Tag: Peyton Manning (Page 29 of 41)

      2009 NFL Week 11 Point Spreads & Odds

      November 18, 2009 /

      Along with a complete list of point spreads for this weekend, here is a quick-hit look at some of the marquee matchups in Week 11 of the NFL.

      Colts (9-0) at Ravens (5-4), 1:00PM ET
      After earning a win Sunday night thanks in large part to Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 28-yard line, the Colts head to Baltimore to take on a Ravens team brimming with confidence after shutting out Cleveland (not like that’s hard to do) on Monday night. The Ravens’ offense hasn’t been as good over the past month as it was earlier in the season and they might have trouble moving the ball against a stout (although injury-plagued) Indy defense. Last time the Colts traveled to Baltimore was during the postseason three years ago when Indy eventually went on to win the Super Bowl. The Colts beat the Ravens 15-6 that day, but Peyton Manning was picked off twice and finished with just 170 yards and no touchdowns.

      Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
      Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton and Knowshon Moreno weren’t around last year when Denver coughed up the AFC West title to San Diego after taking a decent lead late in the season. But that has to be on the minds of the Broncos who did play in the Denver last season. The Broncos already went into San Diego and beat the Chargers earlier this season on Monday night, but that was before the Bolts’ defense started playing better and Philip Rivers wasn’t winning games on his own. Rivers has been outstanding over the past couple of weeks and the running game finally showed a pulse in last week’s win over the Eagles. The Chargers are playing with a ton of confidence right now, while the Broncos have lost three in a row. A loss this weekend and the Denver faithful will start thinking, “Here we go ago.”

      Falcons (5-4) at Giants (5-4), 1:00PM ET
      Something has to give between these two teams; the Falcons have lost three of their last four, while the Giants have lost four in a row. Atlanta will be at a major disadvantage without running back Michael Turner (high ankle sprain), plus New York is coming off its bye so it had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Both Matt Ryan and Eli Manning have struggled over the past month with poor decision-making, interceptions and inaccuracy. Both of these teams are desperate for a win to stay within the NFC Wild Card hunt.

      Jets (4-5) at Patriots (6-3), 4:15PM ET
      A lot has changed since Week 2 when the Jets upset the Patriots in East Rutherford: Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez isn’t playing with as much confidence as he had been and now there are cracks in Rex Ryan’s vaunted defense. Bill Belichick and the Pats are angry after giving a win away in Indianapolis last Sunday night and will certainly look to bury a New York team that was so boastful about wanting to beat the New England earlier in the season. This game could get ugly in a hurry.

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      Bill Belichick was right…

      November 17, 2009 /

      …at least according to Gregg Easterbrook.

      Indianapolis had only one timeout, so a first down would have all but won the game. On the night, the Patriots had averaged 6.6 yards per play, so the chance of gaining 2 yards was auspicious. As Tim Graham of ESPN.com has noted, since Tom Brady became New England’s starting quarterback, the Patriots have converted 76 percent of their fourth-and-short attempts. A 3-in-4 chance to win is a pretty inviting opportunity.

      Which seems like a better gamble — 2 yards to win the game, or two minutes to shut down Peyton Manning when the Colts are hot? In 2007, AccuScore did thousands of computer simulations of the punt-or-go-for-it question for TMQ. One finding was that between your own 21-yard line and your own 35, you should go for it on fourth-and-2 or less. In test after test, doing this improved a team’s chance of victory — though, of course, there is no guarantee. No coach can control what happens on the field. Had New England punted, Indianapolis might have run the kick back for a touchdown, for instance. All the coach can do is make a decision that improves the team’s odds. Belichick made such a decision.

      Two things to note:

      1. While the Pats did average 6.6 yards per play on the night, they only averaged 2.8 yards per play in their final three possessions (not including Faulk’s 1-yard catch). The New England offense wasn’t as productive in the fourth quarter as it was during the first three.

      2. While Brady may own a 76% success rate on fourth down, during those last three drives, just six of the preceding 16 plays (38%) went for more than two yards. That didn’t bode well for the Pats’ 4th-and-2.

