Tag: statistical studies (Page 4 of 4)

The NBA’s Top 10 Franchise Players

Miami Heat forward LeBron James (R) is defended by Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (L) in the first quarter during their NBA basketball game in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, January 30 2011. REUTERS/Bill Waugh (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASKETBALL)

When I originally debuted this list almost two years ago, I took some (surprisingly angry) flack for not settling on a 10th player and for ranking a few guys too high.

The idea for the list sprung from a conversation that I regularly have with a buddy when we are tipping back a few adult beverages: If you could have one current NBA player to build your franchise around, with the goal of winning a NBA title in the next five years – who would it be?

Here’s who I had almost two years ago:

10. Dirk Nowitzki, Carmelo Anthony, Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, Kevin Garnett, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker (A reader named “all” was very upset that I couldn’t pick a #10 guy. He’s probably still upset about it.)
9. Derrick Rose
8. Brandon Roy
7. Deron Williams
6. Chris Paul
5. Kevin Durant
4. Dwight Howard
3. Kobe Bryant
2. Dwyane Wade
1. LeBron James

I took some heat for including Rose, but obviously he has panned out very well and is likely to win the league MVP this season. Roy’s knees have killed his stock. The other seven picks look pretty solid.

So let’s take another stab at this. Remember, we’re trying to win a title in the next five years, so youth and health is paramount.

Honorable Mention: Carmelo Anthony (defense), Amare Stoudemire (defense, age, knees), Pau Gasol (age), Tyreke Evans (regressing) Tim Duncan (age), Dirk Nowitzki (age), Paul Pierce (age), Rajon Rondo (moody, in a funk since Kendrick Perkins trade) and Kevin Garnett (age).

NOT QUITE WORTH MAX MONEY…YET

12. John Wall (20 years-old)
All right, I’m projecting a little bit here, but it worked with Derrick Rose and I think Wall has a chance to be in the same league. Check out his month-by-month stats over the course of his rookie season:

MonthGMinFG %REBASTSTLTOPTS
October239.00.4173.09.01.53.021.0
November838.10.4303.89.13.14.117.3
December934.40.3834.27.61.03.313.7
January1638.40.3884.210.51.53.913.9
February1236.30.4214.97.91.23.516.5
March1141.40.4116.07.32.04.419.1

So he burst into the league with a good October and November, but struggled a bit over the next two months as teams had a chance to game plan for him. Then in February and March, he’s able to counter that and get back to his early-season numbers. Great sign.

He’s an outstanding playmaker (9.1+ assists in 2-of-5 months) and is lightning quick. His rookie numbers are very similar to Rose’s, only he’s averaging 2.4 more assists per game. He’d likely be the Rookie of the Year if Blake Griffin hadn’t blown out his knee last season. In three or four years he might be vying for best point guard in the league honors.

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Forget the triple-double. The triple-dozen is where it’s at.

Since the 1986-87 season (which is the cutoff since that is as far back as Basketball Reference’s data goes), 201 different players have successfully posted a triple double, 1,042 games in all. That’s an average of 41.7 triple-doubles a season, including playoffs. It’s a nice feat, but it’s just too common of an occurrence to be amazing. (By the way, Jason Kidd leads the way with 107 triple-doubles during that span, though the first part of Magic Johnson’s career isn’t included. He had 66 during that span, but 138 overall. That’s second all-time to Oscar Robertson, who had 181 back in the day when nobody played any defense at all.)

So I submit for your approval…the triple-dozen. It’s just like a triple-double, but a player needs to record at least 12 in three of the following categories: points, rebounds, assists, blocks and/or steals.

In the last 25 years, 60 players have accomplished this feat a total of 155 times, or 6.2 times a season. Jason Kidd leads the way with 22, while Magic Johnson and Fat Lever trail (over that span) with 19 and 12 respectively. LeBron James is fourth with nine. Here’s the list of the 23 players who have posted a triple-dozen at least twice.

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Who is going to win the 2010-11 NBA MVP?

Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard scores during the third quarter against the Chicago Bulls at the United Center in Chicago on December 1, 2010. The Magic won 107-78. UPI/Brian Kersey

About this time every year, the MVP discussion really heats up. This season, it seems like it’s a two-man race between LeBron James and Derrick Rose, but I think there are a few other players that deserve consideration.

Using the same methodology that I used for my All-Star picks, let’s narrow down the league MVP candidates and see who should be on the short list.

I like to use the NBA’s Efficiency statistic, which rolls points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, missed shots and missed free throws into one number for comparison purposes. It’s not perfect, but no statistic is. I take a player’s per game efficiency (adjusted for team pace, because a player should not be penalized because his team plays at a slow pace) and multiply by his team’s winning percentage to calculate his Adjusted Efficiency. This is a number that takes both performance and team success into account.

Let’s take a look…

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