If you haven’t hopped on this gravy train yet then shame on you because these picks are crashing and burning on a weekly basis now. After my 1-2-1 effort in Week 5, my season record is 10-8-2 but I’m now 4-7-1 over the past three weeks. It’s only a matter of time before that season record of mine gets below .500 and I’m providing true “Fade Material.”

Here are my picks for Week 6. I see a couple of backdoor covers and one underdog that should be down by 21 points by the end of the first quarter…

Florida State @ Wake Forest, 12:30PM ET
The Seminoles are having a hell of a time trying to run the ball (they’re 115th in the nation in rushing offense) and injuries are starting to mount for FSU. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has won three straight games for the first time since 2007 and quarterback Tanner Price is off to the best four-game start in school history (1,119 yards). The ‘Noles are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games against the Demon Deacons, while the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
THE PICK: WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS +10

Florida @ LSU, 3:30PM ET
It’s going to be a long day for freshman quarterback Jeff Driskel, who is subbing for the injured Jeff Brantley in Baton Rouge today. LSU is allowing just 12.8 points per game and is coming off a game in which it allowed just 155 total yards in a win over Kentucky. The Gators are just 2-6-1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five October games. I doubt LSU will roll but I don’t envision Florida scoring more than 10 points.
THE PICK: LSU TIGERS –13

Vanderbilt @ Alabama, 7:00PM ET
I’m choking on chalk this weekend but I don’t care. Vanderbilt is heading in the right direction under first-year coach James Franklin but very little is going to slow down this ‘Bama team from making a run at the national championship. The Tide are 15-1 all-time against Vanderbilt at Bryant-Denny Stadium and is outscoring opponents 45-8 in the fourth quarter this season. Nick Saban’s team doesn’t let up and even though this is a huge point spread, I like ‘Bama to produce a blowout for homecoming week in Tuscaloosa.
THE PICK: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -29

Colorado @ Stanford, 7:30PM ET
Oddsmakers keep jacking up the point spread on Stanford and the Cardinal keeps covering. Thus, there’s no reason to hop off the Andrew Luck bandwagon now. Stanford is 6-0-1 against the number in their last seven conference games and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Meanwhile, the Buffs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or greater.
THE PICK: STANFORD CARDINAL -29

Last Week: 1-2-1
Season: 10-8-2

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

I finished with my first .500 week in college football last Saturday, as I went 2-2 with my predictions. Stanford and Army (who won outright over Northwestern as a 6-point dog) were winners, while Auburn and Ohio State failed to show up. I’m still 8-3-1 on the year, which I’ll certainly take.

Florida State @ Clemson, 3:30PM ET
The home team is 11-2 against the spread in the last 13 meetings between these two teams, while the Seminoles are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Tigers and 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games versus Clemson. Florida State is also just 1-5 against the number in their last six conference games and with the line set at 2.5, I like Clemson to win by at least a field goal.
THE PICK: CLEMSON -2.5

Arkansas @ Alabama, 3:30PM ET
The Razorbacks are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 conference games and 4-1 in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. They’re also 4-1 ATS in their last five games in September and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog. I like Arkansas to give ‘Bama a game today and keep the score within 10 points.
THE PICK: ARKANSAS +11

Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone seems to be hyper-cautious these days, so Boise State is holding back three players from tomorrow night’s showdown with Georgia at the Georgia Dome.

The Broncos announced in a brief statement Friday that senior safety Cedric Febis, sophomore defensive tackle Ricky Tjong-a-Tjoe and sophomore wide receiver Geraldo Boldewijn had not accompanied the team to Atlanta.

“The three are being held out of the game due to a review of their NCAA eligibility,” the statement read. “The review is not academic or violation of team rules.”

The three players all have a few noteworthy things in common. The first is that all three are originally from Amsterdam, the Netherlands, where they each played for local football club teams before coming to the U.S. All three played for prep high schools in Boise before joining the Broncos.

The second is that all three are expected to be major contributors for the Broncos this season. A fifth-year senior, Febis was in line to earn a starting safety position following the graduation of Jeron Johnson. He is likely to be replaced by redshirt freshman Jeremy Ioane.

The spread has moved from Boise State by 3.5 to Boise by 3.

