Author: John Paulsen (Page 666 of 937)

For QBs, it’s boom or bust in the middle rounds

Take a look at this list of fantasy QBs, in order of Average Draft Position. The ADP is from Antsports’ 12-team league drafts from 8/1-9/1, and the last number on each line is the player’s average points per game in Antsports’ High Performance scoring system.

QB7 (5.09) Derek Anderson, 9.5
QB8 (5.11) Donovan McNabb, 30.4*
QB9 (7.04) Jay Cutler, 28.5
QB10 (7.05) Matt Hasselbeck, 10.6
QB11 (8.04) Brett Favre, 15.3
QB12 (8.07) Marc Bulger, 10.3
QB13 (8.08) Eli Manning, 20.4
QB14 (8.09) David Garrard, 11.7
QB15 (9.04) Matt Schaub, 18.5*
QB16 (9.07) Phillip Rivers, 26.4
QB17 (9.11) Jake Delhomme, 13.0
QB18 (10.04) Jon Kitna 19.8
QB19 (10.05) Aaron Rodgers, 26.7
QB20 (10.12) Vince Young, 7.9*

* only one game of data is included

Save for Favre, Delhomme and maybe Schaub, each of these quarterbacks is either greatly outperforming or severely underperforming in relation to their preseason expectations. I see two distinct groups: Boom and Bust.

Boom: McNabb, Cutler, E. Manning, Rivers, Kitna and Rodgers

Bust: Anderson, Hasselbeck, Bulger, Garrard and Young

Sure, it’s early, but think about it this way – if you had a QB in the Bust group, is there any possible trade for a player in the Boom group (i.e. Anderson-McNabb, Hasselbeck-Cutler, etc.) where you wouldn’t pull the trigger? I was high on Garrard before the season, but after two weeks of watching the Jaguars disappointing pass offense in action, I’d be more than willing to make a Garrard-for-Kitna swap if the opportunity presented itself (although Kitna is a little dicey because his job isn’t that secure). Likewise, if you have a Boom player, would you trade him for any of the players in the Bust group? I wouldn’t.

Chances are that a few quarterbacks in each group will return to the mean. Some in the Boom group will cool off while some in the Bust group will heat up. But right now, there is a big disparity within this group of quarterbacks.

Fantasy Fallout, Week 2: Sunday’s Games

Much of Week 2 has come and gone, and road teams were 9-5 in Sunday’s games. Here is just about everything you need to know (fantasy-wise) from Sunday’s action.

Steelers 10 @ Browns 6
Ben Roethlisberger has been fighting a sore shoulder, but he manned-up in tough conditions tonight, throwing for 186 yards and a TD in an important divisional matchup…Hines Ward (5-59-1) and Santonio Holmes (5-94) were his main targets, but Heath Miller (2-33) was also involved…Willie Parker rushed 28 times for 105 yards, while Rashard Mendenhall didn’t register a single carry. This is the Willie Parker show for now…The Steelers defense showed up with two sacks and two picks, and allowing just six points to the Browns…Derek Anderson had a rough game (166 yards, 2 INT) and Braylon Edwards (3-32) wasn’t much help…Kellen Winslow (7-55) was the only bright spot in the Cleveland passing game and he wasn’t even on the field for the final play…In a tough matchup, Jamal Lewis grinded 22 touches (including three catches) into 66 total yards.

49ers 33 @ Seahawks 30
All in all, a pretty mediocre performance by the Seattle defense, even though they posted eight sacks, forced a fumble and returned an interception for a TD. The fantasy points are nice, but they allowed 26 points to the 49ers offense…J.T. O’Sullivan seems to be settling into Mike Martz’s system. He had 321 passing yards and threw a TD to Bryant Johnson (who posted 6-78-1 in the win)…Isaac Bruce showed up with a 4-158 day, while Frank Gore had a solid all-around game, turning 24 touches (including five catches) into 99 yards and a TD. For those that were worried about Martz forgetting about his RB, I think the first two weeks of the season indicate that Gore is very much on Martz’s mind…Vernon Davis failed to register a catch, which is pretty worrisome considering all the success O’Sullivan had through the air…Matt Hasselbeck’s woes continue (189 passing yards, 2 INT) – he just doesn’t have the weapons to throw to. It might be a good time to try to buy low, as he should get Deion Branch and Bobby Engram back in Week 5…With Maurice Morris out with an injury, Julius Jones took advantage by turning 29 touches into 141 yards and a score. He looks like a solid start as long as Morris is out…Rookie TE John Carlson went for 6-78 and should be a fringe starting TE as long as Seattle is having WR troubles…Speaking of wideouts, Billy McMullen was the best of the bunch with three catches for 48 yards.

