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      Speed overrated in the NFL?

      October 24, 2009 /

      In the Oct. 19 issue of ESPN the Mag (a.k.a. “The Body Issue”), Bruce Feldman argues that speed is far more important in college football, where the hash marks are wider, the preparation isn’t as good and the talent disparity is greater, than it is in the NFL, where everyone is fast.

      Case in point, the Oakland Raiders:

      Or you can just look at the Oakland Raiders. Much like the Gators’, their performance separates them from the pack in recent years — just not in a good way. No one in the NFL covets speed the way the Raiders do.

      Al Davis, the man who pursued such speedsters as the aptly named James Jett, is downright enamored of fast guys, perhaps even more so than Meyer is. (Of the nine fastest players tested by the NFL over the past 10 years, four — Fabian Washington, Stanford Routt, Ashley Lelie and Carlos Francis — have played for the Raiders.) According to an NFL scout, the Raiders had 15 players on their roster last season who’d run a verified 40 of 4.5 or faster — four more than the next “fastest” team. And what did it get them? A sixth-straight season with double-digit losses.

      It’s a good read.

      College Football, NFL, NFL Draft

      2009 NFL Week 7 Picks & Predictions

      October 23, 2009 /

      Instead of limiting myself to only four games like I have the previous weeks, I’ve decided to channel my inner Peter King and make predictions (with smaller write ups) on every contest on the NFL schedule this week.

      49ers at Texans, 1:00PM ET
      It had to have been a long two weeks for San Francisco’s players after the Falcons drubbed the Niners 45-10 in Week 5. Mike Singletary will have his team more focused and I think we’ll see a great defensive effort from San Fran this Sunday to slow down a potent Houston offensive attack.
      Odds: Texans –3.
      Prediction: 49ers 20, Texans 17.

      Packers at Browns, 1:00PM ET
      This will be a closer game than most think. The Packers could be looking ahead to a home date with the Vikings next Sunday, although in the end Cleveland’s offense is putrid and while Green Bay has been inconsistent defensively this year, I think they’ll do enough to get the Pack a victory.
      Odds: Packers –9.
      Prediction: Packers 24, Browns 16.

      Chargers at Chiefs, 1:00PM ET
      Ron Rivera has no clue on how to get San Diego’s defense back on track, but the young, inexperienced Kansas City secondary could have issues slowing down Philip Rivers and the Bolts’ passing game. Still, I think Matt Cassel and company pull off a surprise upset at home against a San Diego team coming off a short week.
      Odds: Chargers –5
      Prediction: Chiefs 20, Chargers 18.

      Colts at Rams, 1:00PM ET
      The Rams have given a nice effort the past two weeks, but this is a horrible matchup for them – even at home. Peyton Manning and company is well rested and the Indy defense will harass Marc Bulger all game.
      Odds: Colts –14
      Prediction: Colts 34, Rams 14.

      Continue reading »

      NFL

      Is LaMarcus Aldridge worth $65 million?

      October 23, 2009 /

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      According to Yahoo! Sports, the total value of the contract is $65 million to $70 million, with some hard-to-reach bonuses.

      This summer, I pegged his value at $13-$14 million per season, and he signed for an average of $13 M plus potential bonuses.

      So is he worth it?

      Bill Simmons has this to say about the deal:

      It continues to floor me that anyone would overpay someone who isn’t a franchise player during these rocky economic times. Like Portland this week — the Trail Blazers inked LaMarcus Aldridge to a five-year, $65 million extension, a deal that might have made sense in the 2006 market, but not right now. I like LaMarcus Aldridge. He’s solid. In this climate, he should not make more than $8 million or $9 million a year. The cap might drop $6 million next season for all we know. Also, inking anyone to an extension that early means you can’t trade him for two solid years. You’re basically marrying the guy. Which means Portland married a power forward who doesn’t play inside and grabs seven to eight rebounds a game. With nobody else bidding for him, no real urgency to do a deal for another year and no idea whether declining revenue will keep wrecking the cap. This makes sense … how? And you thought the NBA was getting smarter.

      Simmons often does this — he second guesses a signing and then lists all the perceived faults of the player. Let’s not forget that Aldridge averages 18.1 points on 48% shooting, which creates lots of driving lanes for Brandon Roy. The Blazers don’t want a power forward that hangs out in the lane. They already have a couple of centers that do this. Portland wants to surround Roy with shooters so that he can get to the rim with ease.

      The Blazers probably overspent a little, but they have the peace of mind that they have their second best player locked up for the next five years. There was no way to convince him that he is only worth “$8 million or $9 million” without letting him hit free agency. (He’s worth more than that, for the record.) By the time he’s convinced, there’s so much ill will between the two sides that a deal never gets done.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA, News, Rumors & Gossip

      2009 NBA Preview: 10 Breakout Candidates

      October 23, 2009 /

      What constitutes a “breakout” season? To me, it’s a talented player who has been in the league at least one year who is about to see a big increase in minutes. Here is a list of 10 players (in no particular order) who I think will have career seasons in 2009-10.

      1. Tyrus Thomas, Bulls
      The 23 year-old is entering his fourth season and will probably be the Bulls’ starter at power forward. He averaged 10.8 points and 6.5 rebounds in 27.5 minutes last season, and an increase in minutes would enhance those numbers. Now that he has an effective mid-range jump shot, he can use that and his athleticism to get to the basket.