      I have no problem with computer simulations, but there is something about a 4th-and-whatever with the game on the line that can’t be quantified. Emotions are higher and everyone tightens up. It becomes tougher to execute. Officials are less likely to call a penalty, thinking that unless it’s obvious, players should decide the outcome (especially when the home crowd isn’t going to like your call).

      Belichick’s reasoning is understandable. Tom Brady is his best player and he’d rather have the ball in his hands then punt it to Peyton Manning, who just made short work of his tired defense on the previous possession. Had Faulk caught the ball cleanly, we’d all be talking about how gutsy (and brilliant?) it was to go for the first down to win the game.

      But it didn’t work out, and Belichick is left with egg on his face.

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      Belichick costs the Patriots a win over Colts

      November 16, 2009 /

      Bill Belichick is a genius. In fact, he’s so much of a genius that he cost his team a win on Sunday night by making one of the dumbest decisions by a head coach in quite some time.

      The Patriots absolutely dissected the Colts for 58 minutes tonight. Tom Brady threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns on 29-of-42 passing, while Randy Moss (nine catches, 179 yards, 2 TDs) and Wes Welker (nine catches, 94 yards) abused an injury-riddled, inexperienced secondary on their way to taking a 31-14 fourth quarter lead.

      Then Peyton Manning worked his magic to cut Indy’s deficit to 34-28 with just over two minutes remaining. But all the Patriots had to do was pick up two first downs (something they had done with ease the entire night) on their ensuing possession and put the Colts away for good. Instead, Indy’s defense rose to the challenge and stopped the Pats on a 3rd and 2 from New England’s 28-yard line to force a punt.

      Or what everyone thought would be a punt, that is.

      Instead of punting and making Manning drive the length of the field, Belichick decided to call a time out (the second of the drive) and go for it on fourth down. What ensued was a 1-yard catch by Kevin Faulk, a controversial spot of the ball and a turnover on downs for New England. Four plays later, Manning found Reggie Wayne for a 1-yard touchdown pass to give the Colts a stunning 35-34 victory.

      Now, I don’t fault Belichick for being who he is: An aggressive decision-maker and a coach that not only likes to beat his opponent, but rip their soul out of their bodies and do a tap dance number on it. That’s who he is and that’s what he does. He’s won multiple Super Bowls with that strategy and he’s not going to change his philosophy now.

      But the problem with that strategy in this case is that it just wasn’t a smart football decision. Belichick has to punt the football and trust his defense in that situation by forcing Manning to drive the length of the field to win. There’s nothing wrong with being aggressive, but that was just a flat out stupid decision by a head coach that knows better.

      Granted, if the Patriots picked up that first down and never gave the ball back to Manning, everyone would be lauding Belichick’s fearless style. I get that, and I don’t want to lose sight of that fact because the media can be two-faced in scenarios like these. And in Belichick’s defense, with the way his offense had been moving the ball all night, gaining a first down on 4th and 2 must have seemed like a lock and why give the ball back to Manning after he just carved up your defense the previous two drives?

      But the Patriots didn’t pick up that first down and there was really no reason not to punt the football in that situation. It wasn’t like they were at midfield – they were at their own 28-yard line and if their gamble didn’t work, Belichick had to have known he was handing a win over to the Colts. Furthermore, for Belichick to burn two timeouts before making that decision and leaving himself without the option to stop the clock had his offense not picked up the first down was just as stupid.

      I’ve never seen a team dominate like the Patriots did for 58 minutes, only to lose on a decision like that. New England will surely rebound and I wouldn’t doubt it if we saw these same two teams play in the AFC Championship Game in the same stadium. But nevertheless, this was an awful decision by Belichick and he cost his team tonight.


      Photo from fOTOGLIF

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      NFL Week 9 MVP Power Rankings

      November 15, 2009 /

      With Drew Brees and Peyton Manning leading their teams to victory again, barely, there is no good reason to drop them in the rankings here. Meanwhile, Brett Favre and Jared Allen did not play, so we held spots for them, but moved Cedric Benson up based on a second 100-yard rushing performance against the Ravens.