Falcons 9 @ Bucs 24
Brian Griese played decent as Tampa Bay’s starter. He hit on 18 of his 31 passes for 160 yards and a TD. He looks like a backup option or possible starter in 2 QB leagues…Earnest Graham was kind of quiet to start, but busted a 68-yard TD run in the fourth quarter to finish with 128 total yards on 16 touches. Hopefully, that will earn him some more work, but right now he and Warrick Dunn (15 touches, 70 yards, TD) are pretty much splitting the work…Joey Galloway (2-18) and Ike Hilliard (4-41) both had relatively quiet days…Michael Turner came crashing to Earth with a 15-touch, 48-yard, zero-TD effort. He looks like a starter depending on the matchup…Matt Ryan threw for 158 yards and two interceptions, and never really seemed to get on track…Roddy White (4-59) and Laurent Robinson (4-45) shared the receiving duties.

Dolphins 10 @ Cardinals 31
Kurt Warner filleted the Miami defense for 361 yards and three scores, which were all thrown to Anquan Boldin (6-140-3)…Larry Fitzgeraled (6-153) also had a very nice day…It looks like Tim Hightower (11 touches, 44 yards, TD) is going to continue to poach goal line carries from Edgerrin James (19 touches, 55 yards)…The Cardinals defense played pretty well with 10 PA, two sacks and a forced fumble…Where in the world is Anthony Fasano? After a huge game last week, he put up a goose egg this week, so he’s obviously not a safe option at TE…Chad Pennington struggled all day and finished with just 112 passing yards and no TD…Ricky Williams (12 touches, 29 yards) and Ronnie Brown (13 touches, 44 yards, TD) both struggled to get things going on the ground…Derek Hagan (3-51) and Greg Camarillo (4-49) led a pretty unimpressive group of WRs…For Ted Ginn owners, it might be time to look elsewhere for help at wideout. He had just one catch for nine yards.

Chargers 38 @ Broncos 39
San Diego got screwed in the best game of the day, but given the score, there were obviously a number of different fantasy stars…Brandon Marshall returned from his one-game suspension to post a mind-boggling 18 catches for 166 yards and a score…Jay Cutler (350 yards, 4 TD, INT) ignored everyone else at times, throwing only to Marshall. However, Tony Scheffler (6-64-2) and Eddie Royal (5-37-1) both managed big games as well…Selvin Young led Denver’s RBBC with nine touches for 86 yards. Andre Hall (7-31) and Michael Pittman (7-30-1) did their part as well. Pittman is clearly the team’s short-yardage back…Phillip Rivers (377 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) had a huge day and looks like he’s made serious progress in his game since last season…LaDainian Tomlinson was bothered by a sore toe, so he was limited to just 12 touches for 40 yards. The team might want to shut him down if it means the toe will heal, because Darren Sproles managed to turn nine touches into 125 yards, including a dynamic 66-yard reception for a score…Chris Chambers (4-83-2) is turning into a good receiving threat, while Vincent Jackson (6-73) is making progress as well…Antonio Gates turned in a modest four catches for 61 yards.

Patriots 19 @ Jets 10
New England isn’t dead yet. The defense turned in two sacks, an interception and just 10 PA…Matt Cassel was efficient yet unspectacular with 165 yards passing and no scores or picks. The Patriots didn’t ask him to do too much. They were pretty content just to kick field goals once they got into the redzone…Wes Welker had seven catches for 72 yards and outshined Randy Moss, who caught just two passes for 22 yards. Cassel and Moss almost connected on a bomb, but the ball was seriously underthrown. Moss still should have made the catch, however…Laurence Maroney only managed seven carries before leaving the game with a shoulder injury. He came back into the game to carry the ball one more time, finishing with eight carries for 16 yards…Sammy Morris (10 touches, 7 yards, TD) and LaMont Jordan (11 carries, 62 yards) continue to cut into Maroney’s touches…Brett Favre had a decent game, posting 181 yards, a TD and a pick in the loss…He and Laveranues Coles (3-72) seemed to find a little bit of a groove, while Jerricho Cotchery was held to just one catch for 20 yards…Favre seems to like rookie Chansi Stuckey (4-43-1), who has now caught a TD in each of the first two games…Thomas Jones (19 touches, 75 yards) had a quiet game against a good Patriots defense.

