Nobody knows how tonight’s picks will work out. But naturally everyone will have opinions.

I’m more interested in overall strategy as opposed to making definitive statements about specific players. Good drafting is about more than player valuation. It’s mostly about probability analysis. The teams that forget that and fall in love with players usually end up making mistakes.

Let’s start with the Texans. This team has a horrible roster, and they have an owner that likes to meddle. They’re also on their third head coach in three years. Basically, the organization is a dumpster fire.

Despite that, the Texans were sitting on a ton of draft capital as a result of last year’s Deshaun Watson trade with the Browns. If they sat back and let the draft come to them, they could load up on talent this year and next.

But these are the Texans, so chaos rules. The owner wanted a quarterback, so they draft C.J. Stroud with the second pick of the draft. Solid pick. Now they could wait till pick #12 and get another very good player.

But their new head coach, a former linebacker from Alabama, wanted to draft . . . a pass-rushing linebacker from Alabama. What a shock! And what a shock that this organization would let their head coach have this much influence over the draft. So what did they do? One person in the organization couldn’t get the player they loved, so the Texans traded a boatload of picks to trade up to the third pick to grab Will Anderson.

When your GM can’t control the draft, and has to defer to the owner and head coach, you have a mess on your hands.

This doesn’t mean Will Anderson won’t be an excellent player. It’s about how you approach the draft, and the Texans seem to be clueless. Squandering draft capital rarely works out, particularly for teams who are desperate to fill out their roster.