Tag: NCAA tourney talk (Page 5 of 9)

      Ty Lawson’s big toe is a big problem

      March 18, 2009 /

      North Carolina is supposed to march to the Final Four, but they’re going to have a tough time if they’re without ACC Player of the Year Ty Lawson.

      Coach Roy Williams says the Atlantic Coast Conference player of the year must practice Tuesday and Wednesday in order to play in Thursday’s NCAA matchup against Radford. Lawson has been hobbled since injuring his right big toe before the regular-season finale against Duke, an injury that sidelined him at last weekend’s ACC tournament.

      Williams says Lawson’s recovery is going slower than he had expected. Lawson said at the ACC tournament that he was feeling better after several days of rest.

      The good news is that the Tar Heels play their first two games in Greensboro, which is only about an hour away from campus. Lawson doesn’t have to travel, which can take its toll on a player’s health.

      “Williams says Lawson’s recovery is going slower than he had expected.”

      Boy, it’s a bad sign when the words “recovery” and “slower” appear in the same sentence. Even if he can play, there’s a substantial risk of re-injury. North Carolina can’t win a title without him. And if he’s not practicing now, and it doesn’t look like he’s going to be ready to go tomorrow, I highly doubt that he’s going to get to that 90-95% threshold required to get the Tar Heels over the hump.

      In my annual bracket column, I had North Carolina going through to the Final Four because all (or was it most?) of the signs pointed to Lawson being ready to go. If he’s hobbled, I don’t think North Carolina gets past Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen.

      It looks like I have to go change my picks…

      College Basketball, March Madness

      Four observations about the South Region

      March 17, 2009 /

      1. North Carolina has a tough road ahead.
      With Ty Lawson at less than 100%, the Tar Heels could be in trouble as soon as Saturday. The LSU/Butler winner is capable of springing the upset, and if both teams advance, #4 Gonzaga could give UNC all it can handle in the Sweet Sixteen. Later on, potential matchups with Syracuse or Oklahoma loom large. With Lawson healthy, they shouldn’t have a problem, but if the ACC POY is gimpy, don’t be surprised if UNC goes down before the Final Four. In fact, expect it.

      2. This might be Gonzaga’s best team yet.
      Stat guru Ken Pomeroy has the Bulldogs pegged as the fifth best team heading into the tournament, ahead of bigger names like Pittsburgh and Duke. Gonzaga goes eight deep, but Mark Few relies mainly on six players who all average at least 9.2 points per game. Those six players are all legitimate three-point threats as well, with four shooting better than 39% from long range on the season. The Bulldogs are extremely efficient both offensively and defensively, which is why Pomeroy loves them so much.

      3. Syracuse/Arizona State should be a doozy.
      If they both manage to win their first round games, a second round Orangemen/Sun Devils matchup should be fun. Despite losing to Louisville in the Big East Championship final, Syracuse is one of the hottest teams in the country, but only time will tell if the 35 overtime minutes they played against Syracuse and West Virginia eventually takes its toll. Since they play so much zone defense, it shouldn’t be much of a factor, and it’s not like point guard Jonny Flynn gets tired anyway. ASU has been up and down lately, but they played well in the Pac-10 tournament before blowing a 15-point lead in a loss to USC. The Sun Devils depend on James Harden (20.8 ppg) to score, so it will be interesting to see if Syracuse’s zone can slow him down. Regardless, Herb Sendek has done a terrific job in his short tenure at ASU. I wonder if NC State regrets letting him go…

      4. The Illini should be aware of the long ball.
      Western Kentucky’s A.J. Slaughter and Orlando Mendez-Valdez average better than 5.0 made threes per game between them, and along with Steffphon Pettigrew, the Hilltoppers’ top three scorers all shoot at least 37% from long range. If Illinois comes out and lays an offensive egg like they did against Minnesota (36 points) and Penn State (33 points) earlier in the year, Western Kentucky will pull the upset.

      College Basketball, March Madness

      How are the officials assigned for March Madness?

      March 17, 2009 /

      As part of Pat Forde’s latest column, he describes how the NCAA coordinator of officials assigns referees to work each game.

      The Minutes caught up with NCAA coordinator of officials John Adams (48) last week to see how he will be viewing the tournament and his refs’ role in it.

      On Friday at 5 p.m., the NCAA e-mailed the 96 officials who will be working the tournament to tell them they’re in. At 5:45 p.m. Sunday, Adams got an advance copy of the bracket and began slotting in crews for individual games — he’d already decided which crews were going to which sites. The job of matching crews to specific games is largely an effort to ensure there is no potential conflict of interest — putting two refs who do a preponderance of SEC games on an LSU game, for instance.

      On Sunday night, the tournament site managers will get on the phone and call the officials coming to their subregion, informing them whether they’re working just one day or two. Adams, who wants to get some new blood moved into the elite ranks of officiating, said at least 10 rookies will get the call.

      On Tuesday at 6 p.m., Adams will have a conference call with his refs. He’ll go over general issues and protocol — when it’s OK to look at a monitor, when it’s not, etc. And he’ll remind them of the points of emphasis that have been in place all season: traveling, illegal screens, block/charge calls, etc. He’ll reiterate that they should keep conversations with coaches to a minimum.

      “We’ve spent all year getting ready for this,” said Adams, who has seen 67 games in person and countless more on TV.

      Then the refs go do their thing, and Adams hunkers down in Indianapolis with NCAA staffers Greg Shaheen and Tom Jernstedt in front of a bank of televisions to watch them work. In concert with tournament administrators at every site, they’ll determine which refs keep working and which go home.

