Around this time last year, I tried to estimate the kind of contracts the big name players from the class of 2004 and 2005 would sign, and here’s how I fared:

All in all, I think I did a pretty good job. Of the 12 players that signed a contract last summer, I correctly predicted the range for seven and was within $1.5 million for the other five. Granted, I underestimated what the Lakers would give Vujacic, but I find him so annoying that I have a tough time objectively determining his worth. (Though it should be noted that he didn’t do anything this season to justify $5.0 million per season.)

This year, I’m going to list the top names from the class of ’06 to try to determine what kind of extension they’ll get if their current teams choose to lock them up this summer instead of letting them hit restricted free agency in 2010. (I’ll tackle the restricted free agents of the class of ’05 in my free agency preview, which will run on 6/29.)

Due to the economy and the unwillingness of most owners to spend, the summer of 2009 promises to be tougher for free agents than years past, so we may see a few players stubbornness get the best of them. One executive predicted a “nuclear winter” of sorts, so at the very least, it will be interesting.

So here are the top players from the class of ’06 and my best estimate of the kind of money they’ll command. I’ll list their age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER), along with a few comparables.

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On the heels of what many are labeling the greatest first round NBA series of all-time, there’s already been a lot of talk about how good the recently exited Chicago Bulls can be next year. And with good reason: Derrick Rose is already on his way to becoming one of the game’s best point guards, Ben Gordon (despite the fact that he plays worse defense than the 2008 Detroit Lions) is a lights-out scorer, and Joakim Noah can do it all from a defensive and rebounding perspective.

But perhaps the most intriguing player in this year’s Celtics-Bulls classis series was Tyrus Thomas. His play was a bit of a revelation in the series, as he consistently knocked down the 18-foot jump shot NBA 4s need to make, and his athleticism continues to be off the charts. He’s got the potential to be an all-star.

There is a saying in the NFL that it takes three years to truly evaluate a draft class, and to a lesser extent this is true in the NBA as well. Since Thomas and Boston’s stud PG Rajon Rondo are both from the 2006 NBA Draft class, how about we take a look at who the top 10 picks were, and who the revised top 5 should be?

2006 Draft (the actual top 10)

1. Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors

2. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers

3. Adam Morrison, Charlotte Bobcats

4. Tyrus Thomas, Chicago Bulls

5. Shelden Williams, Atlanta Hawks

6. Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers

7. Randy Foye, Minnesota Timberwolves

8. Rudy Gay, Memphis Grizzlies

9. Patrick O’Bryant, Golden State Warriors

10. Saer Sene, Seattle SuperSonics

2006 Draft (the should-have-been top 5)

1. Brandon Roy

2. Rajon Rondo

3. LaMarcus Aldridge

4. Rudy Gay

5. Tyrus Thomas

The ’06 class has hardly set the world on fire in its first three years, with its only redeeming value being that they’ve featured second-round gems like Utah’s Paul Millsap, Cleveland’s Daniel Gibson and Boston’s Leon Powe. But in terms of potential star power, don’t stick a fork in 2006 yet – all 5 of my revised top picks could end up as all-stars.

If the teams could do it over, who do you think they’d take?

Craig Sager conducted an interesting interview with Ron Artest on Wednesday. In it, Artest says that Brandon Roy is the “best player” he’s played against, including Kobe and LeBron.

Artest: “They are doing a good job, they are well coached. (Brandon) Roy is probably the best player I’ve played against, to me he is the best shooting guard. Not on defense now, defense is kind of suspect. He’s the best player I’ve played against.�

Sager: “He’s a better player than Kobe Bryant, better than LeBron James?�

Artest: “He’s the best player I’ve played against.�

Sager: “Are you saying that just because he’s your opponent in this series?�

Artest: “No, he is. He’s the best player I’ve played against, outside from a guy from my hood in Queensbridge, a guy named Mike Chafley. He went to jail a couple of years when he was 15 or 16 years old, but he was the best player I played against and now it’s Roy.�

You’ve got to love Artest’s flair. His team is primed for a matchup with the Lakers and he gives Kobe bulletin board material. (Like he needs the extra motivation.) And I love the reference to Mike Chafley in Queensbridge…did Artest play him before or after he went to jail? If it was before, then he’s saying that some 14 or 15 year-old is the best player he’s ever played against. If it was after Chafley got out of jail, why isn’t this cat in the NBA?

Every so often, I’ll be sitting at a bar, throwing back a few adult beverages with a buddy or two and I’ll pose the following question:

If you could have one current NBA player to build your franchise around, with the goal of winning a NBA title in the next five years – who would it be?

Since the 2009 NBA Playoffs are in their infancy, it seems to be as good of a time as any to kick around this question. My criteria are simple – a franchise player has to be able to carry his team, while being reasonably young and injury-free.

We’ll count down from #10 to #1. My top nine guys were pretty easy to list, but #10 was a bitch. Maybe you can help me decide. Feel free to provide your own top 10.

