Here’s a quick and dirty look at how I see things playing out in the Big Eleven this season:
#1 Ohio State Some believe the Buckeyes’ offense might be close to catching up to their defense in terms of dominance, which is saying something with the way OSU’s D played a year ago. The Buckeyes return all three leading rushers from 2009 in Brandon Saine, Dan Herron and quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who some believe has become a more committed teammate over the offseason. The key to OSU becoming a national title threat is Pryor, or more specifically, whether or not he’ll make opponents respect his passing game. The good thing for him and the Buckeyes on a whole is that they return four starters to a veteran offensive line that will open up plenty of holes for a deep and talented group of running backs. Defensively, OSU was a top five unit last season and could be once again this year assuming they can generate a pass-rush and the safeties can hold up in coverage. Cameron Heyward is one of the nation’s best defensive ends and Ross Homan is a playmaker at the outside linebacker spot. The secondary isn’t flashy, but cornerbacks Chimdi Chekwa and Devon Torrence are solid. From a schedule standpoint, if they can beat Miami in Columbus in the second week of the season, they should be 6-0 heading into Madison on October 16. From there, they’ll be tested by Wisconsin, Penn State and Iowa, but this is your clear favorite to win the Big Ten.
Tom Izzo and reporter Lynn Henning get into a spirited discussion about the media’s response to Izzo’s flirtation with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Both guys bring up good points, but I especially like Henning’s point about how the silence from MSU and from Izzo’s camp is not going to stop the speculation about Izzo’s future. If Izzo is upset about the misinformation that’s floating around out there, then he needs to set the record straight. If he’s hoping that people are going to stop talking about the situation while he ponders his decision in absolute silence, he’s going to be waiting a long time.
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Seeing just what kind of crowd Butler is able to draw and whether or not it helps Bulldogs beat Michigan State. Final Four crowds are notoriously corporate and laid back, so if the Butler faithful (and the newly converted) can create some real home court atmosphere, it will make things tough for Michigan State. I’ll also be watching how the Bulldogs handle playing in a dome; they’re used to playing in smaller gyms and fieldhouses in the Horizon League.
At the end of the day, whose performance will we be talking about?
There are a long list of possibilities, but Nolan Smith is playing excellent basketball of late. He’s the only Duke guard that will be able to get into the lane and create his own shot, and his floater will be very useful against West Virginia’s zone. And for all of the talk of Jon Scheyer’s “clutch-ness,” Smith isn’t afraid to take the big shot either.
Butler-Michigan State: Who wins and why?
Despite the Spartans’ experience, I think the Bulldogs win a tight one. They’ve already beat two teams (Syracuse, K-State) that are better than Michigan State, so they appear to be the better team. The question is — can they put all the distractions and the sheer magnitude of the game behind them and just play ball? I think they can.
Duke-West Virginia: Who wins and why?
I have a feeling this game will be nip-and-tuck the entire way with the Blue Devils pulling away at the end with a big three and excellent free throw shooting. Even though it was a 2-3, Baylor’s zone will get Duke ready to face the Mountaineers’ 1-3-1. I don’t expect West Virginia to continue to shoot the three like they did against Kentucky — Duke is excellent at guarding the arc.
Be sure to check back around tip-off — I’ll be tweeting during both games.
They ran this play at least twice on Kansas State last weekend and scored both times. It’s especially effective against defenses that try to get out in the passing lanes.
The play starts with the point guard (#1), usually Ronald Nored, at the top of the key, dribbling to his right. Matt Howard (#5) starts to move towards Gordon Hayward (#4) as if he’s going to set a screen for him. Shelvin Mack (#2) starts to creep up the lane towards Howard’s man.
Here’s Howard’s read: If his man is over his left shoulder (as he’s facing Hayward), preparing to help on Hayward (#4) as he comes off the screen, then Howard (#5) knows he has a step on him. He doesn’t screen and immediately releases to the basket.
If Howard’s man is hugging him, Mack (#2) can set a screen, but usually he just engages his own defender (by walking into him and effectively screening him off), so he can’t help on Howard as he cuts to the basket.
If Howard is open, Nored (#1) delivers a pass that should hit the center right in front of the basket for a lay up.
To defend this play, three things need to happen: 1) there needs to be ball pressure on Nored, 2) Howard’s defender needs to stay close to his man preferably on the basket side, and 3) Mack’s defender needs to curl around (get behind) Mack when he starts to head into the lane so that he’s in position to help on Howard when he cuts.
This play uses Hayward as a decoy. Howard’s man is so worried about Hayward coming off the screen that he forgets about protecting the basket against a cut by Howard. Defenses will typically crowd Hayward and Mack since they are Butler’s most dangerous scorers. This leaves the basket open for Howard.
Butler uses a lot of little misdirection plays that work well against aggressive man-to-man defense. Head coach Brad Stevens likes to run this play out of a timeout, so look for it on Saturday. It will be interesting to see how Tom Izzo chooses to defend it.
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With Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse out of the picture, some are grumbling about the lack of big-name teams at the Final Four. By the time the final buzzer sounds on Monday night, it’s entirely possible that those same detractors will call the games “boring” or “ugly.”
Here’s why:
1. Pace There are 347 teams in the D1 ranks and of the four teams set to play Saturday, Michigan State (#215) plays at the fastest pace. The other three teams — Duke (#232), Butler (#285) and West Virginia (#306) — are all in the bottom third in the number of possessions used per game. All four teams are in the top 50 in offensive efficiency (points per possession), so there should be some scoring, but don’t expect any high-octane, up-and-down affairs.
2. Defense Duke (#3 in defensive efficiency), Butler (#6) and West Virginia (#10) are elite defensive teams, and Michigan State (#33) isn’t bad, either. All four teams hold their opponents to less than 41.5% from the field and 33.1% from long range. Duke and Butler play great positional defense and always seem to have a help defender in the right spot. Michigan State and West Virginia use superior athleticism to smother opponents. The Mountaineers will even utilize a tough-to-attack 1-3-1 zone.
These teams are evenly matched and low-pace, low-scoring affairs lend themselves to close games. This should result in exciting basketball, but we’re not going to see anything like 2009, when all four teams were in the top 130 in overall pace.
