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2009 College Football Picks & Predictions: Week 4

Here are my picks for Week 4 in college football.

Last week I went 3-1 straight up and just 1-3 against the spread, so gamblers – fade at will. (By the way, those are also my season totals because I didn’t make picks for the first two weeks, although I probably would have gone 8-0 so feel free to give me the undeserved credit.)

Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
Arkansas certainly has an offense capable of hanging with most opponents given the vertical weapons they have in Greg Childs, Jarius Wright and Joe Adams in the passing game. But ‘Bama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart should throw a variety of looks at Razorback signal caller Ryan Mallett and use blitzes to help generate a rush. The Tide lack a pass-rushing presence on their defensive line, but their secondary is experienced and should handle whatever Bobby Petrino throws at them on Saturday. I expect ‘Bama to take away Michael Smith, Broderick Green, Ronnie Wingo and the Arkansas’ running game and force the Razorbacks to become one-dimensional. With Julio Jones expected back this week after missing last Saturday with a knee injury, the Razorback defense could be in trouble. ‘Bama will look to take control of this game in the second half with a balanced offensive approach and pull away in the fourth quarter.
Odds: Alabama –17.5.
Prediction: Alabama 41, Arkansas 20.

No. 9 Miami at No. 11 Virginia Tech, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
The Canes are quickly becoming one of the more talked about programs in the nation this year courtesy of quarterback Jacory Harris. Thanks to an improved pass protection and his ability to see the entire field, Harris played exceptionally well in Miami’s wins over ranked opponents Florida State and Georgia Tech, respectively. But the key to a Canes’ victory will be running the ball to set up Harris and the passing game. Frank Beamer’s squad has not done a good job of stopping the run so far this season and if Miami can get versatile running backs Javarris James and Graig Cooper some running room early on, they might set up Harris to make big plays in the passing game. Defensively, Miami could be burned by Tyrod Taylor’s running ability if it doesn’t stay disciplined when shooting gaps. Taylor, who has been more patient as a passer this season, needs to use his legs if he sees that the Canes are too aggressive up front. Miami must also contain running back Ryan Williams, who has been excellent filling in for the injured Darren Evans. While Blacksburg is one of the toughest places to play in college football, Randy Shannon has his team playing with a swagger and they won’t be intimated on the road. This is going to be a thrilling game and one that might come down to the wire. I’m going with the hot team, however, and predict a win for Miami.
Odds: Miami –2.5.
Prediction: Miami 24, Virginia Tech 20.

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Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 3

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, usually one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s take a look at how they performed:

#1 Falcons: 1 SK + 1 FR + 1 INT = 3 fantasy points
#2 Redskins: 7 PA (6) + 1 SK + 1 FR = 8 fp
#3 Broncos: 6 PA (8) + 4 SK + 1 INT + 2 FR = 15 fp

So far, my #1 pick is averaging 3.5 fantasy points (not good), my #2 pick is averaging 11.0 points (very good) and my bonus pick is averaging 10.0 points (very good). The overall average is 8.2 fantasy points.

Here are this week’s recommendations. All teams are available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues. If the Packers are available in your league, I’d start them (against the Rams) before any of these teams this week.

Pick #1: Broncos (@ OAK)
Through the first two weeks, the Broncos own the #2 fantasy defense. Is this going to last? Probably not. But after two great matchups with the Bengals and Browns, the Broncos get another potentially good matchup with the Oakland Raiders.

Pick #2: Redskins (@ DET)
Washington’s defense is solid, yet unspectacular. In the last three seasons, the Redskins have finished no higher than 19th in fantasy defense. But last week they held the Rams to just seven points, and this week they get a tasty matchup with the Detroit Lions.

Bonus Pick: Cowboys (vs. CAR)
Believe it or not, the Cowboys have failed to register a sack or create a turnover through two games. But with Jake Delhomme coming to town, that should change. I’d expect the Cowboys defense will be fired up and ready to play after a tough loss against the Giants last week. Wade Phillips is a good defensive coach, so he should be able to turn things around.

Oregon coach refunds fan’s travel expenses after loss to Boise

Following Oregon’s embarrassing loss to Boise State on the opening night of the college football season, a Ducks fan was so upset about what he saw from his team’s performance that he e-mail head coach Chip Kelly asking for a refund.

