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Pick up Sammy Morris!

I did mention this (our Twitter feed — scroll down) last week, but…

With the news that Fred Taylor is going to undergo surgery, the crowded New England backfield suddenly becomes less crowded. In the first four games, Taylor accounted for 36% of the team’s touches (45 carries/124 total RB touches).

If there was some question how this work would be divvied up amongst Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and Laurence Maroney prior to Week 5, there shouldn’t be any further confusion. Against the Broncos, Morris had 19 touches for 107 yards, including two catches for 39 yards. Faulk had seven touches for eight yards, while Maroney had five carries for 21 yards. In the first four games, Faulk averaged 6.8 touches, while Maroney averaged 8.8 touches. (It’s important to note that Maroney had 12 touches in Week 1, a game that Morris missed because of injury. Since then, he has averaged just 7.7 touches per game.)

For his part, Morris averaged 7.3 touches in Weeks 2-4, working himself back from injury, so in Week 5, he essentially received all of Taylor’s workload. This makes sense, since the two are pretty similar players. Both are hard-nosed runners that thrive between the tackles, though Morris is better at catching the ball out of the backfield. And he has always been a Belichick favorite because he’s willing to do whatever it takes to help the Patriots win. For the foreseeable future, that job will entail being the Patriots’ RB1.

Is there a chance that the Pats go with the hot hand? Sure, but Faulk is nothing more than a fine third-down back, and probably won’t get the chance to get hot on first and second down. As for Maroney, I realize that he’s just 24, but is there anything in his recent past that would indicate that he’s capable of carrying a big workload for any length of time? It might not be a bad idea to handcuff the two (Morris and Maroney), but if Week 5 is any indication, Sammy Morris is the New England RB to own going forward.

He has a rough schedule, but it’s not often you can pluck a #1 RB off the waiver wire. If he’s available, grab him.

2009 NBA Preview: Northwest Division

This year, we’re doing a division-by-division preview with quick-hitting analysis for every team in the league. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff “also-ran,” I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason. At the end of each divisional preview, I’ll provide some (random) thoughts for the fantasy hoopsters out there.

For each division, I’ll pick the order of finish. You’ll also see the team’s league-wide preseason rank in parenthesis. Be sure to check back over the course of the next couple of weeks for previews of each division.

Denver Nuggets (6)
The Nuggets are coming off a 54-28 record and a Northwest Division title. Of their top rotation players, they return all but Linas Kleiza (Olympiakos) and Dahntay Jones (Indiana). HC George Karl hopes that J.R. Smith can be a consistent starting shooting guard, but he won’t be afraid to use Arron Afflalo if Smith doesn’t play solid defense (or with his head on straight). Much of the credit to Denver’s fine season is given to Chauncey Billups, who provided steady play and leadership at point guard, but the health of Nene and Kenyon Martin should not be overlooked. The Nuggets re-signed Chris “The Birdman” Andersen to provide energy, rebounding and shot blocking off the bench. If the front line can stay healthy, Billups can stay productive at 33, and Smith can fulfill his considerable potential, then the Nuggets have enough talent to reach the Western Conference Finals for a second straight season. Even so, it’s hard to see Denver upending a healthy Lakers or Spurs squad in a seven-game series.

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Is Kevin Durant a great player?

In Friday’s post, The Kevin Durant Conundrum, TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott outlines why — based mostly on the reearch of Dallas Mavericks’ statistical expert, Wayne Winston — Durant is not helping his team.

The Thunder have, over the last two years, consistently performed worse than normal when Durant is on the floor. Any way you slice the +/- numbers, he’s one of the Thunder’s worst players.

You read that correctly. Kevin Durant, uniformly regarded as an out-of-this-world NBA player, has been killing his team.

Sometimes +/- can punish players simply for being on bad teams, but this is more than that. Mavericks’ statistical expert Wayne Winston’s in-depth lineup data shows that every one of Durant’s key teammates — Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic, Nick Collison — gets better, in many cases far better, results playing with less heralded teammates Thabo Sefolosha or Kyle Weaver while Durant sits.

In fact, almost nobody on the Thunder has a +/- rating as poor as Durant’s. Winston rates Durant’s performance “in the lowest 10% of all NBA players.”

Abbott goes on to speculate as to why these numbers are the way they are, narrowing it to four different theories: 1) he plays big minutes on a bad team, 2) his teammates are bad, 3) it’s hard to play with a superstar, and 4) he’s very young and he’s likely to see his team outscored.

