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2009 NFL Week 14 Picks & Predictions

Saints (12-0) at Falcons (6-6), 1:00PM ET
Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are listed as questionable, but if you actually believe they have any chance of playing on Sunday then you must have dipped into Jonathan Babineaux’s personal stash. The Falcons are a mess, the Saints have their sights set on perfection and Drew Brees won’t sleep Saturday night thinking about how many yards he’s going to rack up against Atlanta’s brutal secondary.
Odds: Saints –10.
Prediction: Saints 34, Falcons 10.

Packers (8-4) at Bears (5-7), 1:00PM ET
The Packers are hot after rattling off four in a row and they’ll face a Bears team on Sunday that might be the biggest disappointment in the NFC. That said, if the NFL has taught us anything over the years is that parity has a way of bringing teams back to earth. Call this my small upset special of the week: Bears get up for this one and beat their division rivals in frigid Chicago temperatures.
Odds: Packers –3.
Prediction: Bears 20, Packers 17.

Broncos (8-4) at Colts (12-0), 1:00PM ET
I thought the Colts’ best chance at losing was two weeks ago when they played an inspired Texans team at home. But they didn’t – even when they trailed by double digits in the first half. Last week, I thought the hot Titans would put a scare into Indy in an AFC South grudge match. But they didn’t. I’m not going against Peyton Manning this week, even though logic says the Broncos should keep this game close with their solid defense. Indy won’t run away with this won, but the game won’t be in doubt.
Odds: Colts –7.
Prediction: Colts 24, Broncos 16.

Bills (4-8) at Chiefs (3-9), 1:00PM ET
Things haven’t gone too well for first-year head coach Todd Haley and I’m afraid they won’t get much better this week when the lowly Bills knock the Chiefs off at Arrowhead (which was a place teams used to fear).
Odds: Bills –1.
Prediction: Bills 13, Chiefs 10.

Bengals (9-3) at Vikings (10-2), 1:00PM ET
This ought to be the game of the week, but I’ve got a bad feeling that it won’t be as close as people think. The Bengals are good – damn good. But they’re playing an unfamiliar opponent in unfamiliar territory in a hostile environment. Something tells me that this will be a statement game for Brett Favre and company after the Vikes lost to the Cardinals last Sunday night on prime time.
Odds: Vikings –7.
Prediction: Vikings 28, Bengals 20.

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Decade Debate: 10 Biggest Upsets

The term upset is simply defined as “an unexpected defeat,” but in sports it can mean so much more. For the favorite, it’s about the pressure that comes with heightened expectations. For the underdog, it’s about using those expectations as motivation. As part of our ongoing Decade Debate series, here is a list of the ten biggest upsets of the last ten years. Remember, the magnitude of the stage is just as important as the perceived disparity between the two parties involved, so extra points are given to upsets that occurred in the postseason or in a title game.

10. Federer beats Sampras at the 2001 Wimbledon

By 2001, the sports world had begun to question Pete Sampras’ ability as a dominant tennis player. The man was just 29 years old and the owner of 13 Grand Slam titles, but critics predicted an oncoming collapse. Since winning the Australian Open in 1997, Pistol Pete’s Grand Slam championships curiously only came at Wimbledon. In fact, Sampras had captured all but one Wimbledon championship since his first appearance in 1993. Naturally, if he was a sure bet anywhere, it was at the All England Club. While most will remember this time period as the declining stage of Sampras’ career, it also marked the beginning of Roger Federer’s success as a professional. After winning the Wimbledon juniors in 1998, Federer was often viewed as the likely heir to Sampras’ throne. Still, nobody expected the 19 year-old and the Grand Slam record holder to clash at Wimbledon in 2001. Furthermore, if they did happen to meet, Federer wasn’t supposed to win. Making his Centre Court debut, Federer defeated Sampras 7-6 (7), 5-7, 6-4, 6-7 (2), 7-5, thereby snapping Sampras’ 31-match winning streak at Wimbledon. Sure, it was only a fourth round match, but it symbolized so much more. This is one of the greatest upsets of the decade not simply because Sampras was favored, but because of everything that followed. Sampras would retire in two years and Federer would eventually live up to those wild expectations. And forget about Sampras getting any revenge – the two would never again face each other on the professional level. – Christopher Glotfelty

9. Edmonton upsets Detroit in 2006 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Detroit was a heavy favorite in the quarterfinals, as the top-seeded Red Wings were coming off a terrific 124-point regular season in which they captured the President’s Trophy. Meanwhile, the Oilers squeaked into the playoffs as an #8-seed after a 95-point regular season. The Red Wings won Game 1 in Detroit, but dropped Game 2. The two teams also split the next two games in Edmonton. The Oilers then closed out the series winning Game 5 in Detroit and Game 6 at home, both by one-goal margins. The series featured two double-overtime games (Game 1 & Game 6) and all six games were decided by two goals or less. – John Paulsen

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NFL Week 13 ROY Power Rankings

There are several rookies making an impact this season, and you could probably make a case for any of the names mentioned below. Considering most of them have not played more than 11 or 12 games in a season until now, it will be interesting to see how it shakes out the next few weeks:

1. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings—Six more catches for 79 yards and another TD in a losing effort in the desert. The kid keeps putting up numbers and Favre has got to love him.

2. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos—He’s really starting to carry the load in Denver, literally. Last Sunday Moreno carried 21 times for 86 yards and 2 touchdowns. Next season this kid is going to be a high fantasy pick.

3. Jairus Byrd, Buffalo Bills—He’s still tied for the NFL lead with 8 interceptions, but hasn’t had one in a few weeks. That doesn’t bode well for Matt Cassel today.

4. James Laurinaitis, St. Louis Rams— Nine more solo tackles against the Bears has kept Laurinaitis in good company. Very good company.

5. Michael Oher, Baltimore Ravens—This kid is a rookie who already has a movie about him…the fact that it’s already a blockbuster earns Michael a spot here, and oh yeah, he’s played really well.

Honorable mention: Hakeem Nicks, Giants; Johnny Knox, Bears; Ryan Succop, Chiefs; Matthew Stafford, Lions; Beanie Wells, Cardinals; Jeremy Maclin, Eagles; Brian Cushing, Texans; LeSean McCoy, Eagles

NFL Week 13 COY Power Rankings

It’s not like we can dock Sean Payton here, but let’s face it. If Shaun Suisham kicks that 23-yard field goal for the Redskins, Payton’s Saints are 11-1 right now. Sure, they proved that they are never out of any game, but based on how Jim Caldwell’s Colts handled a red-hot Titans team, we give him the nod this week.

1. Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis Colts—We’ll say it again. Rookie head coaches, no matter how much talent they inherit, do not start 12-0. And don’t think Caldwell’s boys can’t run the table. Very impressive.

2. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints—The bottom line is 12-0 and an early division crown. Next up, trying to lock up home field, which would make getting to the Super Bowl for any other NFC team next to impossible.

3. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals—Did anyone else expect a shift in the balance of power in the AFC North like this? The Bengals have a three-game lead over the Ravens and a 3.5 game lead over the Steelers with four to play. And Lewis has his now defense-and-ball-control team believing.

4. Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos—Maybe those four losses were not the norm, after watching the way the Broncs dominated both the G-men and Chiefs. Whoever winds up playing these guys in January should be really afraid.

5. Brad Childress, Minnesota Vikings—So finally the Vikings went up against an explosive offense their defense couldn’t stop. But that was likely just a bump in the road.

Honorable mention: Ken Whisenhunt, Cardinals; Jack Del Rio, Jaguars; Mike McCarthy, Packers; Andy Reid, Eagles

NFL Week 13 MVP Power Rankings

The way the Saints have been winning each week has been like a gift to their fans. That is, it’s been a SURPRISE each week. Sometimes they dominate, sometimes they make it more interesting than it should be, and sometimes they flat out get a, well, gift, from the opposing team. Last Sunday it was the latter against a Washington team that let the Saints back in the game by missing a chip shot field goal. Drew Brees and company took care of the rest, and that’s why our man remains atop this list, with Peyton Manning right there behind him.

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—He’s got a 111.3 QB rating to lead the NFL—3536 passing yards, 69% completion percentage and 29 touchdowns to 10 picks. Oh, and yeah…his team is 12-0 and has already clinched the NFC South.

2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—Not much different from Brees’ numbers—3685 passing yards, a ridiculous 70% completion rate, 25 TDs and 11 interceptions…and the same 12-0 record for his Colts, with a clinched AFC South.

3. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings—A much more human game for Favre against Arizona Sunday night, but despite those 2 interceptions, he still threw for 275 yards and two scores. It just wasn’t enough, and even worse, the Cardinals may have gotten into the Vikings’ collective head.

4. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—Despite being sacked a league high 45 times, Rodgers had led his team to four straight wins and has them in position for a wild card berth. And he probably hates this comparison, but his numbers are very Favre-esque: 3399 yards, 25 TDs, 7 picks.

5. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals—After missing a few starts due to injury, Cedric returned (albeit against Detroit) and promptly carried 36 times for 110 yards. Sure, there are two RBs with more yards per game (Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson), but Benson is making more of an impact for his team…the definition of MVP.

Honorable Mention—Chris Johnson, Titans; Philip Rivers, Chargers; Adrian Peterson, Vikings; Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, Reggie Wayne, Colts; Jared Allen, Vikings; Vince Young, Titans; Elvis Dumervil, Broncos; Darren Sharper, Saints; Randy Moss, Patriots; Wes Welker, Patriots

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