners since the playoffs generally wrap up in Week 16. The Panthers and Bucs have already proven they can shut him down, while the Minnesota matchup in Week 16 is especially worrisome assuming the Vikings don’t lose their stud defensive tackles to suspension. That leaves two games against the Saints and one game against the Chargers, two teams that are mediocre against the run. And Turner hasn’t done particularly well against mediocre run defenses.

      I just traded Turner away in one league because I’m not optimistic about his chances over the second half of the season. I packaged him with Larry Fitzgerald and Kellen Winslow for Marion Barber (whom I believe will get back on track once Tony Romo is back under center), Donald Driver and Antonio Gates. I feel like I’m getting an upgrade at RB and TE for a downgrade at WR. Since I also have Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe, Wes Welker and DeSean Jackson at wideout, I feel like I can afford to lose Fitzgerald.

      Depending on your league’s trade deadline, you may want to think about selling high on Turner as well. He might post good numbers this week against the Saints and he’ll probably run wild against the Broncos in Week 11, so I think he’ll have his highest value after that game. Of course, that won’t help you if your trade deadline is before then.

      Fantasy Football, NFL

      Tis the Season for Scott Boras

      November 5, 2008 /

      BorasWith clients Mark Texiera, Manny Ramirez, and Derek Lowe entering contract renegotiations during the offseason, agent Scott Boras is busier now than ever. The Los Angeles Times recently interviewed Boras about his humble beginnings and his 70-plus employee company, Boras Corp.:

      Boras said his company has negotiated about $4 billion in contracts. He represents more than 70 major league players and another 70 minor leaguers, who are well taken care of. The Boras Corp. employs two psychologists and a conditioning coach who runs the Boras Sports Fitness Institute. The company has a marketing and personal management division.

      Boras said his company has never had outside investors.

      “You can’t have bills because your interest has to solely be on the athlete,” he said. “In the corporate world, a lot of agents have demands on them from the board. They have to make revenue. My attitude is that whatever you do in this business, whatever you own, whatever you have has to be paid for. That way when you’re negotiating, you’re negotiating strictly for the client, not for the need for money.”

      But it also meant, Boras said, that he lost money in his first 10 years in the business.

      Boras was the second-oldest of four children who grew up in a modest household in Elk Grove, south of Sacramento.
      He said he used to wake up between 4:30 and 5 a.m. every morning to work on the family farm. Until his chores were done, he said, he couldn’t play baseball.

      He earned a scholarship to the University of the Pacific and was a minor league outfielder and infielder in the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs systems.

      He went to law school when his career was cut short by knee injuries and did medical malpractice work in Chicago. He started representing some of his former teammates and became a full-time agent in 1985.

      Boras has been credited — and vilified — for his role in landing record contracts for major league and amateur players.

      Boras has proved that being a big-name agent can be just as valuable as being a big-name athlete. And in baseball circles, Boras has become a household name. After he negotiated Alex Rodriguez’s 10-year, $252-million deal in 2000, he became the agent of choice for many blue chip ball players. Still, team owners and general managers constantly approach Boras with caution. He negotiated huge contracts for players that turned out to be huge busts (Andruw Jones, Barry Zito) and he’s convinced players to spontaneously abandon current contracts on a whim when a better opportunity presents itself (J.D. Drew).

      The next few months are going to huge for the Boras Corp. Despite our decaying economy, Boras will remind us all why Manny being Manny is profitable anywhere.

      General Sports, March Madness, MLB

      Yao miserable in Rockets’ loss to Celtics

      November 5, 2008 /

      Check out this line from Yao Ming from last night’s 103-99 loss to Boston: 4-14 from the field, eight points, seven rebounds, zero blocks and zero assists.

      Ron Artest shot 3-16 from the field, but finished with 15 points since he got to the line nine times. (Yao didn’t attempt a free throw.) So between the two of them, they shot 7-30 from the field. Ouch. Is Boston’s defense that good or did these two guys just have a bad night?

      It’s probably a little bit of both.

      Still, the Rockets have to be somewhat encouraged that they lost to the defending champs by only four points even though two of their three best players shot a combined 23% from the floor. Houston looks like a legitimate contender in the West, though their fortunes depend so much on the sustained health of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA

      Is Wade Phillips the problem in Dallas?

      November 5, 2008 /

      Jean-Jacques Taylor of the Dallas Morning News writes that Wade Phillips and Jerry Jones have destroyed the team Bill Parcells built.

      Wade PhillipsParcells had the power to get rid of players, no questions asked. Phillips doesn’t, so he’ll never have the same level of respect from the players. Why do you think Greg Ellis talked to Jerry Jones about his role in the defense?

      He wouldn’t have done that with Parcells here because he knew it wouldn’t have mattered. Why do you think T.O. regularly shows up late to morning meetings? He knows there’s no real consequence.
      The players know Phillips doesn’t have the ultimate authority, so they don’t fear him. That, my friends, leads to a culture of losing.

      But the biggest reason the culture Parcells created is gone is that no one is here to reinforce it.
      When Parcells left, he took VP of college and pro scouting Jeff Ireland with him. He took Tony Sparano and three core defensive coaches as well. Yes, Jason Garrett is still here, but he’s not a Parcells’ guy. He’s a Norv Turner guy.

      That means everyone with ties to Parcells, who respected the previous culture and could maintain the same type of environment is gone.

      That’s why the environment has changed – and it’s not coming back. This team is in the midst of a free fall. Do you have confidence anyone in the organization can stop the plummet?
      I didn’t think so.

      This team has also lost its edge under Wade Phillips.

      Funny how just a year ago the media and Cowboy players were lauding Phillips for being such a “player-friendly” coach and how it was so nice not to walk on eggshells with Parcells gone. How quickly the mood changes when a team starts losing.

      NFL

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