      2. Anthony Randolph, Warriors
      Randolph is a popular breakout pick this season after a great summer league and flashes of brilliance in his rookie year. He only played about 18 minutes per game last season, and is playing almost 28 minutes in the preseason, starting every game in which he’s appeared. Don Nelson may not start him during the regular season since he’s been battling some injuries, but expect him to get plenty of run this year.

      3. Anthony Morrow, Warriors
      Let’s stay in Oakland, shall we? Not to read too much into preseason stats, but through eight games, the second-year Morrow is averaging 22.0 points on 58% shooting (52% from 3PT). He’s going to come off the bench, but that might not last for long if Stephen Jackson eventually gets traded. Morrow is one of the league’s best shooters, nailing almost 47% of his threes a year ago.

      4. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
      With Yao Ming out and Tracy McGrady hobbled, the Rockets don’t have a whole lot of offensive options and Brooks is one of the best shooters the team has. He averaged 11.2 points in 25 minutes per game last season. If he gets 32-35 minutes per game, he should average somewhere in the 14-16 ppg range.

      5. Louis Williams, 76ers
      He’s a very different player than Andre Miller, the guy he’s being asked to replace. He isn’t going to drop a lot of dimes, but the guy can score, and if he gets starter’s minutes his averages are going to jump. In the preseason, he’s averaging 14.9 ppg in 27 minutes of PT.

      6. Courtney Lee / Chris Douglas-Roberts, Nets
      I’m listing them both because it’s not clear which will be the Nets’ starting shooting guard on opening day. It may not matter because the other might be the starting small forward. In the preseason, CDM and Lee are averaging 18.5 ppg and 17.0 ppg, respectively. While Devin Harris and Brook Lopez are likely to lead the Nets in scoring, Lee and Douglas-Roberts could both average 12-14 ppg.

      7. J.R. Smith, Nuggets
      Smith has already had a breakout year (in his first season with the Nuggets), but the departure of Dahntay Jones gives Smith the chance to start. George Karl started Jones last season because of his commitment to defense, so it’s just as likely that he finds another defensive-oriented off guard to fill that vacated role. Smith has the talent to start, but can he keep his head on straight and play enough defense to keep Karl happy? (By the way, he’s suspended for the first seven games.)

      8. Channing Frye, Suns
      After a nice rookie season (12p/6r) in New York, Frye wasn’t as good in his second season and landed in Portland where he didn’t get much run. Now he’s the starting center in Phoenix and is averaging 12.3 points and 4.0 rebounds in 26.8 minutes of playing time. The Suns are awfully thin on the front line, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Frye ends up playing 30-35 minutes a game.

      9. Julian Wright, Hornets
      While he isn’t shooting particularly well (41%) in the preseason, it appears that Byron Scott has finally given up on Peja Stojakovic and is ready to hand over the keys to Wright, who has started all six preseason games in which he has appeared. He’s a great athlete and versatile player, but the big mystery with Wright is his three-point shooting. He hit 10-24 attempts in his rookie season, but just 2-21 in his second year. The Hornets need shooters for Chris Paul to pass to, so if Wright doesn’t start knocking down shots, Scott might go back to Peja.

      10. Hakim Warrick, Bucks
      Warrick is leading the Bucks in preseason scoring with 14.4 ppg. He’ll battle with Luc Mbah a Moute, Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova and Joe Alexander for minutes. Scott Skiles will likely start Mbah a Moute at one forward spot because he’s a great defender, but the other is up for grabs. Regardless, Warrick should get plenty of minutes and is on a one-year contract, so he’s very motivated.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA

      Could Florida be in trouble on Saturday?

      October 23, 2009 /

      Considering No. 1 Florida opened as a 24-point favorite, one would assume that they won’t face much of a challenge this Saturday night. Mississippi State is just 3-4 on the year and has lost three of their last four games. Their most significant win came on the road against a Vanderbilt team that is just 2-5 on the year.

      But there are several factors that should concern the Gators as they get ready to do battle with the Bulldogs on Saturday night:

      – The Gators haven’t won in Starkville since 1985. They were defeated on Mississippi State’s home turf in 1992, 2000 and most recently in 2004.

      – Florida could be down three defensive starters, including linebacker Brandon Spikes, and defensive tackles Jaye Howard and Lawrence Marsh. Spikes re-injured his left groin last week and missed most of Florida’s win over Arkansas. With him on the sidelines, the Razorbacks rushed for 133 yards and finished with 357 yards of total offense.

      – Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen severed as Florida’s quarterback coach and offensive coordinator from 2005 to 2008. If anyone knows how to exploit Tim Tebow and the rest of the Gators’ offense, it would be Mullen.

      – Despite their losing record, the Bulldogs have the 13th best rushing offense in the nation and are averaging 219 yards per game on the ground this season. Senior Anthony Dixon has rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last five games, including a 138 and a 139-yard effort in his last two outings.

      At the end of the day, Florida will have the better team on Saturday night. Even without Spikes, Howard and Marsh, they have enough depth defensively to limit how effective Mississippi State’s offense can be. But there are more than enough factors that should have Urban Meyer concerned about a potential upset, none bigger than the Gators’ poor showings in previous trips to Starkville.

      Will Mississippi State shock the college football word this weekend and knock off the No. 1 team in the nation?

      Will Mississpi State pull off the upset?
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      College Football

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