Here’s Part 1, in case you missed it.

Now that we’ve narrowed the field from 65 to 32, it’s time to tackle the second round and beyond. When filling out your bracket, it’s not a bad idea to start with your Final Four picks and work backwards. I looked at the last six Final Fours to get an idea of the profile of a FF team and discovered the following:

22 of 24 FF teams (92%) finished the tournament with adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies (i.e. points per possession adjusted for strength of schedule) in the top 30 (LSU ’06, George Mason ’06).
Here’s the list of teams that qualify heading into 2010: Duke, Kansas, Ohio St., Syracuse, West Virginia, BYU, Wisconsin, K-State, Kentucky and Texas. I’ll include Georgetown as well since their ranked #33 in defensive efficiency and could climb into the top 30 by tourney’s end.

22 of 24 FF teams (92%) finished the tournament with a Pythagorean win ranking in the top 10 (#23 George Mason ’06, #14 Villanova ’09).
Win percent can rise about a hundredth of a point over the course of the tournament. (Last year, Michigan State started at .943 and finished at .954 and Villanova went from .929 to .938.) So looking at the Pomeroy numbers, we should be looking at the top 12 teams — Duke, Kansas, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Syracuse, Kentucky, BYU, WVU, K-State, Maryland, Georgetown and Baylor — as potential FF teams.

21 of 24 FF teams were in top 7 in either offensive or defensive efficiency (George Mason ’06, Michigan State ’09, Villanova ’09).
Here are the teams that are in the top 10 in either efficiency: Duke (both), Kansas (both), California (off), Notre Dame (off), Baylor (off), Maryland (off), Ohio St. (off), Villanova (off), Syracuse (off), Georgetown (off), Florida State (def), Temple (def), Purdue (def), Wisconsin (def), Tennessee (def), Clemson (def) and Kentucky (def). I’d include WVU (11th – off) and BYU (12th – off) as well because they would likely finish in the top 7 with a FF run.

What does this all mean? Hell if I know. But there are nine teams that satisfy all three of these criteria, and here’s the list: Duke, Kansas, Ohio St., Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kentucky, West Virginia, BYU and Georgetown. Our four FF teams should probably be from this group.

Seeing as Duke is the only team on the list from the South Region, we can pencil the Blue Devils through to the Final Four. (However, potential matchups with Louisville, Texas A&M and Baylor, coupled with Duke’s disappointing finishes the last few years sure make me a little nervous.)

I like Kansas to win the whole thing, so even though the Jayhawks are in a very tough bracket (including Michigan State, Maryland, Georgetown and Ohio State), they have the resume of a national champion.

In the West, BYU could present some problems for Syracuse if the two teams were to meet in Salt Lake City, but I don’t think the Cougars will make it that far. Let’s put the Orange through to the Final Four.

Lastly, in the East, Kentucky has arguably the most talent of any team in the tournament, but they are also prone to getting into dogfights away from Rupp Arena. Texas, Wisconsin, Temple and West Virginia are potential matchup problems. I’m tempted to go with WVU out of the East, but Bobby Huggins has a history of disappointing finishes when his teams go into the tourney as high seeds. Still, he does have a Final Four appearance under his belt and the Mountaineers have something to prove after being snubbed for a #1 seed despite winning the Big East Championship. West Virginia playing with a chip on its shoulder is a scary prospect indeed. Let’s go with the Mountaineers.

Four of last six overall winners were top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and the other two were #1 in offensive efficiency.
The only two teams that are top 10 in both efficiencies are Duke (1, 4) and Kansas (2, 5). I’ve watched 15-20 Duke games this year, and while I think they have enough talent, size and three-point shooting to make it to Indianapolis, I don’t see them as favorites against Kentucky, West Virginia, Kansas or Syracuse when they get there. As I said before, I like Kansas to win the whole thing. They’re a little shaky at times, but they have plenty of talent and play great on the road.