Durant must have heard about the column, because he fired back via his Twitter account with a series of tweets, obviously aimed at the article:

Everybody that is doubtin me as a player and my team as a whole..all i can say is that we all are tryin and workin our hardest!

What more do u want? let me be the player i am…i come to practice everyday..and push myself to my limit, God has put me n a gr8 position!!

I love all the REAL basketball fans who appreciate hardwork, passion and love for the game..and not jus “plus and minuses”…wateva dat is!

Abbott responded this morning with an open letter to Durant:

Here’s the deal: For two years, when you have been in NBA games, you have put up amazing numbers, but somehow your team has been better when you sat. When you have been out there, opponents have outscored your team pretty bad. When you sit, they don’t outscore your team as much. That’s what plus/minus is.

(The final score, by the way, is also plus/minus. If you play the entire game, and the team wins by twenty, you’re plus-20. It’s not one of those stats you want to ignore. Not when for two years it has been saying the same thing.)

In it, he discusses how Durant’s problems with the pick-and-roll, both offensively and defensively, are hurting the Thunder. It’s a good read for basketball nuts (like me).

As Abbott states in his Monday post, this is nothing to panic about. Durant just turned 21 and still has a lot to learn, especially on the defensive end. Even so, he’s still one of the best prospects in the league and has the potential to be one of the league’s true (few) franchise players. When a player is a terrific scorer (like Durant is), his faults are often overlooked. But that doesn’t mean they go unnoticed by the coaching staff or the opponent. It’s important for the Thunder to dig into these numbers and identify why they are the way they are. If they can fix the cause, it’s likely going to translate to wins for the franchise.

Oh, and the answer to the question in this post’s title is, yes, of course he’s a great player. But he still has room to grow.

Titans to stick with Collins for now

Titans head coach Jeff Fisher stated on Sunday night following Tennessee’s loss to the Colts that Kerry Collins will remain his starting quarterback for the time being.

From Rotoworld.com:

Collins was pulled for Vince Young late in the game, prompting cheers from the home crowd. “We were three and a half, four scores down,” Fisher said. “The game was a little out of hand, and when games get out of hand, either way, you play your backup.” Fisher may reconsider during the Week 7 bye. Downgrade Titans receivers for the rest of the season.

There’s nothing about this decision that I like. The Titans are 0-5 with little hope of turning around their season and yet Fisher refuses to make a change in efforts to light a fire under his lifeless team.

Young isn’t the answer, but Collins can’t move the chains right now and that was once again evident last night. He continues to struggle to with the intermediate to deep throws and while his decision-making hasn’t been good, his accuracy has been his because issue.

I understand if Fisher didn’t want to give up on the season, but Kerry Collins doesn’t seem like the horse you want to throw your life savings on when you need one big score. Young isn’t that player either, but if I’m the Titans I’d rather see what I have with him because I already know what I have in Collins.

Putting into perspective how bad the Bills are

The Bills’ 6-3 loss to the Browns on Sunday was ugly. How ugly?

Let’s look at some facts:

– The Browns were winless coming into Week 5 and the Bills were playing at home. In fact, Cleveland hadn’t won its previous 10 outings before yesterday’s game.

– The Browns had given up an average of 29.5 points per game in their previous four outings, yet the Bills could only muster a field goal.

– Speaking of points, Buffalo has lost three straight games and have only scored 20 points combined in those three losses.

– Browns quarterback Derek Anderson was 2 of 17 for 23 yards and an interception. How the hell does a starting quarterback win in the NFL by only completing 2 of 17 pass attempts? Only 11.8 percent of Anderson’s pass attempts were completed, yet he still was the winning quarterback.

– The Bills were charged with nine false start penalties. NINE.

Granted, the Bills are incredibly banged up defensively, but they can’t use that excuse considering that the Browns only scored six points. Dick Jauron is making a case to be the first coach fired in midseason and his decision to let offensive coordinator Turk Schonert go just days before Buffalo’s opener looks horrible in light of Alex Van Pelt’s brutal start.

I realize that the Bills have a highly inexperienced offensive line that is causing many issues for Trent Edwards and the rest of the offense. But there’s simply no excuse to lose to the Browns 6-3 at home, especially when Derek Anderson completes only two passes for 23 yards.

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