2010 Kentucky Derby Predictions

We don’t cover much horse racing here at The Scores Report, but I always take upon myself to hand out predictions for the Triple Crown races because I know our readers depend on them. (What? They don’t? Well to hell with them then.)

It’s apparently going to be a sloppy track at Churchill Downs today, which means that it’s really anyone’s race. Last year, 50/1 long shot Mine That Bird shocked the field by winning on a sloppy track, so who knows what will happen this evening.

Here is my crack at the top 3:

Win: Sidney’s Candy (9/1)
Sidney’s Candy doesn’t have a lot of experience on dirt tracks, but he’s already beaten Lookin at Lucky (the Derby favorite) once this year and is coming off three straight wins. He reportedly looked great in workouts this week, which helps ease the concerns about his ability to compete on a dirt track. He’ll start from the No. 20 post position, which I’m indifferent about. I think he’ll lead at some point and my money is on him being ahead at the finish.

Place: Paddy O’prado (10/1)
Paddy O’prado has already competed in three races this year at distances of 1 1/8 miles, which will certainly help him at the Kentucky Derby. The only problem is that he finished seventh in his only dirt race, albeit on a sloppy track in poor conditions. He claimed victory at the G3 Palm Beach on March 6 and will be ridden by jockey Kent Desormeaux, who has three Kentucky Derby victories under his belt.

Show: Line of David (20/1)
This is my sleeper today. Line of David will start of the No. 5 post position, which has produced 12 Derby winners since 1900. He also went from allowance winner to a Grade 1 winner in a smoothness transition and seems like a breakout candidate after he upset the field at the Arkansas Derby. I don’t think he has enough to win wire to wire (which is almost impossible to do at the Kentucky Derby), but I like him to finish in the money.

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Lookin at Lucky draws the rail at Kentucky Derby

2010 Kentucky Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky has drawn the rail position for Saturday’s race at Churchill Downs. The 3-year-old colt is also a 9/2 favorite to win the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby.

The rail has been awfully kind to horses in the Derby, as the No. 1 post position has won 12 races since 1900. The only other position with a comparable number is the No. 5 post, which has also produced 12 winners since 1900.

The horse with the next best odds for Saturday is Sidney’s Candy, who is 15/2 to win. But he drew an unlucky post at the No. 20 position, which has only produced two winners since 1900. (Of course, Big Brown won from that exact position only two years ago.)

In Lookin at Lucky’s last start, he placed third at the 2010 Santa Anita Derby behind Sidney’s Candy (who won the race), leading some to believe that the Kentucky Derby favorite is a tad overrated. However, Lookin at Lucky did collect wins at the Rebel on March 13 and at the CashCall Futurity on December 19 of last year. Also, Trainer Bob Baffert will know doubt have his horse prepared for Saturday.

Personally, I think Sidney’s Candy is a value at 15/2. He swept three races this sprint, including the Santa Anita Derby in his final prep race before the Kentucky Derby. He has the ability to get out in front early and sustain it, unlike most of the contenders in this year’s race, who push early and fade late.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

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