All right, so now that we have the Final Four settled, let’s go game-by-game and fill out the rest of the bracket. When a game merits discussion, I’ll discuss it. If there’s a 3+ Sagarin favorite, I’ll probably go with the chalk.

Maryland/Michigan State
These are two teams with two great coaches playing a long way from home (in Spokane). Sagarin shows Maryland as a 2.3-point favorite and Pomeroy gives the Terps a 63% of winning. But no one squeezes more out his players than Tom Izzo come tournament time. I have to go with the Spartans.

Pittsburgh/Minnesota
Sagarin actually pegs the Gophers as a 1.7-point favorite and Pomeroy gives Minnesota a 52% chance of winning. Still, this game is essentially a toss up. Location (Milwaukee) would seem to favor Minnesota, but I think fatigue will start to settle in and that will favor the Panthers. Let’s go with Pitt.

Kansas State/BYU
If you believe the numbers, BYU is really underrated. They have a statistical resume of a Final Four team in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency, but when I saw them play UNLV in the MWC semis, I wasn’t very impressed. The Cougars have four or five guys that shoot the three at a high rate and K-State is very mediocre (33%) in defending the long ball. BYU definitely is a very live dog, but Manhattan is just five hours away from OKC, so the Wildcats should have a virtual home court.

Kentucky/Texas
The numbers say this should be a close one, but I don’t know — Texas has been very mediocre lately (7-9 since mid-January) and Kentucky is hot. John Wall and Co. move on.

New Mexico/Marquette
Both Sagarin (2.2-point) and Pomeroy (60%) think that the Golden Eagles are the favorite in this matchup, but it’s basically a toss up. I’m going with the Lobos since the game is out west and there’s a decent chance that Marquette could lose it’s opening round game against Washington.

West Virginia/Missouri
This game is closer than you’d think. Sagarin pegs the Mountaineers as a 2.1-point favorite and Pomeroy puts their win pct at 62%. Neither is encouraging. All I can go on is what I’ve seen from the Mountaineers this season — efficient offense, good defense and a playmaker in Da’Sean Butler who is not afraid to take the big shot.

Complete list of second round winners: Kansas, Michigan State, Georgetown, Ohio State, Syracuse, Butler, Pittsburgh, Kansas State, Kentucky, Wisconsin, New Mexico, West Virginia, Duke, Texas A&M, Baylor and Villanova

Kansas (+8, 81%), Syracuse (+6, 68%), Kansas State (+5, 66%), West Virginia (+5, 74%) and Duke (+9, 82%) are all pretty big favorites and I have no reason to argue. Here’s a look at the other three games:

Ohio State/Georgetown
Both teams are very hot. The Buckeyes won the Big 10 tournament and were co-champs in the regular season, while the Hoyas made a strong run in the Big East Championship and lost in the title game by two to West Virginia. Sagarin shows Ohio State as a 1.2-point favorite and Pomeroy gives the Buckeyes a 57% of winning — neither is significant. Ohio State has won 17 of 20 since Evan Turner returned from injury and while G-Town has two good guards in Austin Freeman and Chris Wright, neither is big enough to handle the 6’7″ Turner on the defensive end. I’m going with Ohio State, but this looks to be a tight one.

Kentucky/Wisconsin
Sagarin gives the Wildcats the slightest (+0.03) of edges, while Pomeroy actually thinks the Badgers are the favorites (54%). This is a major contrast in styles and while I’d love to see my old coach knock off John Calipari and his band of 18- and 19-year old mercenaries, Wisconsin is going to have to play a great game to pull the upset. I have to go with Kentucky here, but I don’t have to like it.

Villanova/Baylor
Sagarin gives Baylor a 0.1-point advantage and Pomeroy thinks the Bears have a 56% chance to win the game. The Wildcats have a great group of guards, but Baylor has the personnel to match up on the perimeter (LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter) and Ekpe Udoh inside. I don’t like Villanova’s bigs and I think Udoh could control the game. Throw in the fact that Houston is only about a three-hour drive from the Baylor campus in Waco and you have the makings for an upset.