Bears 17 @ Panthers 20
It looks like Carolina is destined to be in a lot of close games this season…Donte Rosario fought an injury this week and fell back to Earth with just one catch for six yards…Jonathan Stewart got a lot of work late in this game and finished with 14-77-2. It looks like he and DeAngelo Williams are going to form a RBBC until further notice…Muhsin Muhammad (5-59) was the only Carolina receiver of note as a result of Jake Delhomme’s quiet day (128 passing yards, INT)…Matt Forte had another nice day (26 touches, 113 yards) but failed to score…Brandon Lloyd (5-66) was the only Bears receiver to catch more than three passes.

Titans 24 @ Bengals 7
It looks like the Bengals offense is in serious trouble…Carson Palmer had another miserable day, throwing for just 134 yards and two interceptions…As a result, Chad Ocho Cinco (4-37) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (3-26) had quiet days…Chris Perry’s touchdown was Cincinnati’s only offensive bright spot…For the Titans, Justin Gage turned his sleeper status into 5-59-1, but otherwise the Titans’ passing game was pretty quiet. Kerry Collins represents an improvement in the passing game, but Tennessee didn’t really need to throw the ball much against the Bengals…Chris Johnson (19 carries, 109 yards) and LenDale White (18 carries, 59 yards, TD).

Packers 48 @ Lions 25
Aaron Rodgers was a strong start against Detroit and he didn’t disappoint, throwing for 328 yards and three TD, while also gaining 25 yards on the ground…Ryan Grant was a fantasy dud, posting just 20 yards on 15 carries. Meanwhile, Brandon Jackson gained 61 yards and scored once on seven carries…Greg Jennings (6-167), Donald Driver (7-52-1), James Jones (4-29-1) and Jordy Nelson (1-29-1) all had good games for the Packers receiving corps…The Green Bay defense posted five sacks, three interceptions and two interception return TD in a big defensive day…The Lions got off to a slow start, but started getting their offense going once they fell behind by 21 points…Calvin Johnson was the Lions’ brightest star, posting 6-129-2, while Roy Williams went for just 3-48. It appears that Calvin is taking over as the Lions WR1…Jon Kitna threw for 276 yards and two TD, but also had three costly picks…Rookie Kevin Smith turned 14 touches into 61 yards, but became an afterthought in the offense once Detroit fell behind.

Bills 20 @ Jaguars 16
Trent Edwards (239 passing yards, TD) had a nice day throwing the ball, specifically to Fred Jackson (7-83) and Lee Evans (4-77)…Marshawn Lynch turned 20 touches into just 67 yards, but did score a TD…After a big game last week, Robert Royal failed to register a catch this week…The Jaguars offense is in trouble…David Garrard threw for 165 yards and had a pick…Fred Taylor (54 total yards) and Maurice Jones-Drew (42 total yards, TD) both had pretty quiet games…Matt Jones was the Jags’ top receiver (5-50)…The Bills defense (16 PA, two sacks, one INT) looks pretty good.

Raiders 23 @ Chiefs 8
The Oakland running game really looked good, with Darren McFadden (21-164-1) taking over for Justin Fargas (9-43) after an injury knocked Fargas out of the game…Michael Bush (16-90-1) also got some serious work late in the game…JaMarcus Russell (55 yards passing) struggled and Ronald Curry failed to catch a pass…Zach Miller (2-24) led the Raiders in receiving…Damon Huard was knocked of the game and Tyler Thigpen came in to throw for 151 yards, a TD and a pick…Dwayne Bowe (6-90) and Tony Gonzalez (5-39-1) predictably led the Chiefs in receiving…Larry Johnson had 12 carries for 22 yards and zero catches in a very disappointing day.

