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How well is my bracket doing?

In honor of “drebola,” who said the following over on Reddit…

I love Paulsen’s analyses, but in practice they’re actually useless. I replicated his bracket for one of my pools and it faillled. (Notice you don’t see any coverage of “how well is my bracket doing” on his site… or do you? I don’t know, I don’t see it.)

Particularly because he relies a lot on Sagarin ratings. I keep meaning to come up with a figure for how well Sagarin ratings performed so far in this tournament but haven’t gotten around to coming up with a solid methodology.

…I am going to provide some coverage of how well my bracket is doing. (I thought I did this in my Sweet Sixteen preview intro and in Part III of my March Madness diary, but I’ll summarize here for anyone who thinks I’m dodging my past.)

The first round was rough, and I only got 22 of 32 games correct (but my worst loss was an Elite Eight team, so it’s not like it killed my bracket). Of those 10 losses, six were by four points or less; Ohio State, Utah State, Clemson, Illinois, Butler and Florida State lost by an average of 2.7 points, so these are games that could have gone either way. Conversely, I only won two games — UCLA and Oklahoma State — by four points or less.

West Virginia lost by eight, but the game was close the whole way, and even Utah kept its game close deep into the second half before giving up a late run that made the score look worse than it actually was. There were two bad picks — BYU and Wake Forest, and I’m betting a lot of people got that the last one wrong. They were the #1-ranked team at one point this season — who’s expecting them to lose to Cleveland State?

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2009 MLB Preview: #14 Minnesota Twins

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Offseason Movement: The Twins were rather quiet this offseason, but they did sign free agent third basemen Joe Crede (formally of the White Sox) and pitcher Luis Ayala, who could contribute as a setup man this season.

Top Prospect: Aaron Hicks, OF
The Twins selected Hicks with the 14th overall pick in the 2008 draft in hopes he could become the next Torii Hunter. Hicks is a switch-hitter, with above average power and has demonstrated excellent bat speed. He could turn out to be a five-tool player, but it’ll be a couple years before we see him in the big leagues because he’s only 19. Believe it or not, many teams preferred him as a pitcher in last year’s draft; that’s how good of an athlete Hicks is.

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Ty Lawson toe injury update (3/24)

From UNC Basketball, a quote from UNC assistant coach, Joe Holladay, commenting on North Carolina’s practice on Monday.

“I saw him today. We didn’t do a whole lot today, but we put up a lot of shots. He participated in everything we did [in practice today]. He’s sore, but he always moves around like an old man … He’s moving around a little cautiously and is able to shoot the basketball, which is a good sign because there for a week he couldn’t even come up on his toe to shoot. So I think he is doing as well as can be expected.”

It’s a good sign (for Tar Heel fans) that he was able to shoot after hearing a “popping” sound in his toe against LSU on Saturday.

Browns declare open competition at quarterback

Browns’ new head coach Eric Mangini has declared an open competition at quarterback between Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson.

“I talked to both of them about that and was very clear,” Mangini said. “I said if they have any questions they can come and see me. In terms of the competition and their opportunities. That’s what I told them. They understand that.”

Mangini said after reviewing tapes of both players, holding conversations with them and talking to others, he is “excited” about the prospect of having both compete for the job.

“Without knowing exactly what they were being asked to do on each of the plays, I thought both seemed to have a good presence, a good command of the situation. They each do different things in the passing game and running game that I like,” he said.

Mangini said he will determine later how to divide QB repetitions in offseason practices, the minicamps and then in training camp. He said with the Jets he alternated QBs by the practice period, by the day, even by the interception. He said there is merit in mixing up the opportunities.

The coach said there is no timetable in determining his starter.

As usual, Mangini didn’t rule out trading a quarterback before the competition actually plays out on the field.

“What I haven’t ruled out is George (Kokinis, GM) and I looking at any opportunity to improve the team,” he said. “But I in no way am saying that is specific to the quarterback situation. But we would look at any opportunity we thought would improve the team.”

This isn’t a bad idea by Mangini because if neither is traded this offseason, it’s always good to drum up some competition for training camp, no matter what position it is. Anderson was a stud two years ago and Quinn showed flashes of potential before getting hurt last season. So make one of them earn a starting gig this season. (Assuming one of them doesn’t get traded, that is.)

2009 MLB Preview: #15 Oakland A’s

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Offseason Movement: In one of the biggest trades this offseason, the Rockies’ dealt outfielder Matt Holliday to the A’s in exchange for Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street and Greg Smith. Oakland also brought back Jason Giambi, who played for the A’s earlier in his career, and signed free agent Orlando Cabrera.

Top Prospect: Trevor Cahill, RHP
Some would say that LHP Brett Anderson deserves mention here, but his ceiling isn’t as high as Cahill’s and he suffered a forearm injury in spring training, which probably cost him a roster spot this year. Cahill has a chance of landing in the starting rotation now that Anderson and Gio Gonzalez have been sidetracked by injuries. He has the potential to be a future ace and even if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster this season, he could be called up at the All-Star break if the A’s our out of contention.

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