Last year, John Hollinger’s Draft Rater really liked Ty Lawson and Tyreke Evans, and that turned out well. The year before, it liked Michael Beasley over Derrick Rose, who wasn’t even listed as the top point guard in the draft. It also liked Kevin Love (score) and thought Anthony Randolph was way overrated (fail).
In the past, Hollinger’s system has been pretty accurate, all things considered.
The Draft Rater has yet to miss a lottery pick who became an All-Star in its top 12 collegians list — although that string may end in another year or two thanks to a miserable 2008 performance (Russell Westbrook and Brook Lopez both were overlooked that year). And if it’s blown a couple of picks, look at the actual draft and you’ll find even more mistakes by the pro teams themselves.
On the other hand, the Draft Rater has picked out five All-Stars that the pros missed among the first 12 collegians — Carlos Boozer, Rajon Rondo, Danny Granger, Josh Howard, and David West. No misses, five additions. I like that ratio.
It’s a good read, but to sum up, the Rater thinks DeMarcus Cousins is the top player in the draft, with Evan Turner and John Wall reasonably close behind. Questions about Cousins’ coachability will likely hinder his draft stock, but I think he’s going to be a great player. You don’t rebound like he does and not love the game. He just needs to get into a good, stable situation with a solid coach and grow up a little bit.
It’s going to be interesting to watch how he progresses through the draft process. Do we hear stories about how he’s texting his friends during interviews with NBA teams? Does he dog it in certain workouts? If he acts like a pro over the next month, it could mean he’s picked #2 or #3 instead of #5 or #6.
The Rater also predicts some duds; Cole Aldrich, Patrick Patterson, Ekpe Udoh, Ed Davis and Hassan Whiteside are the big names on that list.
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