Four spreads of note:

Jets –6 @ Broncos, 8:20PM ET, Thursday
The spread for this game has danced for three days now. It opened at Jets –5 and then dropped to 4.5. Now it’s all the way up to 6. I’d personally lay the points with New York up to 7 because I think Tim Tebow is going to have a hell of a time scoring on Rex Ryan’s defense. If he struggled three weeks ago against Detroit, then I shudder to think how he’ll fare against a pissed off New York team that New England just pounded at home. Although I don’t trust Mark Sanchez and the Jet offense as far as I can throw them, this is a perfect spot to lay the points with Ryan’s squad.

Eagles +4.5 @ Giants, 8:20PM ET
This line actually opened at Giants –3 but once word spread that Michael Vick played last week’s game with broken ribs and is now questionable for Sunday night, the spread jumped up. For betting purposes, it’s actually better if Vick does play because the line may drop back down to 3. And if that happens, jump all over the Giants, who would be a massive value. The Eagles look like they’re a team mailing it in and if they don’t feel as though they have anything to play for then they’re not going to get up for a divisional rival in November, in blustery New Jersey no less. The road team usually prospers in this matchup but now might be the perfect time to kick the Eagles while they’re down. (As long as the line doesn’t keep going up, that is. (At some point the Giants stop being a value, even against a fading Philadelphia team.)

Titans +6 @ Falcons, 4:15PM ET
This line is way too high. The Titans enter the week with an extra spring in their step following the news of Matt Schaub’s season-ending surgery. They have a perfect opportunity to catch the Texans in the AFC South if they play well and Houston folds with Matt Leinart under center. The Falcons, meanwhile, are coming off a loss in which their head coach Mike Smith blew it by going for it on fourth-and-1 from their own 29-yard-line in overtime. (Which set the Saints up with primo field position.) Atlanta is a conservative team by nature and with Chris Johnson heating up the Titans should be able to keep this game close throughout.

Bengals +7 @ Ravens, 1:00PM ET
If you can figure out how the Ravens perceive the Bengals then this line should be easy to figure out. Baltimore has been playing up (Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Houston) and down (Jacksonville, Seattle, Arizona) to its competition all year. So if the Ravens view the Bengals as a team that is standing in their way of potentially winning the AFC North, then I would lay the 7 points. But if they view Cincinnati as a wounded (top corner Leon Hall is out for the year and star receiver A.J. Green is banged up) poser that didn’t have what it takes to beat Pittsburgh last week, then I’d take the points with the Bengals. Or better yet? Just lay off this game completely. I personally think that 7 points is a lot in a divisional game but if the Ravens are ticked off from their loss last week to Seattle then they could roll.

2011 NFL Week 11 Point Spreads:

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Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- It’s not surprising that the Giants gave the Patriots all they could handle today in Foxboro. It’s not even all that surprising that New York won 24-20 despite the fact that New England never losses consecutive games under Bill Belichick. For whatever reason, Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning have Belichick and Tom Brady’s numbers. But if you were asked before the game which quarterback would pull off a great fourth-quarter comeback to lead their team to victory, most people wouldn’t have said Eli. (Even when you consider how many fourth-quarter comebacks the G-Men have already tallied this season.) People scoffed when Manning said he considered himself to be in the same class as Brady back in August. Whether you think he does or not, consider that he has the best fourth-quarter passer rating of any quarterback in the league this season and that his Giants are 6-2 when everyone thought they’d be looking up at the Eagles in the NFC East standings right about now. He’s also been the winning quarterback the past two times the Giants have played the Patriots, so the whole “does Eli belong in Brady’s class” conversation is rather moot at the moment. It’s all about wins, losses, and…nope, that’s about it.

- The Chiefs were due for a letdown. While they had won four in a row heading into Week 9, they seriously lack offensive explosion now that Jamaal Charles is out for the year and they would have lost to the Chargers on Monday night had Philip Rivers not decided to break out his best Rex Grossman impression late in the fourth quarter. That said, I don’t think anyone woke up this morning thinking, “Yeah, today is the day the Dolphins get their first win behind Matt Moore’s three touchdown passes and stingy defensive play.” I actually thought Miami would keep things close but 31-3? For the first time all season Tony Sparano will get a good night of sleep.