ESPN Insider also has a great article about how Aaron Murray is as good as Kellen Moore. One thing to keep in mind is that Murray will be behind a veteran offensive line and Moore will be playing behind three new starters. I remember Mel Kiper making the point that the experience of the offensive line was one of the best predictors of success for a college football team. This should be a great game but I think Georgia might pull this one out.

After a brutal off-season, college football gets back to business tonight with a bunch of games. Looking at the college football lines, however, we won’t get many great games tonight.

Wisconsin is known for its cupcake schedule in non-conference games, and they get started tonight against UNLV as a 35.5 point favorite. To their credit, they’ve added Oregon State as their second game.

Tomorrow night we have a decent game with TCU as a 4-point road favorite against Baylor.

Then on Saturday we have a ton of games, with Oregon as a 4-point favorite against LSU at Cowboys Stadium and Boise State as a 3.5-point favorite against Georgia in the Georgia Dome as the featured battles.

No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 19 South Carolina, 4:00PM ET
About midway through the second quarter of last week’s Auburn-Alabama game, every college football fan around the nation was wondering how things would play out in the BCS once the Tigers lost. Then Cam Newton found his Superman cape and promptly led Auburn to its greatest comeback of the season. But it was nothing new for the Tigers, who have trailed many times before in big games throughout the year, only to rally and put the clamps on their opponents in the fourth quarter. One of those rallies came against South Carolina earlier this season when they trailed 20-7 midway through the second. The Tigers went on to score two touchdowns and blanked the Gamecocks in the fourth to win, 35-27. Now the two schools meet in the SEC Championship and Auburn will once again put its national title hopes on the line. It’s pretty simple: Win and play for a national championship or lose and hope that TCU still disgusts voters.
CURRENT ODDS: AUBURN -5

No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Nebraska, 8:00PM ET
Nebraska hasn’t won a Big 12 title since 1999 and with its move to the Big Ten next year, this will be the Huskers’ final chance to win one. They’ve have an opportunity on Saturday to avenge their 13-12 loss to Texas in last year’s Big 12 title game, a heartbreaking defeat that still is on Bo Pelini’s mind. Oklahoma earned a meeting with Nebraska thanks to its wild 47-41 victory over Oklahoma State last Saturday. The win created a three-way tie atop the South Division along with OK State and Texas A&M, but the Sooners go the nod because they were the highest ranked BCS team of the trio. Will Nebraska’s defense be able to contain Landry Jones and DeMarco Murray? Furthermore, will Taylor Martinez be healthy enough to play? He’s day-to-day with an ankle injury and even if he’s healthy enough to go, sophomore Cody Green could see some playing time.
CURRENT ODDS: OKLAHOMA -4.5

No. 21 Florida State vs. No. 15 Virginia Tech, 7:45PM ET
What a wild ride the Hokies have been on this year. They lost to Boise State 33-30 in the opener and then followed up that performance by losing to James Madison 21-16 the next week. But then Frank Beamer’s squad got it together and rattled off 10 straight to get to where they are now, which is a date with Florida State in the ACC title game. The Seminoles and Hokies have combined to win three of the five ACC championship games throughout the year. FSU has its own hot streak going, as they’ve won three in a row following a two-game skid. VA Tech’s Tyrod Taylor has gotten more accurate as a passer throughout the season, while FSU’s Christian Ponder has battled through nagging injuries and now wants a crack at the Orange Bowl. If Ponder and the Seminoles are to be victorious, they better figure out a way to score in the fourth quarter because VA Tech’s defense (which has allowed just six fourth-quarter touchdowns this season) has been outstanding in crunch time this year.
CURRENT ODDS: VIRGINIA TECH -4

No. 2 Oregon vs. Oregon State, 3:30PM ET
Oh, to be Oregon State. Not only do the Beavers have to figure out a way to slow Oregon’s explosive offense, but they’re also facing a Ducks team that can’t be too pleased that Auburn replaced them as the No. 1 team in the BCS standings last week. The plan is simple for Oregon: Beat Oregon State in the 114th edition of the Civil War and play for a national title. Lose, and then hope that TCU doesn’t leapfrog them in the rankings. But Oregon State won’t be a pushover, as a win would make the Beavers bowl eligible. Jacquizz Rodgers and company have been pesky this year against top ranked teams, so don’t assume that it’s going to be a blowout in Corvallis this weekend.
CURRENT ODDS: OREGON -16.5

2010 Championship Week Odds & Point Spreads

Read the rest of this entry »