      The on-site administrators will fill out rating cards on every ref with one of three judgments: strongly recommend to advance; recommend to advance; do not recommend to advance. Those cards will be sent to Adams.

      The group will be cut from 96 to 48 to 36, and ultimately to nine for the Final Four — three for each game. Just like the teams, they’re all striving to advance.

      “It’s very competitive,” Adams said. “They’re all trying to get to Detroit.”

      Adams will be watching to see who handles the pressure of close games and heavy scrutiny. He knows basketball officials are subject to more second-guessing than ever.

      “It’s hard to keep a secret anymore,” he said. “If you make a mistake, everyone sees it replayed. The media and so many people can see these games, and so many are close.

      “To some people it’s rarely the kid who screws up, it’s the referee. It works better that way.”

      In many ways it’s a thankless task, but it has its rewards. For nine men, the reward is a trip to the Final Four. Adams is watching to determine which nine earn it.

      It’s interesting how the competition for the officials mirrors that of the players. It also seems that the officiating on the college level is far superior than that of the NBA. Why is that?

      College Basketball, March Madness

      Hunting for giant killers

      March 17, 2009 /

      ESPN’s Peter Keating lists a few upset possibilities…

      No. 13 Portland State (17.6 percent) vs. No. 4 Xavier (62.7 percent)

      Portland State, whose adjusted statistics are only about as impressive as Iowa State’s or St. John’s, isn’t the ideal killer. But Xavier is a textbook example of a giant waiting to be slain by just about anyone: The Musketeers turn the ball over considerably more often than they generate turnovers (21.9 percent vs.18.9 percent of possessions). They are heavily reliant on making more free throws than opponents (9.1 FT margin per 100 possessions), which is always a concern in a one-and-done scenario. And they don’t score enough to blow past their flaws (adjusted offensive efficiency of 111.3). Considering everything working against Xavier, and the fact that Portland State at least has a puncher’s chance, according to our model, this is as good an upset pick as you’ll find in the first round.

      No. 11 Temple (32.6 percent) vs. No. 6 Arizona State (27.9 percent)

      The Sun Devils play sloooow (61.2 possessions per game, by far the fewest among giants), which means James Harden (20.8 ppg) is even more impressive than he looks. But ASU doesn’t grab offensive rebounds (30.6 percent of possessions, 250th in the country). And they give opponents too many open looks from 3-point land (27.4 percent of all field goals). Temple, on the other hand, keeps foes off the offensive glass, doesn’t turn the ball over and doesn’t rely on free throws to outscore opponents. Also, our model can’t distinguish between dominating scorers who can carry a team through the postseason and those who can be stopped as soon as they run into a good opponent, but senior guard Dionte Christmas certainly was the former in the Atlantic 10 tournament.

      I don’t advocate picking either of these underdogs. Arizona State is playing good basketball and I think Xavier will have enough to get past the first two rounds. But it’s interesting to see that someone has developed a formula to predict these upsets. We’ll see how it fares.

      College Basketball, March Madness

      Four observations about the East Region

      March 17, 2009 /

      1. Duke is better, but they’re still not good enough.
      Truth be told, Duke is my favorite team and has been since the days of Johnny Dawkins. But they haven’t had a legit post presence since Carlos Boozer and Coach K has hitched his wagon to the three-ball. The Blue Devils are looking a lot better now that they inserted Elliot Williams into the starting lineup. And now that Nolan Smith is back from missing some time with a concussion, Duke can throw an athletic, perimeter-oriented lineup at their opponent. If Gerald Henderson, Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer (who is playing great now that he’s running the point) are all on their games, the Blue Devils are tough to beat, but if they run into Pittsburgh in the regional final, they might be in trouble. The only time Pitt loses is when DeJuan Blair gets into foul trouble — he averaged 4.8 fouls in Pitt’s four losses — and Duke just doesn’t have the post presence to challenge him down low. The Blue Devils might have to run Singler at center and hope that he can get a couple of cheap ones on Blair early in the game. And Duke will be challenged before then — Texas and the potential UCLA/Villanova winner are more than capable of sending the Blue Devils home early.

      2. The Florida State/Wisconsin matchup is a clash of styles.
      I’m not sure what to make of the Seminoles. They flew under the radar all season before upending a Ty Lawson-less North Carolina in the ACC tourney semis. Then looked as if they were asleep for much of the first half of the championship game against Duke. How will they react to flying to Boise to play the Badgers, who love to grind the game to a halt and play tough, fundamental defense? This one might come down to the officials. If they let the two teams play, that should work in Wisconsin’s favor, as they’re used to the physical Big 10 style. But if they call it tight, the Seminoles should be able to get into the lane whenever they want.

      3. Good luck beating Villanova in Philly.
      Of all the top seeds, the Wildcats are the only team that is actually playing the first two rounds in their hometown. (Okay, nitpickers, Villanova is actually located in Radnor Township, a Philadelphia suburb. Big difference.) If they can get by American University in the opening round, they should have a sizable home court advantage against potential second round opponent UCLA, who is going to have a tough time getting its frontrunning fans (yeah, I said it) to travel cross country.

      4. Pitt has what it takes, except tournament experience.
      The Panthers have three great weapons at their disposal. Senior point guard LeVance Fields dishes out 7.6 assists per game and can score when he has to, senior swingman Sam Young is averaging 18.7 points and 6.1 rebounds per game, and sophomore big man DeJuan Blair is a double-double machine. But in their last three tournament appearances, the Panthers haven’t advanced past the Elite Eight, losing in the Sweet Sixteen twice. Now that his team has a #1 seed, can Jamie Dixon get Pittsburgh over the hump and into the Final Four? I’m betting my bracket on it.

      College Basketball, March Madness

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