Author: John Paulsen (Page 472 of 937)

2009 Fantasy Football Preview: DTs, DTBC

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

Defenses are tough to predict year to year, so fantasy owners are generally better off using their middle round picks to build depth at the skill positions. An emerging strategy is to utilize a Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) approach, which involves drafting two late-round defenses whose schedules combine well. The idea is to get top 5 or top 10 DT performance at a much cheaper price.

Last year, we provided three recommended DTBCs: 1) SEA/BUF, 2) BUF/NO and 3) BUF/GB.

Seahawks/Bills was our top recommendation, and while the combo didn’t set the world on fire, they performed well. Under a high performance scoring system, the duo combined for 132 fantasy points over the first 16 weeks, which outscored all but the top 6 defenses in 2008. However, when we account for the bye week fill in by adding the average points per game of DT13-DT32 (5.4 per game), DT7 (Minnesota) would have also outscored the Seahawks/Bills combination. Still, getting DT8 performance with two late round picks is nothing to sneeze at. The duo also performed well in Week 15 (9 points) and Week 16 (14 points), when it mattered most.

Our second recommendation (and also the Footballguys’ recommendation, one of the first sites – if not the first – to outline this approach) was the Bills/Saints. Unfortunately, this combo did not perform well, posting 112 points over 16 weeks, mostly due to the Saints’ struggles. The duo would have finished the season as DT15, which is pretty bad considering that the Bills alone finished DT17.

Our final recommendation – Packers/Bills – posted 144 points, which would have been good for DT5 in 2008. This duo didn’t perform particularly well in the playoffs, scoring just 10 points over the last three games, but on the whole, this was a terrific DTBC last year.

Looking ahead to this season, Footballguys recommends a Cardinals/Packers combo, and while it certainly looks like a good one, we have another that we’d recommend first. FBG factors for home/away advantage/disadvantage, but they only go so far. Two years ago, we looked at home/away as it relates to DTBC, and found that middling defenses (ranked #6-#25) scored at a 31% better clip when playing at home. In the 2008 season, that number fell to 7%. This is a much smaller impact, but still significant.

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LeBron stands by his decision not to shake hands with the Magic

Per ESPN…

“The media, your … job don’t start until ours’ finish. You guys can’t report and write you guys’ story until we take a shower, until we come out and sit on the podium. That’s the only thing I apologize for. As far as shaking hands, it’s something that is not done in the NBA. If it was something like tennis, after tennis, you play, you win, you lose, you go to the center and shake hands, it happens every game in tennis.”

“In basketball, you look at 82 regular-season games, it’s easy, guys are gonna shake hands, the fact that [I didn’t] do the media [session], I think that’s why [the story] was all blown up, and I apologize for that, but I will not apologize for shaking nobody’s hand,” he said. “You never accept losing, ever.”

When the reporter reminded James that most players usually shake hands at the end of a playoff series, James bristled again. “No you don’t, no you don’t,” he responded.

After a few more seconds of back and forth, James continued to try to explain his position. “Teamwork has nothing to do with shaking hands,” James said. “I’m not a poor sport at all. You can ask anyone that knows me, I’m not a poor sport at all. Who brought up the rule that shaking hands, that’s what you’re supposed to do? No one shakes hands at the end of series all the time. No one does that. No one does that at all.”

Sigh.

Related content: What LeBron really meant in his first post-playoff interview

The state of the Knicks

ESPN’s Chad Ford wrote a good article [Insider subscription required] about how the Knicks’ rebuilding plan has shaped up thus far.

They successfully shed Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford, Zach Randolph and Jerome James. But Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries are still on the roster, and their contracts will eat up cap space in 2010. Surprisingly GM Donnie Walsh passed up a chance to trade Jeffries for Kenny Thomas’s expiring contract at the trade deadline. I have no idea why he would do that.

The Knicks also did a great job of wooing Mike D’Antoni to New York. Players love to play in his up-tempo system and he has a number of connections to NBA stars given his stint as assistant coach for Team USA.

But Ford writes that “phase 3” of the plan has hit a few snags:

The plan was to restock the Knicks’ talent pool via the draft. Rookies have low salaries and high upside, and given the Knicks’ lack of talent the team hoped it could strike gold once or twice in the draft. While it’s still very early, things haven’t gone according to plan so far. The Knicks’ top targets the past two years have been off the draft board when they drafted.

In 2008, their two favorites — Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo — were gone, so they settled for Danilo Gallinari. While Gallinari showed enormous promise in Europe, he hurt his back in the summer league and played sparingly for the Knicks in his rookie season while he tried to rehab. Meanwhile, the Knicks passed on several prospects in the ’08 draft — like Brook Lopez, Eric Gordon and Anthony Randolph — who look like potential stars down the road.

In 2009, Walsh and D’Antoni had their hearts set on Davidson shooting star Stephen Curry. However, the Warriors took him one place ahead of the Knicks, who settled on Arizona forward Jordan Hill. While Hill has upside, too, he’s closer to Dale Davis than Amare Stoudemire.

And what about 2010? In 2005, Isiah agreed to send that first-round pick to Phoenix as part of the Marbury trade. The Suns then traded it to Utah. There are no protections left on the pick. It’s gone.