- The Rams pulled off the upset of the year last Sunday when they knocked off the Saints at home. So naturally they went out today and lost to an Arizona Cardinals team that started John Skelton at quarterback. St. Louis was given every opportunity to notch back-to-back victories for the first time all season and it screwed the pooch instead. The special teams unit was an absolute disaster in the fourth quarter and in overtime, as the Rams had a game-winning field goal blocked and missed four tackles on Patrick Peterson’s electrifying 99-yard punt return in OT. When his team played that brutal schedule to open the year, at least Steve Spagnuolo had an excuse for losing. There’s no excuse to lose to the John Skelton-led Cardinals when the game was practically in the bag.

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Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- The Giants and Eli Manning had the game I thought they would last week in Arizona. Manning threw three touchdown passes but he was also picked off three times as the Giants started slow and finished poorly. Of course, Eli wasn’t the only reason the G-Men dropped a game they simply had no business losing. Their defense couldn’t stop a Seattle offense that has suddenly started to hit their stride after staging a dramatic comeback in the second half last week against Atlanta. Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst and Marshawn Lynch tuned up New York’s defense for 424 total yards. What’s most remarkable about the Seahawks’ 36-25 win is that the Hawks fumbled twice in New York territory. This could have been an even bigger blow out.

- The Steelers winning a home game against the Titans hardly constitutes a “Didn’t see that coming” moment. That said, this was a Pittsburgh team that didn’t have Casey Hampton, James Harrison, Aaron Smith, Chris Kemoeatu, or a fully healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Considering how good Tennessee’s defense has been this season, it was rather surprising to see Big Ben (who threw five touchdown passes) and Pittsburgh bully the Titans for four quarters. It appears those claims about the Steelers being finished were greatly exaggerated.

- Much like the Steelers’ win over the Titans, it’s hardly surprising that the Raiders traveled to Houston and beat the Texans. This isn’t the same Oakland team that was pathetic four or five years ago. That said, Al Davis just passed away yesterday and the Raiders took on a solid Texans team that just bullied Pittsburgh a week ago. Nobody would have been surprised if the Raiders’ hearts weren’t in it and left Houston without a win. But they played hard for four quarters, shut down Arian Foster, and won a huge road game to get to 3-2 on the season. Granted, Matt Schaub did throw an inexcusable interception at the end of the game and the Texans were without Andre Johnson. But “Just win baby?” Absolutely.

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Oh, how I crashed and burned in glorious fashion last Sunday.

I picked the Cowboys, who coughed up a 27-3 lead to the Lions.

I had the Bears, who were covering with just over a minute to play before they allowed Cam “Backdoor Cover” Newton to waltz right down the field and score a meaningless touchdown on a fourth-and-goal with just seconds remaining.

I had the Cardinals, who were beating the Giants with five minutes remaining in the game before losing and finally, I had the Broncos, who were promptly hammered by the Packers in Green Bay.

For those scoring at home, that was an 0-4 Sunday, which runs my season record to 5-11 on the year. If you’re not cashing these puppies in, then I highly recommend you start doing so. The pickings don’t get any better than this…

Eagles @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
The Eagles’ offensive line, secondary, and run defense have struggled mightily over the last three weeks and yet Michael Vick and Co. still find themselves as 3-point road favorites in Buffalo. What a slap in the face to a good Bills team, which got a lesson in humility last Sunday in Cincinnati. Buffalo is a better team right now than Philadelphia, plain and simple. So I’ll gladly take the points with the home dog.
THE PICK: BILLS +3

Seahawks @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
I’m going to eat a lot of chalk today but I don’t really mind. The Seahawks may have played well in the second half last week against the Falcons, but Atlanta inexplicably went to a shell defense in the third quarter and completely took its foot off the gas offensively. That allowed Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks to get back into a game they should have been blown out in. I thought Eli Manning and the Giants would suffer a letdown last Sunday in Arizona and for three and a half quarters, it looked like they would. But his New York team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and I like the G-Men to roll against a Seattle squad that is brutal on the road.
THE PICK: GIANTS –9.5.

