Category: horse racing (Page 5 of 7)

Can Animal Kingdom take home the Triple Crown this year?

May 10, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

It’s funny how much things can change in a matter of days. Animal Kingdom wasn’t even on most bettors’ radar last week heading into the Kentucky Derby and now observers are wondering if he can become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed accomplished the feat in 1978.

At the start of the week, Animal Kingdom was a 30/1 long shot to win Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. He took a backseat to more intriguing contenders like Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man and Twice The Appeal (ridden by popular jockey Calvin Borel). In fact, Animal Kingdom even switched jockeys the day before the race when John R. Velazquez lost his mount with Uncle Mo, who was scratched due to a gastrointestinal issue.

But Velazquez rode Animal Kingdom to his first career win at the Kentucky Derby and now the pair is the talk of the horseracing world. In fact, along with Dialed In, Animal Kingdom is a 4/1 favorite to win the Preakness on May 21.

Of course, most horses that win the Kentucky Derby are considered the favorite to win the Preakness. Oddsmakers base their lines on how they think the public will wager and causal bettors are instantly drawn to the Kentucky Derby winner when it comes to betting the Preakness. Just because a horse wins at Churchill Downs doesn’t mean he has what it takes to win at Pimlico and Belmont Park. In 2009, Borel rode Mine That Bird to victory in the Kentucky Derby but finished second in the Preakness and third in the Belmont. In 2008, many felt that Big Brown had the best chance of winning the Triple Crown in the last decade and after winning the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, he flopped in the Belmont and finished ninth.

But here’s the thing: I think Animal Kingdom does have what it takes. In fact, I think if he can win in two weeks at Pimlico, he’ll cruise at the Belmont (barring injury, of course). The concerns about him coming into the Kentucky Derby were that a) he only had four races under his belt and b) that he could run on dirt. Well, he’s now raced five times in his career with three wins and two second-place finishes. And he apparently runs on dirt just fine, as his win at the Kentucky Derby proved.

My bigger concern for Animal Kingdom heading into the Preakness is Dialed In. I don’t think we saw his best effort at Churchill Downs last week, as he hung in the back of the pack too long before finally making his move down the stretch. He finished a disappointing 8th but again, I don’t think we saw his best effort. (It would also be interesting to see if Uncle Mo could make a recovery and run in the Preakness, although I think those odds are between “slim” and “no way in hell.”)

But if Animal Kingdom can eke out a win in two weeks, I like his chances of capturing the Belmont and giving horseracing fans their first Triple Crown winner in nearly 34 years. As the overused, clichéd sports take goes: He certainly has all the tools.

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Animal Kingdom wins 2011 Kentucky Derby

May 7, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

Jockey John Velazquez wasn’t even supposed to mount Animal Kingdom on Saturday.

A day after losing his ride when Uncle Mo was scratched due to a gastrointestinal problem, Velazquez rode Animal Kingdom to victory at the 2011 Kentucky Derby. It was Velazquez’s first career win at the first leg of the Triple Crown, which makes this day even more special for the jockey from Carolina, Puerto Rico.

Animal Kingdom was a long-shot coming into this week at 30/1. His odds didn’t wavier much, as bettors focused on the favorite Dialed In, the Calvin Borel-mounted Twice The Appeal, and Pants On Fire (who was ridden by 23-year-old Rosie Napravnik, who was hoping to become the first-ever female to win the Kentucky Derby).

But in the end, Dialed In finished a disappointing eighth after spending much of the race in the rear. Borel never got Twice The Appeal moving either, because the combo finished 10th and Pants On Fire came in ninth.

A $2 wager on Animal Kingdom paid $43.80 to win, $19.60 to place and $13.00 to show. Nehro finished second and paid $8.80 to place and $6.40 to show, while Mucho Macho Man paid out $7.00 on a $2 wager to show.

A $2 Exacta on Animal Kingdom and Nehro paid out $329.80, while a $2 Trifecta of Animal Kingdom, Nehro and Mucho Macho man paid out $3,952.40. Finally, a winning $2 superfecta of Animal Kingdom, Nehro, Mucho Macho Man and Shackleford (who lead for most of the race) paid $48,126.00.

The track announced that 164,858 people attended the race, which set a new attendance record for the Kentucky Derby. It surpassed the previous record crowd of 163,628 set back in 1974.

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2011 Kentucky Derby Predictions

May 7, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

Listen, I don’t mean to brag but I’m going to anyway.

I was good last year predicting the Triple Crown – I mean, real good.

I had Paddy O’prado to place in the Kentucky Derby (he finished third) and Super Saver (the winner) listed as one of the horses to “keep your eye on.” In the Preakness, I hit Lookin’ At Lucky for the win and nailed First Dude to finish in the money, which is noteworthy since he was a 20/1 long shot to open. Finally, in the Belmont, I predicted the top three (Drosselmeyer, Fly Down, First Dude) to finish in the money, although not in the correct order.

So basically what I’m saying is that if you don’t take my picks today and wager the deed to your house, your wife and/or your dog, that’s just dumb. LET IT RIDE!!!

I’m kidding – I’m not that arrogant, although I did mange to find some luck last year in my predictions so we’ll see how I fare this year. On second thought, you may want to avoid these three…

Win: Twice The Appeal (+1000)
Like I’m going to pass on taking Calvin Borel at Churchill Downs…when he’ll be coming out of the No. 3 post position. Ha! No way. Twice The Appeal has won three of his last four races, with his latest victory coming at the Sunland Derby on March 27. He does seem a little too good to be true, but I have faith in more Borel magic happening today.