And he got one.

From ESPN.com:

According to the Web site, Kelly replied to Seminary’s e-mail with a question: “What is your address?”

Sure enough, a check for $439, apparently signed by Kelly, arrived in Seminary’s mailbox, according to the Web site. Seminary was so impressed by the gesture, he returned the check to Kelly with a thank-you note, rather than cashing it.

“As a sales guy, it’s really hard to shut me up,” Seminary said, according to the Web site. “When I received that check, I was literally speechless.

“I think of Coach Kelly as a totally different person now,” Seminary said, according to the Web site. “I have a different bond with him now. … Let’s just say he lost every game as an Oregon coach. You would never hear me calling for his head. It just wouldn’t happen. The guy showed an incredible amount of class.”

I wonder what kind of storm Kelly just created for himself after this incident. Now every team he losses, he’s going to have thousands of fans e-mailing him asking for a refund.

Nevertheless, this was a cool gesture by Kelly, who was incredibly upset by the way his team performed in Boise and the actions by running back LeGarrette Blount following the game in which he punched a Broncos player. I think a lot of people will agree with Seminary’s sediments to Kelly and root for him in the future.

That said, he still has to win.

Yankees clinch, back in playoffs

Alex Rodriguez homered and hit a go-ahead sacrifice fly in the Yankees’ 6-5 victory over the Angels Tuesday night as New York became the first team to clinch a postseason berth in baseball.

New York clinched the first phase of its postseason plans while still on the field, the berth finalized by the Athletics’ 9-1 victory over the Rangers while Jorge Posada was batting in the eighth inning. But that gave the Yankees little cause to rejoice — not after they gave back all five runs to the pesky Angels.

Facing Matt Palmer in the ninth inning, Gardner opened the frame with a line-drive single to center and waited out the right-hander, who threw to first base repeatedly to check the speedster. Gardner took second base on the 1-0 delivery, and Derek Jeter walked.

The playoff entry was acknowledged after the game with hugs and handshakes, but no wild celebrations — a tact that was encouraged by the Yankees’ team leaders. Those will be reserved for a potential division clinch in the near future, when next chapter of the club’s season truly begins.

Not to be a downer, but the Yankees have done this before. It’s the next step that has eluded them.

It’s time for CC Sabathia and A-Rod to step up in the postseason just once in their careers. This is a club that routinely looks past the first round and routinely finds themselves out of the playoffs too early. The Yankees need the players they spent millions on in the offseason to produce or else this playoff berth means nothing.

The Yankees are built to win championships so anything less should be a disappointment. (Especially considering their payroll.)

Pluto: Cavs will do everything within their power to help West

Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer wrote an interesting article on troubled Cavs’ guard Delonte West, who was arrested on weapons charges last week in Maryland. West was carrying three guns (including a shotgun concealed in a guitar case) while riding a motorcycle.

West may or may not face some jail time, depending upon how the legal system views his case.

The Cavaliers will do everything within their power to help West, who has admitted to a history of depression and a bipolar mood disorder. With the blessing of the team, West missed 10 days of training camp last season when he went into a treatment center for his mental illness. The primary concern for Cavs owner Dan Gilbert, General Manager Danny Ferry and coach Mike Brown is to work with West and his doctors, creating the best environment for the 26-year-old guard to handle his emotions.

What the Cavs don’t know is how many games he can play, or if he can quickly get a grip on his emotional state. They don’t know if he will have another setback, or how he will react to his arrest and legal issues.
The image of West on a Can-am Spyder motorcycle with shotgun stashed in a guitar case slung over his back — and a Beretta 9 mm in the waist band of his pants along with a Ruger 357 Magnum strapped to his leg — is scary to anyone who cares about him.

He was carrying all that firepower for protection, West’s father told the Washington Post. But it’s never wise for someone who is emotionally troubled to be so heavily armed.

By the sounds of things, this wasn’t just another troubled athlete without the brain capacity to realize that he shouldn’t be carrying a small arsenal on him. West has real issues and he needs real help.

Hopefully the Cavs or whomever can provide him with that help and he can get a hold of his life.

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