Jets @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
I’m highly aware that the Jets went into Foxboro during the playoffs last season and beat the Patriots in impressive fashion. But Mark Sanchez and the Jets also have mystical powers that apparently only work in the postseason. During the regular season, Sanchez is liable to throw for 76 yards and two interceptions in any given game. New York can’t run the ball and has major issues on offense. If the Patriots get up big, don’t expect Bill Belichick to let up after his team was embarrassed in Buffalo after squandering a 21-0 first half lead. I think this game will be more like the 45-3 thrashing the Pats served the Jets in the regular season last year than the New England’s home playoff loss a few months later.
THE PICK: PATRIOTS –7.5.

Packers @ Falcons, 8:20PM ET
This the second big mismatch on the Week 5 schedule behind Jets-Patriots. Forget the fact that the Packers went into Atlanta last year and drubbed the Falcons 48-21 in the playoffs. Green Bay is simply leaps and bounds better than Atlanta at this point in the 2011 season. The Falcons have major issues along the offensive line and Aaron Rodgers will feast on the likes of Dunta Robinson in the passing game. I think it was a bad omen that the Falcons blew a 27-7 lead last week in Seattle. They may have won the game but the coaching staff gets too predictable and too conservative once this team builds a lead. Fortunately for Mike Smith and Co, the Falcons probably won’t have too many leads come Sunday night.
THE PICK: PACKERS –5.5

Last Week: 0-4
Season: 5-11

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a list of Sunday’s NFL Odds.

Titans @ Steelers, 1:00PM ET
Want to know how dire the Steelers’ situation is along their offensive line? They just signed a guy (Max Starks) whom they released in preseason. Ben Roethlisberger’s bruised foot was in a walking boot as he watched practice on Wednesday and the Titans have a couple of linemen in Karl Klug and Derrick Morgan that can get after the passer. Don’t be shocked if we see an upset in Pittsburgh this Sunday.

Eagles @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
Michael Vick says that the “Dream Team” moniker is now dead in Philadelphia and that the Eagles no longer want to be called that. Seeing as how they’re 1-3 and taking on a Buffalo team that has been unbeatable at home this year, I don’t think anyone will have a problem obliging Mikey’s request.

Saints @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
Don’t be surprised if Cam Newton has another big day passing this week. The Panthers figure to be trailing in this one and the Saints have struggled defensively this year. Will Smith and Sedrick Ellis are about the only linemen who have helped generate a pass rush, while guys like Roman Harper have struggled in coverage. As expected, all three linebackers have had their issues as well. Jonathan Casillas has two sacks and four QB pressures, but he has struggled in coverage while Jonathan Vilma has been suspect against the run. There’s certainly holes in New Orleans’ defense that Newton can take advantage of.

Seahawks @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
Assuming the Giants win this week, who would have thought that their only loss this season would be against the Redskins in Week 1 and not at Philadelphia in Week 3? Give Tom Coughlin’s squad credit. They could have easily lost last Sunday in Arizona and looked like they would with about five minutes left to play. But they persevered and now have what should be an easy win this Sunday. Tarvaris Jackson played well against Atlanta’s soft zone last weekend but the Seahawks are a completely different team on the road than they are at home. New York should roll.

Bengals @ Jaguars, 1:00PM ET
Andy Dalton has certainly had his ups and downs through the first quarter of the season, but the Bengals have to be pleased with the way he’s battled. With the Bills up 17-3 last Sunday, Dalton and Cincinnati could have shut it down in the second half, especially considering how inept the offense looked versus the 49ers the week before. But they picked up a huge win and now go on the road to face a Jaguars team that has struggled with rookie Blaine Gabbert under center. It’s pretty remarkable to think that he Bengals could be 3-2 after this week when you consider how messy their offseason was.

Cardinals @ Vikings, 1:00PM ET
Is Leslie Frazier starting to warm up to the idea of starting Christian Ponder? Here was Frazier’s comments on the rookie this Wednesday: “He’s working hard in practice, doing the same thing in meetings. We feel like he’s progressing well and we’re optimistic, that, when his time comes, he’ll be ready to go.” A couple of more brutal showings by Donovan McNabb and Ponder’s time might be coming soon.