Place: Archacharch (+1200)
Why isn’t this horse receiving more love? He drew the rail on Wednesday and his odds went from +900 to +1200. Granted, the rail hasn’t produced a winner since 1988 (Winning Colors) but it still has the most victories (12) in Kentucky Derby history. It’s a prime spot and for a horse that is coming off a victory at the Arkansas Derby to be listed at +1200, this feels like a nice value. If it weren’t for Calvin Borel’s magic at Churchill Downs, I would probably peg Archarcharch to win.

Show: Dialed In (+500)
Dialed In has been the favorite all week, even though his odds continue to drop. He was listed at +350 on Monday, +300 on Tuesday, and +250 on Wednesday when the post positions were drawn. Now he’s +500, which seems like a great value to me. He won the Florida Derby in his last outing on April 3 and also took first in the Holly Bull earlier this year. The only problem is that he doesn’t have much career experience, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he won the roses on Saturday. He’s a nice-looking horse.

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Uncle Mo scratched from Kentucky Derby, Dialed In now clear favorite

May 6, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

For weeks, the notion surrounding the Kentucky Derby is that there is no clear-cut favorite this year. But given the latest news on contender Uncle Mo, one may have just emerged.

During a press conference on Friday morning, trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole announced that Uncle Mo had been diagnosed with a gastrointestinal infection after fishing a disappointing third in the Wood Memorial on April 9. He was then treated with antibiotics and had appeared to be improving, but after consulting with a trio of veterinarians Pletcher and Repole came to the conclusion that their colt wouldn’t be ready in time for Saturday’s race.

So Uncle Mo has been scratched.

The main beneficiary of Uncle Mo’s misfortune is Dialed In, who has been considered the favorite for weeks. But his odds were listed at +350 on Monday, while Uncle Mo was +400 – thus the reason that observers didn’t feel as though there was a clear-cut favorite this weekend.

But now Dialed In is listed at +250, while the thoroughbred with the next best odds is Nehro at +700. Oddly enough, Nehro was going off at +600 on Monday, +400 on Wednesday and is now +700, so his odds have actually gotten worse despite the news that Uncle Mo has been scratched.

Either way, Dialed In would appear to be the clear-cut favorite to win this Saturday. And if recent history is any indication, that may not be a good thing. Big Brown was the last favorite to win the Kentucky Derby back in 2008. Since then, two long shots in Mine That Bird and Super Saver have won. But maybe this is the year that the favorite gets back into the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs.

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Kentucky Derby post positions announced – ArchArchArch draws rail

May 4, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

The post positions for the 2011 Kentucky Derby have been drawn and midrange favorite Archarcharch will start at the rail this Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Here is the complete list of post positions: No. 1 ArchArchArch; No. 2 Brilliant Speed; No. 3 Twice the Appeal; No. 4 Stay Thirsty; No. 5 Decisive Moment; No. 6 Comma to the Top; No. 7 Pants on Fire; No. 8 Dialed In; No. 9 Derby Kitten; No. 10 Twinspired; No. 11 Master of Houds; No. 12 Santiva; No. 13 Mucho Macho Man; No. 14 Shackleford; No. 15 Midnight Interlude; No. 16 Animal Kingdom; No. 17 Soldat; No. 18 Uncle Mo; No. 19 Nehro; No. 20 Watch Me Go.

If I’m betting a horse on name alone, I’ve got to go with either Nehro or Stay Thirsty. Nehro just sounds cool and I’m assuming Stay Thirsty is a nod to “The Most Interesting Man in the World,” which is downright spectacular. (And if the name is not meant to pay homage to “The Most Interesting Man in the World,” I don’t want to hear about it. Stay Thirsty, my friends.)

Of course, if history has taught us anything it’s that Nehro won’t walk away with any roses this weekend. The No. 19 post position has never won the Kentucky Derby, which started in 1900. The same goes for the No. 17 post position, so steer clear of Soldat, too.

On the flip side, the rail and the No. 5 post have won the most, collecting 12 wins apiece. The No. 4 position has won 11 times, while the No. 8 and No. 10 positions have each been victorious 10 times. Therefore, for those looking to wager on the favorite, Dialed In, his odds just got better seeing as how he’ll come out of the No. 8 gate.

One horse of note is Twice the Appeal, who will be ridden by jockey Calvin Borel. Borel of course has won the last two Derbys and three of the last four. He rode Super Saver (out of the No. 4 post position) to victory for Todd Pletcher last year.

I’m as causal a horseracing fan as they come, but I did pretty well with my predictions last year. I had Paddy O’prado to place in the Kentucky Derby (he finished third) and Super Saver listed as one of the horses to “keep your eye on.” In the Preakness, I hit Lookin’ At Lucky for the win and nailed First Dude to finish in the money, which is noteworthy since he was a 20/1 long shot to open. Finally, in the Belmont, I predicted the top three (Drosselmeyer, Fly Down, First Dude) to finish in the money, although not in the correct order.

With all the luck I had in 2010, methinks you may want to steer clear of me this year as well.

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archacharch dialed in Kentucky Derby

Category: horse racing (Page 5 of 7)

Can Animal Kingdom take home the Triple Crown this year?

Animal Kingdom wins 2011 Kentucky Derby

2011 Kentucky Derby Predictions

Uncle Mo scratched from Kentucky Derby, Dialed In now clear favorite

Kentucky Derby post positions announced – ArchArchArch draws rail

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