Complete list of Sweet Sixteen winners: Kansas, Ohio State, Syracuse, Kansas State, Kentucky, West Virginia, Duke, Baylor

Kansas (+5, 67%) and Duke (+6, 75%) are both pretty good-sized favorites — though I’m not confident about the Blue Devils facing Baylor in Houston — but we’ll roll with the Jayhawks and Blue Devils into the Final Four.

Syracuse/Kansas State
Sagarin pegs Syracuse as a 1.4-point favorite and Pomeroy thinks they have a 55% chance to win, so this is pretty much a toss up. In the Orange’s four losses, their opponents shot a collective 37-112 from long range, or an average of 9.3-27.0 from deep. While that’s not a great percentage, it’s not bad either. The Wildcats only make 6.7 threes per game (on 18.9 attempts). And it’s tough to prepare for Syracuse’s zone if you haven’t seen it before. (All four of Syracuse’s losses came to Big East teams.) Since I’m not sure that K-State will even make it this far (tough games with BYU and Pitt, Xavier or Minnesota are worrisome), I have to go with the Orange. After all, they fit the profile of a Final Four team.

Kentucky/West Virginia
Something about the Wildcats just bothers me. I don’t know if it’s Calipari, his team of one-and-done mercenaries or the fact that they celebrated like they had just won the game against Mississippi State when they had only forced overtime. I had a similar opinion about Memphis and they were a few free throws away from beating Kansas in ’08 (only that title win would have been vacated due to Derrick Rose’s SAT scandal). I honestly don’t know what to do with them — they have enough talent for a Final Four run, but they are shaky on the road and don’t play particularly smart. Plus, I think the Mountaineers can pack the defense in (whether it be man-to-man or zone) and force the Wildcats to hit the outside shot, which has been a problem all year. This potential matchup would be in the Carrier Dome, which would be an advantage for WVU seeing as they have played there before (though not this year). This has the makings of a brawl and I think WVU is mentally tougher right now.

Complete list of Elite Eight winners: Kansas, Syracuse, West Virginia, Duke

Kansas/Syracuse
Kansas is a pretty strong favorite (+3.8, 67%) in this matchup. The Jayhawks have six regulars who shoot better than 38% from long range, and they share the ball pretty well, so they should be able to score well against the Orange’s patented zone.

Duke/West Virginia
The Blue Devils would be the prohibitive favorite (+5.4, 72%), but I don’t feel great about having them go this far, much less pencil them into the title game. Likewise, I’m going out on a bit of a limb by picking WVU over Kentucky in the East. Duke is just 1-3 (losses to Maryland, Georgetown, Wisconsin) against the top 25, while WVU is 7-4, so while I think Duke is great at beating up on inferior competition, when they face the elite teams, they seem to struggle.

Kansas/West Virginia
Sagarin has the Jayhawks as a 5.5-point favorite and Pomeroy puts their chances of winning at 71%. I don’t think the Mountaineers will have enough left after winning the Big East Championship and this Final Four run to put away the Jayhawks. Kansas can play at a fast or slow tempo and against man-to-man or zone defense.

Random thoughts:

Level of confidence in #1 seeds: Kansas (high), Syracuse (high), Kentucky (low), Duke (low)

#2 seed that could win it all: WVU, for reasons outlined above

#3 seed with best chance to make the Final Four: Baylor, with a weak region and playing three hours from campus

#4 seed that could make a run: Wisconsin, highly efficient and up against a #1 seed (Kentucky) prone to playing in tight games

Most dangerous #5 seed: Temple, if they can survive Cornell in the first round

#7 seed that could shock the world: BYU, highly efficient both offensively and defensively, plus two games in Salt Lake to go to the Final Four

Photos from fOTOGLIF