HONORABLE MENTION

Yao Ming, Rockets (28 years-old)
I love Yao’s post up game, and he is a skilled passer, but the chances are only 60/40 that he’ll be healthy for any given playoffs and those odds are only going to decrease as time wears on. He’s like Robert Downey, Jr. — he’s great at what he does, but you just don’t know if he’s going to be there when you need him.

Chauncey Billups, Nuggets (32)
He seems to be more responsible than ‘Melo for the Nuggets’ great play this season, but he’s 32 years old. Still, his effectiveness depends more on strength, steady play and good shooting than it does his (somewhat limited) athleticism, so he should be able to play into his late thirties.

Al Jefferson, Timberwolves (24)
Jefferson is one of the few young, back-to-the-basket post players in the league. He averaged 23/11 on a bad team, which leads me to believe he could post 19/10 on a playoff team, and should only get better with age.

Amare Stoudemire, Suns (26)
He’s four years younger than our next guy, but he’s already had two serious injuries in his career so one wonders if this is a trend. He also seems to be a little bit on the selfish side and has a rep for being a bad defensive player.

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No one can fault the job that Portland GM Kevin Pritchard has done so far. In 2005, when he was the Blazers’ interim coach, he reportedly advised then-GM John Nash and Steve Patterson to draft Chris Paul at #3, but the duo instead decided to trade the pick and ended up with Martell Webster at #6. He was promoted to assistant GM in 2006, and was involved in a series of deals that resulted in the acquisition of the draft rights of Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. In 2007, he was promoted to general manager. That summer, in addition to drafting Greg Oden, he turned Zach Randolph into a trade exception that he used to steal Rudy Fernandez from the Phoenix Suns.

Other than an ill-advised threat to sue anyone that tried to sign Darius Miles, it’s tough to second-guess anything that Pritchard has done in Portland.

But what if he had drafted Kevin Durant instead of Greg Oden? How much better off would the franchise be with Durant on the roster?

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…and here they are…

East: Devin Harris, Danny Granger, Jameer Nelson, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Rashard Lewis and Paul Pierce

West: Shaquille O’Neal, Chauncey Billups, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Tony Parker, Brandon Roy and David West

When comparing the final rosters to my picks, there were three changes. I didn’t have Allen Iverson on my roster, much less a starter, but he was voted in by the fans. Rashard Lewis replaced Vince Carter, which goes to show that the coaches value team wins more than individual (albeit gaudy) stats. David West replaced Carmelo Anthony, and I think it’s a good call, especially with ‘Melo’s injury. The longer he was out, the better the chances that the coaches would leave him at home. It didn’t help his All-Star stock that Denver has played very well without him.

The only thing that’s really wrong with these rosters is the inclusion of Allen Iverson. There were a host of players in the East — Carter, Tayshaun Prince, Ray Allen, Mo Williams, Rajon Rondo, Caron Butler and Josh Smith — that were more deserving, but there’s no doubt that AI is a very popular player. Unsurprisingly, we can’t really argue with the coaches’ picks. They know what they’re doing.

It’s especially good to see Devin Harris, Danny Granger, Jameer Nelson and Tony Parker get recognized for their fine play this season.

I made my picks more than two weeks ago. Then the All-Star starters (as voted in by the fans) were announced.

Now that we know who the starters will be, I’m wondering if there’s any reason to change any of my other picks. Let’s take a look…

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Starters: Allen Iverson, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard

My original picks: Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, Chris Bosh, Devin Harris, Danny Granger, Tayshaun Prince, Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter

I didn’t have Iverson on the team, much less starting, so one of my other eight picks has to go. Unfortunately, I think it’s going to be Prince because the Pistons aren’t good enough to warrant two All-Star nods. The same could be said about the Nets, but Vince Carter’s stats are pretty big. I think I’ll go with this group, though there are a number of players that could take Carter’s spot. If any of these other guys — Johnson, Pierce, Bosh, Harris, Granger and Nelson — don’t make it, it’s going to be a pretty big snub.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Starters: Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Amare Stoudemire, Tim Duncan and Yao Ming

My original picks: Dirk Nowitzki, Brandon Roy, Carmelo Anthony, Tony Parker, Pau Gasol, Chauncey Billups and Shaquille O’Neal

I had Nowitzki starting over Stoudemire, but no worries there. Would I swap out any of the players? Well, ‘Melo is still sidelined and the Nuggets don’t seem to be hurting too much without him. That weakens Anthony’s position and strengthens Billups’ argument. I could see David West, LaMarcus Aldridge, Al Jefferson or Deron Williams replacing Anthony, but I doubt it will happen. I think the other picks are safe, though Williams could replace Parker or Billups, though I don’t think either guy deserves to miss the All-Star Game.

The reserves will be announced this Thursday on TNT.

The NBA All-Star Game is part meritocracy and part popularity contest. First, the fans vote, and the top five vote getters – two guards, two forwards and a center – from each conference are the starters. Then the coaches vote on the remaining seven reserves for each team.

The current vote count can be seen here, but I thought I’d put together my own list – five starters and seven reserves – for each team. To me, when it comes to naming All-Stars a winning record is just as important as great stats, so given two players with similar numbers, I’m probably going to give the nod to the guy on the better team. I’ll list the player’s Player Efficiency Rating, which gives a nice overview of the guy’s per-minute statistical production this season.

