Be sure to check out Week 12’s Fantasy Fallout and our Waiver Wire Watch for Week 13. Still have questions? Fire away, but be sure to tell me about your league’s roster requirements and whether or not you’re in a PPR league.
Tag: fantasy football strategy (Page 33 of 80)
Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.
Alex Smith (18.7)
Smith is startable the rest of the way, but he has especially nice matchups in Week 14 (ARI) and Week 16 (DET).
Vince Young (14.9)
Young has the Rams and Dolphins in Week 14 and 15, respectively.
Mark Sanchez (40.4)
Sanchez has nice matchups in Week 14 (TB) and Week 15 (ATL).
Ryan Fitzpatrick (0.8)
The Bills have the Chiefs and Falcons in Weeks 14 and 16.
Matthew Stafford (7.2)
Josh Freeman (2.6)
Jason Campbell (19.5)
Matt Leinart (2.0)
Chad Henne (4.6)
Every week, I pick one question from our Fantasy Football Q&A and post it on Sunday morning. This week’s question comes from RJR, who is wondering how he should cut Dustin Keller for James Casey.
“Do you think it would be worth dropping [Dustin] Keller for [James] Casey? My TE position is killing me and even though it seems like Keller has a lot of targets he does not put up a ton of points. What do you think Casey’s value going forward is? (or I can wait and drop Finley on Monday for Casey but a few teams in my league also need TE help and he may not last that long) or should I just leave it alone unless he blows up.”
My answer: At TE, I’d stick with Keller. Like you said, he gets a ton of targets and that’s half the battle. I’d rather have Finley than Casey right now.
Over the last three weeks, Keller is averaging 5.7-57-0.3, which are very good TE numbers. Clearly, he went through a bad stretch in the middle of the season, but he seems to have developed a better rapport with Mark Sanchez as the season has worn on.
While Casey does have some upside filling in for Owen Daniels, he is a rookie and it’s not often that a rookie TE becomes a viable starting option in fantasy football. Keller has more experience and a decent QB and should be starter-quality for the remainder of the season.
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Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.
Brett Favre should have a big game against a Bears secondary that has been really spotty, especially lately…Despite leaving the game early last week, Kurt Warner still looks like a nice start against a Titans defense that is ranked 31st against the pass…Carson Palmer faces a Cleveland defense that is yielding 247 yards and 1.5 pass TD per game…Matt Hasselbeck has a nice matchup with the Rams’ 24th-ranked pass defense….In five starts, Alex Smith is averaging 207 yards and 1.8 pass TD, and with the Jags’ 25th-ranked pass defense coming to down, he should have a nice day…Matt Ryan has been struggling of late, and the Bucs pass defense is somewhat improved, but he is still a pretty good start…Desperate? Josh Freeman (@ ATL) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. MIA) both have nice matchups this week.
The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.
Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…
#1 Bengals: 20 PA (0) + 1 INT + 2 FR = 3 fantasy points
#2 Cowboys: 6 PA (8) + 1 SK + 1 INT = 10 fp
#3 Lions: 37 PA (0) + 1 SK = 1 fp
Ouch. Needless to say, it wasn’t a strong week for DTBWW. The Bengals laid an egg against Oakland and the Lions’ defense turned out to be more inept than the Browns’ offense, and that’s saying something. I *almost* picked the Cardinals versus the Rams (8 fp), but once again I let my esteemed colleague, Anthony Stalter, talk me out of a better pick. At least the Cowboys showed up — they put forth a nice defensive effort against the Redskins.
For the season, my #1 pick is averaging 9.5 fantasy points, my #2 pick is averaging 10.6 and my #3 pick is averaging 6.3. On the whole, DTBWW is averaging 8.8 fppg, which are DT2-type numbers. My #2 pick has been particularly hot of late, averaging 11.4 fp over the last eight weeks. Go figure.
Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
I’d love to recommend the Bengals (vs. CLE) or the Packers (@ DET) this week, but they aren’t eligible because they are owned in 72% and 80% of ESPN leagues, respectively. If they are available, pick them up before moving on to this list. (I’d also take the Jets — owned in 66% of leagues — over the Dolphins.)
Pick #1: Dallas Cowboys (vs. OAK)
A stingy Cowboy defense hosts a fairly inept Raiders offense on a short week. Bruce Gradkowski seems better than JaMarcus Russell, but now Dallas has some recent tape to game plan against him.
Pick #2: Seattle Seahawks (@ STL)
The Seahawks were embarrassed last week against the Vikings and are a better team than they showed in Minnesota. The defense isn’t great, but it’s opportunistic and with Marc Bulger out, St. Louis has a problem at QB.
Pick #3: Miami Dolphins (@ BUF)
The Dolphins really need this game and the Bills have been a quality matchup for fantasy defenses all year long. Terrell Owens’ big Week 11 will ensure that the Dolphins don’t forget about him in Week 12.
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