Isn’t it a little ironic that the Knicks are struggling at the one thing (finding talent in the draft) that Isiah Thomas was good at? Gallinari may still turn out to be a player, but I’m sure Knicks fans would trade him for any number of players that the team passed up. Ford mentioned Lopez, Gordon and Randolph, but what about D.J. Augustin or Jason Thompson?

While I like Jordan Hill, it seems a little counter intuitive to draft a power forward when you already have David Lee on the roster and are potentially targeting Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire next summer. However, the Knicks probably view Bosh and Stoudemire as potential centers in D’Antoni’s system.

To draft Hill, the Knicks passed up Brandon Jennings, who turned in a very good summer league performance for the Bucks and has the kind of speed, quickness and vision to be a nightmare on the fast break. The team has been flirting with Ramon Sessions (also of the Bucks), but has yet to come to terms on a deal even though Milwaukee put themselves in a tough position to match any offer greater than $2 or $3 million per season. As it stands, the Knicks don’t have a point guard to run D’Antoni’s system.

And, as Ford writes, the Knicks’ plans have soured with the economy. If they are able to move both Jeffries and Curry, they would have enough to sign two max-contract players, but even then, it would be tough to fill out the roster with the limited funds available. It’s looking more and more that the Knicks aren’t going to have the talent to attract LeBron James or Dwyane Wade. Forgetting about D’Antoni and Madision Square Garden for a moment, wouldn’t LeBron and Wade, assuming they change teams, rather play in Brooklyn with Devin Harris and Brook Lopez?

Rick Pitino paid for mistress’s abortion

Per ESPN…

Louisville coach Rick Pitino told police that he had consensual sex with and paid for an abortion for the woman who has been charged with trying to extort him, the Louisville Courier-Journal reported on Tuesday.

Karen Cunagin Sypher was federally charged in April with demanding cars, tuition for her children and finally $10 million. Police interviewed Pitino, who is married, regarding the incident last month, and according to the newspaper, he said that he gave the woman $3,000 to have an abortion.

Police records obtained by the Courier-Journal show that Pitino said he had sex with the then Karen Cunagin at a Louisville restaurant where he had been drinking on Aug. 1, 2003. He denied Cunagin Sypher’s allegations that he raped her at the restaurant and then again later at a different location.

A couple of weeks later, Cunagin Sypher called Pitino and told him she was pregnant.

They arranged to meet at the condominium of Louisville strength coach Tim Sypher, whom she did not know at that time but would later marry.

Sypher and Cunagin Sypher are now estranged and divorce proceedings have begun.

Regarding the alleged rape…

In one of her interviews, Cunagin Sypher did not disclose that there was a witness to the event at the restaurant, Vinnie Tatum, an executive assistant to Pitino. According to Abbott’s report, Tatum said he didn’t see what happened but heard “only the sounds of two people that seemed to be enjoying themselves during a sexual encounter.”

Pitino does not plan to take a leave of absence from coaching at Louisville.

2009 Fantasy Football Preview: WRs

All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

As more and more leagues have tweaked their rules to try to even out the importance of other positions with respect to running backs, wide receivers have become increasingly valuable in the last few years. In leagues that award one point per reception, it’s a completely legitimate strategy to draft a WR in the back half of the first round. In fact, after the top five or six PPR backs – Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, LaDainian Tomlinson and Frank Gore – are off the board, we wouldn’t snicker at someone who decided to pull the trigger on Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson instead of going choosing a player from the second tier of RBs. (If you’re wondering about Michael Turner, we love the guy, but he isn’t going to catch any passes and it doesn’t look like he’ll approach 376 carries again this season.)

Wide receivers are a little dicey because of the inconsistency that is intrinsic to the position. WRs have to depend on plays being called for them and on their QB to deliver the ball. There’s a better chance that a top RB will get his 20 touches (handoffs, dump offs) than there is that a top WR will get his 7-8 catches. As an example, last year’s top RB, Matt Forte, only had one game where he scored fewer than 14 fantasy points, and that was in Week 17, when it didn’t really matter. Conversely, the top WR, Andre Johnson, had four games where he scored fewer than 10 fantasy points (including Week 16, when it really mattered).

This year there appear to be a group of 12 stud fantasy wideouts: Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, Steve Smith, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe and Marques Colston. These are proven players that are in stable situations, or saw their situations improve over the summer (i.e. Matt Cassel in for Tyler Thigpen is an upgrade for Bowe). Anyone not on this list changed teams (T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Laveranues Coles), had a downgrade at QB (Brandon Marshall, Jerricho Cotchery), has an attitude problem (Braylon Edwards, Chad Ocho Cinco), or some combination of all three (Terrell Owens).

This, coupled with the relative depth at the RB position – there are a number of backs going in rounds 3-5 that are good bets to crack the top 20 or top 15 – makes this a year when drafting a WR or two in the first three rounds a pretty compelling strategy. Would it be better to have Steve Slaton, Brian Westbrook and Terrell Owens or Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne and Ronnie Brown? We’d feel better about that second group.

Regardless, it’s always good to have a few guys targeted in those middle rounds (5-9) so that you can build depth and maybe even find a guy that develops into a starter-caliber WR. There is a tendency now to always look young at wideout, and this is causing some proven veterans to slip further than they should.

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