And off we go…

EASTERN CONFERENCE STARTERS

Dwyane Wade, Heat
PER: 29.14
D-Wade is back with a vengeance. He’s averaging 29.0 points, 7.1 assists and 5.1 rebounds, and is (almost) single-handedly keeping the Heat in the playoff hunt. With 24% accuracy, I don’t know why he’s shooting so many threes (3.0 per game), but that’s just nitpicking. He’s third in the league in steals (2.25).

Joe Johnson, Hawks
PER: 19.84
JJ is averaging 22.3 points, 6.1 assists and 4.6 rebounds, and has the Hawks in a battle for the #4 spot in the East. His three-point shooting is down two points, but his overall FG% is up a point. Remember when everyone laughed at the Hawks for giving up future MIP Boris Diaw and two first round picks for him?

LeBron James, Cavs
PER: 32.04
LeBron is the front-runner for the MVP thus far. He’s posting 27.7 points, 6.6 assists and 6.6 rebounds a game. His numbers are down, but that’s because the Cavs can afford to rest him an additional four minutes per game. It’s great to see his FG% over 50% (50.8%) and FT% approaching 80% (78.8%). LeBron has always been a statistical stud, but it’s the Cavs’ stellar record that has him leading the MVP race.

Here’s a quick list of the top 10 shooting guards under the age of 26, ranked in the order of a combination of current performance and trade value (regardless of salary).

I’ll also list the player’s age and his Player Efficiency Rating.

1. Brandon Roy, Blazers
Age: 24
PER: 22.93
How do you like Roy’s smooth 21.1 points and 5.3 assists? He’s the cornerstone to a resurgent Portland franchise.

2. Kevin Martin, Kings
Age: 25
PER: 18.90
His line is a little thin – 2.9 assists, 2.8 rebounds – but boy can he score.

3. Kevin Durant, Thunder
Age: 20
PER: 17.26
His FG% is three percent higher this season and he’s hitting 47% of his treys. I’d rather see him play small forward, but he’s listed as an off guard.

4. O.J. Mayo, Grizzlies
Age: 21
PER: 17.13
It’s tough to argue with Mayo’s 21.3 points per game, especially when he’s shooting pretty well from the field (46%) and long range (39%). The Grizzlies have something going with their core of Mayo and Rudy Gay.

5. Andre Iguodala, Sixers
Age: 23
PER: 14.56
It has been a down year for Iggy, who has seen his scoring drop by 6.0 points per game since the arrival of Elton Brand. His FG% is down and his 3PT% is brutal (23%), but his rebounds and assists are up. Think the Sixers would trade him for Mayo or Durant straight up? I do.

6. Rudy Fernandez, Blazers
Age: 23
PER: 18.35
He’s been better than advertised. He’s only playing 26 minutes a game, but he’s scoring well (11.6 ppg) and is shooting the long ball often (2.3 made threes per game) and accurately (44%).

7. Ronnie Brewer, Jazz
Age: 23
PER: 16.32
Brewer is building on last year’s breakout season. He’s not a great three-point shooter (32%), but he’s improved in that area of the game. His contributions elsewhere – 3.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.0 steals – make him valuable.

8. Ben Gordon, Bulls
Age: 25
PER: 17.77
Gordon is playing for a contract and while his points are up (20.4), his three-point accuracy is down (37%).

9. Delonte West, Cavs
Age: 25
PER: 14.52
West has settled in nicely with the Cavs. He’s averaging 11.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists, and is shooting 50% from the field and 41% from long range.

10. Nick Young, Wizards
Age: 23
PER: 15.03
His line is thin, but he’s averaging 11.8 points in 24 minutes, and basketball is (mostly) about putting the ball in the hoop.

Other lists:

Top 10 Young Point Guards
Top 10 Young Small Forwards

With 12 games on the docket for Friday, there is bound to be a few games worth watching. I’m going to keep my eye on these games…

Trail Blazers (5-3) @ Hornets (4-3), 8 PM ET
The Blazers have won four straight and their first two of a five-game road trip. Rudy Fernandez, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge have been outstanding, and they just got Greg Oden back on Wednesday. The Hornets are 4-3 need a win here to get back on track. They are just 2-2 at home with losses to the Lakers and the Hawks. Chris Paul is in MVP form and David West is playing well, but they aren’t getting much from Peja Stojakovic (39% FG%). Byron Scott is (ponderously) only playing Julian Wright in very limited minutes, which is surprising considering how strong Wright came on last season.

Pistons (6-2) @ Lakers (7-0), 10:30 PM ET (ESPN)
Detroit is hitting the second of a back-to-back, so the Lakers have a distinct advantage tonight. Still, if the Pistons are on their game, they can test the Lakers. Allen Iverson is averaging 21.8 points, 7.0 assists and 4.8 rebounds in four games with the Pistons. Meanwhile, the Lakers are still trying to figure out how to use Lamar Odom off the bench and are trying to get something other than defense out of Andrew Bynum. The upside is that Trevor Ariza is starting to look like a star (or at least a starter) in the making.