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Five spreads of note:

Packers –5.5 @ Falcons, 8:20PM ET Sunday
The Packers return to the Georgia Dome roughly eight months after Aaron Rodgers and Co. burned it down back in January (metaphorically, of course). This line opened at 4 but is already up to 5.5 as public bettors continue to hammer the Packers, who beat the Falcons 48-21 in Atlanta during the Divisional Round playoffs last season. It’ll be interesting to see how far this spread climbs before the sharps come in and start pushing it back down. There’s no reason to believe the Falcons can hang with the Packers with the way they’ve looked in the early going, but at some point they become a value as a home dog. Will the line reach 6.5 or even 7 points?

Bears +5.5 @ Lions, 8:30PM ET, Monday
This is one of the more intriguing lines on the Week 5 schedule because it should get plenty of two-way action for sports books. The public is swarming to get a taste of that Lions Kool-Aid, but this spread is rather high for a divisional game. The Bears didn’t play well in their only road test of the season (Week 2 at New Orleans), but they’re an attractive play at 5.5. In fact, the opening line was Detroit –6 so the spread is already moving in Chicago’s direction.

Jets +9.5 @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
Even though the Jets have looked awful the last two weeks, the road team is 18-7-1 against the number in the last 26 meetings between these two teams and you know Rex Ryan’s squad will be hyped for this one. The Patriots steamrolled the Jets 45-3 in New England last season but Gang Green returned the favor with a 28-21 victory in New York one month later. This is always an intriguing matchup and it’ll be interesting to see if the public pushes the line up to the key number of 10 or if sports books will leave the spread at 9.5 to entice plenty of two-way action.

Saints –6.5 @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
This line is intriguing because of three reasons: 1) Cam Newton, 2) it’s a divisional game and 3) the Saints tend to play things more conservatively on the road than they do at home. While they covered last week against the Jaguars, they certainly didn’t blow them out. Now they go on the road for the second straight week to play a Carolina team that has covered the spread the past three weeks. The public seems to be backing New Orleans but Newton and the Panthers could certainly keep things close, especially when you consider that the Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Carolina.

Chiefs +1.5 @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
What do you do with this game? The Colts are 0-4 but are coming off two-straight covers despite having Curtis Painter under center. Assuming Painter holds onto the starting job (he should with how abysmal Kerry Collins looked in the early going), the Colts might be the play at –1.5. That said, the Chiefs finally got their offense going last week in Minnesota and maybe their situation has finally stabilized. With the spread highly unlikely to climb to the key number of 3, it might be best to stay far, far away from this one.

All Week 5 Point Spreads:

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Oddsmakers have released the point spreads for Week 1 in the NFL. Along with a complete list of odds, here are a couple of games that jump out at me as we head into the opening week in the NFL.

Saints @ Packers, 8:30PM ET, Thursday
The action gets kicked off this season with a matchup between the 2010 Super Bowl champion Packers and the 2009 Super Bowl champion Saints. I envision a rebound year for Drew Brees and the Saints, who added solid depth on both sides of the ball this offseason and drafted a running back in Mark Ingram that could help restore balance to Sean Payton’s offense. The Packers, meanwhile, are coming off a Super Bowl win and will have tight end Jermichael Finley and running back Ryan Grant back from injury. Aaron Rodgers is an absolute stud and should be talked about among the league’s elite. In terms of the odds, the total is set high for a reason but I see this game falling under. In four of the last five season openers the total has fallen under and even though both of these teams can both light up the scoreboard, I don’t think we’ll see either of the Saints or Packers’ best offensive efforts this Thursday. Don’t forget it was a short offseason in terms of season preparation.
ODDS: PACKERS –4 (47)

Colts @ Texans, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
Personally, I think this is the Texans’ year. They went a long way to improve their horrendous defense by hiring Wade Phillips as coordinator and signing free agent corner Jonathan Joseph. Phillips has a knack for turning teams around quickly and I don’t think Houston will be an aberration. Peyton Manning will likely miss Week 1 and that means Kerry Collins will get the nod. If Manning is healthy the Colts are liable to go 12-4 but without him, they could just as easily fall to 4-12. The Texans usually start off the season on fire before fading in the second half. Maybe this year will be different. I see them getting off to a good start and without Manning, this one could be a blowout.
ODDS: TEXANS –9 (45.5)

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Braylon Edwards is 6’3” and 214 pounds, he’s only 28 and has been to one Pro Bowl after racking up 80 receptions for 1,2890 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2007.

