Author: John Paulsen (Page 469 of 937)

      Will the ‘Curse of 370’ slow Turner down?

      August 19, 2009 /

      Michael Turner carried the ball 376 times last season, which is a bad omen if you believe in the “Curse of 370.”

      The stat was “discovered” by Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz in 2004.

      The “370 Curse” has reared its head in the Falcons locker room before.

      Running backs who rush for more than 370 carries in a season will either have a significant decline or get hurt the following season. Only one running back, Eric Dickerson, has been able to beat the curse.

      After Jamal Anderson powered the Falcons to the Super Bowl with 410 carries in 1998, he suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in 1999 and was never the same.

      Gerald Riggs ran for 1,719 yards on 397 carries in 1985. He followed up that season with 1,327 yards on 343 carries but although he played five more seasons, he never eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark again.

      Some of the latest players to succumb the curse include Seattle’s Shaun Alexander, Kansas City’s Larry Johnson, Tennessee’s Eddie George and Miami’s Ricky Williams.

      For their part, the Falcons don’t believe Turner was overused, and when they need to run the ball, they’re going to call Turner’s number.

      I like Turner this year, but I don’t think he’s going to rack up 370+ carries again this season. Assuming he doesn’t get injured, I expect him to carry the ball 320-350 times. He’s not a big part of the Falcons’ passing game, so that hurts his fantasy stock in PPR leagues.

      It’s going to be interesting to see if Turner can avoid the “curse” this season.

      Fantasy Football, NFL

      Nate Robinson arrested for driving with a suspended license

      August 19, 2009 /

      Per the NY Post…

      Pint-sized New York Knicks player Nate Robinson came up short last night in The Bronx, where cops busted the slam-dunk expert for driving with a suspended license, authorities said.

      Robinson — whose license was suspended in June for the fifth time — was driving himself and newly drafted New Jersey Nets player Terrence Williams when cops stopped him in The Bronx in the late afternoon.

      Robinson tweeted just after he was pulled over, saying that he thought that he was stopped because his windows were too dark. After the arrest, he had this to say…

      “To All My Tweeps: I was irresponsible earlier when I tweeted about being pulled over,” Robinson wrote afterwards. “I thought it was for tinted windows but turns out I had an unpaid ticket and I wasn’t aware the ticket had been mailed to my Seattle address … I apologize to the Knicks, my family and fans.”

      Tsk, tsk, tsk…

      Not a smart move for a restricted free agent hoping to sign a one-year deal with the Knicks and enter unrestricted free agency next summer. I doubt this will impact the Knicks’ decision, but you never know.

      NBA, News, Rumors & Gossip

      Erin Andrews poses for GQ

      August 18, 2009 /

      It’s not quite the photo spread that her fans around the country were hoping for, but Erin Andrews posed for some shots and answered a few questions in GQ.

      She’s ready to bolt Atlanta, where she lives, for New York City. “Jesse Palmer always says to me, ‘What are you waiting for?’ ” says Andrews, 31, referring to her on-air colleague. “I have no ties to Atlanta, so ideally, I’ll get there ASAP and start playing.”

      Home prices in Atlanta just dropped 5% across the board.

      Women

      What is Favre’s fantasy value?

      August 18, 2009 /

      In case you missed it, pending a physical, Brett Favre is about to become a Viking.

      People are justifiably interested in talking about the on-again/off-again Brett Favre saga, and how the Vikings bent over backwards, allowing #4 to skip training camp because…well…he doesn’t like to practice.

      But what about his fantasy impact?

      First things first, the Vikings have one of the easiest schedules for a QB. Whether it’s Brett Favre, Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson, the Minnesota QB is only projected to have one tough matchup all season.

      Fans around the country have been dumping on Favre since the Jets’ December swoon last season, but let’s not forget the fact that he was in the MVP conversation as late as Week 12 after he led the Jets to a 34-13 victory over the then-undefeated Titans in Nashville. At that point, Favre was averaging 224 yards, 1.8 TD and 1.2 INT per game. Had he continued on that pace, he would have finished as fantasy’s #9 QB, ahead of David Garrard and behind Matt Cassel. Somewhere around this point in the season, Favre tore his biceps which led to his late-season swoon. Even so, he finished as QB13.

      In early July, when Favre-to-Minnesota looked inevitable, he was going in the 12th round. I suspect that he might go a bit earlier (maybe the 9th-11th) now that it’s (almost) official. This puts him the QB15-QB20 range. I’d probably take him after Cassel/Hasselbeck/E. Manning/Garrard but before Orton/Edwards/Flacco/Delhomme.

      Favre is still starter-caliber when healthy, but his age makes him better suited to be part of a QBBC. With that in mind, I re-ran the QBBC numbers, assuming that Favre would score 251 fantasy points (in a high performance scoring system) figuring that last year’s total (which included five games with a torn biceps) would be a fair estimate of his 2009 production. It turns out that Favre’s schedule combines well with Shaun Hill (#14 combo), Garrard (#20) and Cassel (#27), so if you’re trying to get one of my recommended QBBC combos — Cassel/Hill, Garrard/Hill or Garrard/Cassel — Favre works with all three of those QBs. Put him alongside Trent Edwards on your list of backup options if you miss out on one of those players.

      As for the rest of the Vikings, the threat of Favre in the passing game should boost the value of Adrian Peterson, while his experience and talent should help Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe.

      If you do draft Favre, be sure to grab Sage Rosenfels as his backup. Prior to the Favre signing, Rosenfels was leading the QB competition and has the best chance of being Favre’s backup.

      Fantasy Football

      This dude is really, really high on Percy Harvin

      August 17, 2009 /

      I didn’t put him on my list of late-round sleepers, but after reading this glowing piece on Rotoworld, maybe I should.

      If Harvin’s special talent is undeniable, then why is his ADP still hovering around the late eighth to early ninth round? A long-accepted maxim in fantasy football circles states that rookie wide receivers will always be over-valued on draft day because the production fails to match the hype. Randy Moss and Anquan Boldin serve to remind us that they’re the exception, not the rule. Receivers take too long to get acclimated to their new offenses, coaches and quarterbacks don’t quite trust them, and they simply don’t touch the ball enough to accrue fantasy value.

      But what if a rookie receiver came along who already had the trust of his coaches, immediately showed a high football IQ, was already incorporated as a major component of the offense, and was set to touch the ball 10-12 times per game? We’re talking about not only a unique talent, but a receiver playing a newly invented position: the Percy Position.

      Early indications are that the Vikings will use Harvin in much the same that Florida did. As soon as Harvin was drafted, head coach Brad Childress called offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and asked, “Hey, where’s the list?” The list contained 20-to-30 plays – including 10-to-15 new plays – specifically designed to get the ball in Harvin’s hands in space. As the Vikings installed the Percy Plays during OTAs, Harvin stole the show. “I think the first thing I thought about was really the same feelings the first time we handed Adrian Peterson the ball,” Childress said. “When you see it with your own eyes … the thing that came to mind right away was, Wow.”

      If he does average 10-12 touches a game, he’s going to be fantasy starter worthy. Figure six carries at about five yards a carry and four catches at about 8-10 yards per catch, and Harvin has about 62-70 total yards (6.2-7.0 points), four catches (4.0 points) and maybe a TD. Other than Adrian Peterson, the Vikings don’t have too many playmakers on offense, so it’s reasonable to think that Childress will get Harvin the ball early and often. This might be a case where it’s okay to draft a rookie WR in the middle rounds.

      Fantasy Football

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