Tag: Sam Bradford (Page 13 of 25)

Report: Holmgren still pushing for No. 1 pick

It’s become public knowledge that Mike Holmgren thinks very highly of quarterback Sam Bradford. How high is he on Bradford? According to ESPN.com, Holmgren is willing to part with most of his 2010 picks and even a pick or two next year in order to move up to the No. 1 spot to take Bradford.

Holmgren declined to delve into specifics as far as his offer to the Rams, but indicated he would be willing to part with most — but likely not all — of the Browns’ 10 picks and perhaps a pick or picks next year for the consensus No. 1 quarterback in this year’s draft. Holmgren, however, is not optimistic that the Rams will pull the trigger on a trade. “They shouldn’t do it,” he said. “They need a quarterback more than anyone in the world.”

Holmgren said the Browns already have had three or four conversations with the Rams regarding the top pick. With St. Louis being somewhat coy about its intentions, and with no contract in place with Bradford, Holmgren will make one last run at Bradford.

“It’s not going to happen,” Holmgren said. “I just got out of a meeting and I told everyone, let [the board] come to us. That said, I’m going to go make the call.”

It’s amazing that Holmgen would share that kind of information just hours before the draft, but he must know that there’s no way the Rams are parting with the pick and therefore, it doesn’t matter what he says. Plus, if he lets the world know that he wants a quarterback, maybe another team will want to trade up to Cleveland’s spot at No. 7 in order to take Jimmy Clausen.

Things are starting to get interesting as we head into the first round.


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Redskins still trying to trade up for Bradford?

Let’s kick this NFL draft day off with a juicy rumor, shall we?

According to NFL.Fanhouse.com, the Redskins are still in discussions with the Rams about a trade up to the No. 1 overall spot. Per the article, Washington has its sights set on quarterback Sam Bradford.

After trading for Donovan McNabb on Easter Sunday, everyone crossed off quarterback from the Redskins’ draft wish list. But since they’ve been unable to extend McNabb’s contract thus far, there’s growing sentiment that Washington will still take a quarterback so Mike Shanahan can groom him for the 2011 season.

The idea makes sense on the surface, but why would the Redskins trade for McNabb and then immediately cause a controversy by taking a quarterback in the first round? I’m sure their intentions have always been to extend McNabb’s contract and they’re not going to have success doing that if they draft his replacement less than a month after acquiring him from Philadelphia. It just doesn’t make sense.

The more likely scenario would be that the Redskins stay at No. 4 and take an offensive tackle like Russell Okung or Trent Williams. Then they can continue to work on McNabb’s contract extension throughout the next couple of months.


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Which position is the safest to draft in the first round?

Originally posted 4/17/2009. Updated 4/21/2010.

When it comes to the first round of the NFL Draft, is one position safer than another? For example, if the Rams have three holes to fill (they have more, but bear with me) – quarterback, wide receiver and defensive tackle – and they can’t decide amongst the three players, is one position a safer pick than the other two?

I compiled a list of the 345 players that were picked from 1997-2007 (assuming that it takes three seasons to get a decent idea of what kind of player a draft pick is going to turn out to be) and asked our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, to rate each player on a scale of 1 to 5…

(1) Out of League
(2) Reserve
(3) Starter
(4) Star
(5) Superstar

The Out of League, Star and Superstar categories are pretty self-explanatory. To qualify as a Starter, the player must be starter-caliber for the majority of his NFL career. A Reserve is a player that is a backup for the majority of his career, so he may have started at one point, but on the whole he’s a backup. For the younger players, Anthony had to project a little bit. For example, a player is a starter in his third year – does he project to be star or superstar, or will he simply be a starter for the majority of his career?

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Can we predict a quarterback’s success?

In the April 19 issue of ESPN the Magazine, Peter Keating discusses a way for NFL teams to determine whether or not a first- or second-round QB will have a successful NFL career. (Insider subscription required.)

David Lewin, formerly an analyst for Football Outsiders and now with the NBA’s Cavaliers, has found that games started and NCAA completion percentage accurately predict NFL performance for QBs drafted in the first two rounds. To be more specific, the Day 1 QBs who go on to have the best pro careers complete at least 60% of their passes and start at least 37 games in college.

This theory has been around a while and when I was researching it last week, I stumbled across a similar article from 2007, so I’m not exactly sure how far back it dates.

Using college completion percentage makes a lot of sense. It seems intrinsically true that a QB that has trouble completing passes in college is also going to struggle with his accuracy in the NFL.

The number of starts is another strong stat. For a prospect to start 37 games, he basically needs to be a three-year starter. This indicates that he’s been around the block a few times, is reasonably durable and opponents have had a chance to game plan for him (and he’s still completed a high percentage of passes). It also seems reasonable to think that most good NFL quarterbacks wouldn’t have to be a backup for more than one season while in college.

Let’s take a look at the QBs selected in the first and second rounds of the ten drafts spanning from 1998-2007 to see if this theory still holds water.

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Rams willing to trade out of the top spot?

With the first round of the NFL draft only two days away now, rumors about the No. 1 overall pick are starting to swirl. NBC Sports reports that the Rams are willing to trade out of the top spot for much less than the NFL’s draft trade chart would require.

While it’s outdated, the draft trade chart suggests that the first pick in Round 1 is worth 3,000 points. So for example, if a team such as the Browns (who have the seventh overall pick) wanted to move up to the top spot, they would have to be willing to give up their first round pick (1,500 points) and three second rounders (worth 510 points apiece). But again, the chart is outdated and the Rams said they would be willing to accept less, so maybe they’d agree to the Browns’ first round pick and one second rounder. (Plus, what team would really give up their first round selection and three second rounders to move up? It’s unrealistic.)

The more likely scenario is that the Rams will stay put and draft Sam Bradford at No. 1. It’s extremely hard to trade out of the top spot and even though they could target Jimmy Clausen later in the first round, finding a trade partner for the top pick is difficult. Plus, the Rams need a quarterback no matter what. Do they have Bradford and Clausen rated similarly? Because if they don’t, they’re not going to trade down in hopes of landing Clausen when they had a much higher grade on Bradford. The same can be said for Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow, Tony Pike and any other quarterback that would be available in the middle rounds.

If Bradford is rated first on their board, then they might as well take him at No. 1.


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