Colts 18 @ Vikings 15
Peyton Manning and the Colts passing game got off to a slow start, but Manning finished with 311 yards and a TD, though he did throw two picks…Anthony Gonzalez (9-137) and Reggie Wayne (5-93-1) were his favorite targets while Marvin Harrison caught just one pass for 16 yards…Joseph Addai never really got the running game going, finishing with 20 yards and a score on 15 carries…Ryan Longwell accounted for all of Minnesota’s points, hitting five field goals on the day…Adrian Peterson gained 180 total yards on 33 touches…Tarvaris Jackson had a bad day, throwing for just 130 yards without throwing a TD or a pick…Bobby Wade was the Vikings’ top receiver with 42 yards on three catches…Neither Bernard Berrian nor Sidney Rice managed to catch a pass in the game.

Giants 41 @ Rams 13
Eli Manning had a great day, throwing for 260 yards and three TD. Plaxico Burress (5-81-1) and Amani Toomer (6-67-1) were his two favorite targets…Brandon Jacobs (15-93) led the Giants in rushing, but Ahmad Bradshaw (six touches, 70 yards, 2 TD) had a big game in garbage time…Torry Holt (6-76-1) had a pretty solid stat line, while Marc Bulger (177 passing yards, TD, INT) had a mediocre game…Steven Jackson only had 53 yards on the ground, but caught seven passes for 37 yards to post decent numbers in PPR leagues.

Saints 24 @ Redskins 29
The Redskins got big games out of Clinton Portis (21 carries, 96 yards, 2 TD) and Santana Moss (7-164-1), and Chris Cooley chipped in with five catches for 72 yards…Jason Campbell had a nice day, posting 321 yards and a TD, and the nice all-around numbers from the Redskins indicate that maybe the implementation of the West Coast Offense isn’t going so badly after all…Drew Brees had a medicore game (216 passing yards, TD, 2 INT) and the Saints had a tough time running the ball…Reggie Bush posted good numbers in PPR leagues with seven catches for 63 yards even though he only had 28 yards on the ground…David Patten went for 5-55…Pierre Thomas (8 touches, 37 yards, 1 TD) continues to back up Bush…Robert Meachem had one catch for 19 yards and a TD.

Baltimore/Houston game postponed until Nov. 9

The Ravens/Texans game was pushed back until Monday night, but NFL officials decided to postpone it until Nov. 9 due to hurricane-related damage to Reliant Stadium.

The Nov. 9 game will be held during the Ravens’ bye week. The Texans’ home game against the Cincinnati Bengals, originally scheduled for Nov. 9, will be moved to Oct. 26, which was the bye week for both of those teams.

This Sunday will now count as the bye for the Ravens and Texans. The Bengals’ bye will be Nov. 9.

If you have any Ravens or Texans in your fantasy roster, it’s time to bench them.

Delonte West signs with Cavs

The trade for Mo Williams might have meant the end for Delonte West’s tenure in Cleveland. On Friday, the Cavs made sure that didn’t happen.

Guard Delonte West signed a multiyear deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday, ending concerns the restricted free agent would hold out at training camp.

General Manager Danny Ferry didn’t disclose terms of the deal Friday.

The 25-year-old West will compete for time with Mo Williams, the former Milwaukee guard who was Cleveland’s major offseason acquisition, and Daniel Gibson, another Cleveland restricted free agent who signed back with the team.

I think the idea is for Williams, West and Gibson to play in a three-guard rotation in Cleveland’s backcourt. All three players are capable of playing both point and off guard, so they could make for a potent rotation.

It’s interesting that the Cavs elected not to disclose the terms of the deal. I think there should be a rule that teams have to report the length and value of the contract when they announce the signing.

Fantasy Sleeper: Justin Gage

There’s one name I’d like to add to this week’s Waiver Wire Watch: Tennessee WR Justin Gage. He’s available in 74% of ESPN leagues and is an interesting pickup this week, especially in PPR leagues.

Kerry Collins threw 13 or more passes in three games last season – Week 6, Week 7 and Week 17.

In those games, Justin Gage went for 4-82, 5-48 and 7-104, for an average of 5.3 receptions for 78 yards. In the other 13 games (with Vince Young under center), Gage averaged 3.0 receptions for 40 yards and 0.2 TD. Clearly, Gage is more effective with a traditional pocket quarterback throwing to him (as most WRs would be).

He’s worth rostering in most PPR leagues and 12-team traditional leagues. Moreover, he has a very nice matchup against a suspect Bengals secondary this week. If you’re looking for WR help, you could do much worse.

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