      1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Halfway through the season, Brees and his Saints are 8-0 and have a three game lead in their division. Suffice to say, this team appears to be headed toward a first round bye, and their QB is one of the biggest reasons.

      2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—After a subpar start to 2008 after knee surgery, Manning wanted to get off to a fast start this season, and he has done just that. But what might be more impressive is that after Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, he’s throwing to guys named Garcon and Collie.

      3. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals—He rushed for 120 yards against the Ravens in Week 5, and 117 yards against them in Week 9. Read that back. That’s two 100 yard games against the Baltimore Ravens, and that’s just sick.

      4. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings—The old man still has it, much to the dismay of everyone in Northern Wisconsin. You think Ted Thompson is sleeping well lately?

      5. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings—He’s had two weeks to rest those wheels that never seem to stop moving. Next on Allen’s hit list is that poor Stafford kid in Detroit.

      Honorable Mention–Elvis Dumervil, Broncos; Andre Johnson, Texans, Tom Brady, Patriots; Adrian Peterson, Vikings; Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, Chris Johnson, Titans; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Michael Turner, Falcons; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Steve Smith, Giants

      Bullz-Eye Sports Channel, NFL

      2009 NFL Power Rankings: Week 10

      November 11, 2009 /

      Here’s how I see things 1-32 in the NFL with nine weeks in the books:

      1. New Orleans Saints (8-0)
      Nobody should be surprised that the Falcons and Panthers gave the Saints issues at home the past two weeks. After all, Atlanta and Carolina are familiar with New Orleans since they play them twice a year. The real story is how the Saints never panicked when they got down early and outplayed both the Falcons and Panthers in the fourth quarter.

      2. Indianapolis Colts (8-0)
      The Colts have the eighth best defense in the NFL, which is rather remarkable given that starters Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson haven’t played much at all. Dwight Freeney has terrorized opposing quarterbacks this season.

      3. Minnesota Vikings (7-1)
      Heading into the second half of the season, the only question I have about these Vikings is whether or not Brett Favre will stay healthy enough to lead this team deep into the playoffs. Last year, he couldn’t and the Jets tanked in the final month of the season.

      4. New England Patriots (6-2)
      We’ll get a great idea of how good this Patriots team is this weekend when they travel to Indianapolis to take on the undefeated Colts. Bill Belichick better figure out a way to get Dwight Freeney blocked so Tom Brady can build off the momentum he has created the past three games.

      5. Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)
      I get the feeling that people keep waiting for the Bengals to cave and sink back to reality. Those folks will be waiting a while because this team is underrated, not overrated. A win this week in Pittsburgh and everyone will be believers.

      6. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
      Jon Gruden hit the nail on the head when he said on Monday night that the Steelers close out games better than anyone in the league. One of the rare times they didn’t close out a team was earlier this season in Cincinnati, when the Bengals beat them on a last-second touchdown. They’ll get a chance to avenge that loss this Sunday in Pittsburgh, as well as take a one-game lead in the AFC North if they can pull off a win.

      7. Denver Broncos (6-2)
      I’m not ready to suggest that Denver is overrated or will start to freefall, but it is a little troubling that they’ve played two good teams the past two weeks and were beaten soundly in both contests. It’s time for Josh McDaniels to prove that he can make adjustments and Kyle Orton needs to take better care of the ball when his team is trailing.

      8. Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
      Given all their talent, I want to believe that the Cowboys have turned the corner under Wade Phillips. But this isn’t the first time in the past couple years where they’ve stringed together a couple of good outings to get people to believe. Their win in Philadelphia was awfully impressive, but they need to prove that they can sustain their momentum.

      9. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3)
      The Eagles had an opportunity to make a statement at home against the Cowboys last Sunday night and failed. Hopefully Brian Westbrook will return soon, because Philly’s offense can look stagnant at times without him.

      10. Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
      Michael Turner started hearing the words “one-year wonder” being tossed around a couple weeks ago and didn’t like it. He’s responded with two 150-plus rushing performances and has looked like the back he did last year. It’s a good thing too, because Matt Ryan hasn’t played well since Atlanta’s win in San Francisco four weeks ago.

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