Given those factoids, the current free agent should be in camp right now after signing a multi-year contract with one of the many wide receiver-needy teams in the NFL. But because he continues to prove that a career in football isn’t among his top priorities, he remains in NFL purgatory. And given this latest incident, he may be there a while.

According to the Birmingham Eccentric, Edwards could end up facing legal trouble for his role in a fight that broke out at a bar in Michigan over the weekend. Apparently two members of his entourage assaulted bar employees with knives and forks and while Edwards wasn’t arrested, two of his cousins have been charged with felonious assault. The bar also claims that Edwards was involved and may have been an instigator.

That sound you just heard was the incineration of any multi-year deal that Edwards was hoping to land this offseason.

Now, let me cover my basis and be diplomatic for a second. Edwards wasn’t arrested, nor was he charged with committing a crime. And in this country, you’re thankfully innocent until proven guilty. Thus, Edwards is innocent at the moment.

But this is also the same man who is already on probation in Cleveland after he reportedly punched a local party promoter in the face outside of a nightclub in 2009. In September of last year, Edwards was also arrested on a drunken driving charge in New York, so there’s a history here. At this point, he doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt from anyone.

Teams were already concerned about his stone hands and his questionable desire. If he winds up being suspended because of this latest incident, Edwards will be lucky to accept a one-year deal at the veteran minimum. In fact, even if he isn’t charged with anything, this incident may be enough for teams to avoid him completely.

I think it’s telling that the Jets were more willing to sign Plaxico Burress, who is five years older and is fresh out of prison, than Edwards this offseason.

Update: Edwards has signed a one-year deal with the 49ers, but the contract is only for $1 million. He will receive $3.5 million if he catches 90 passes and makes the Pro Bowl.

Again, considering he’s only 28 and has a Pro Bowl under his belt, $1 million is chump change. He done screwed up.

Santonio Holmes will get $24 million guaranteed under his new deal over five years. This is a good move for the Jets, as Holmes makes Mark Sanchez a better quarterback. Who knows what they’ll do with Braylon Edwards, but he’s an afterthought.

Sources have told Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News that the Jets in fact of interest in free agent Randy Moss.

Last month, there were conflicting reports over Gang Green’s level of interest in Moss. Earlier this month, Pro Football Talk reported that it heard rumblings that the 34-year-old wide receiver was on the Jets’ radar.

The Jets will have more than a cursory interest in Moss if Holmes or Edwards doesn’t return, per sources.

Rex Ryan firmly believes that Moss is still a viable vertical threat. Even in the twilight of his career, he creates matchup problems. In other words, opposing defensive coordinators still game plan to stop him. Moss is apparently as motivated to prove doubters wrong as he was when the Patriots rescued him from the Raiders four years ago.

Moss may not ultimately be a Jet, but Gang Green is certainly interested in him if it loses Holmes or Edwards.

I don’t doubt that Moss can still play at a high level, even given the disastrous ending to his 2010 campaign. If the guy is motivated and focused, he can still be a playmaker in any offense.

The problem is whether or not he’ll be motivated and focused. And more specifically, whether he’ll be motivated by more than money and focused on helping his team win. He was only motivated by money in New England last year and he clearly wasn’t focused after he was traded to Minnesota and picked up by Tennessee.

This guy flat out disappeared for two years in Oakland only to resurrect from the dead to post 98 receptions for 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns in New England during the 2007 season. So even at this stage in his career, the question isn’t whether or not he can play. He can. The question is whether or not he’ll be motivated enough to be worth an investment, which is something that Rex Ryan (a great motivator) and the Jets will have to figure before they eventually pursue him. (Assuming of course that the above report is accurate and they are interested.)