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Revisiting my NBA free agency predictions

Now that the top 10 NBA free agents have made up their minds, let’s check in with my list of ‘sure-to-be-wrong’ predictions and see how I fared.

1. Dwyane Wade will re-sign with the Heat.
Check.

2. Chris Bosh will also sign with Miami.
Check.

3. LeBron and Carlos Boozer will sign with Chicago.
I didn’t think that LeBron would join what many consider to be ‘Wade’s Team’ and the Bulls gave him the next-best chance to win a championship, especially if Boozer landed there as well. The Bulls were wise to grab Boozer, who is a very nice fit alongside Joakim Noah.

4. Joe Johnson will sign with the Clippers.
I bought into the report that Johnson was in L.A. leading up to free agency and that he had a good relationship with the Clippers’ GM. The Hawks shocked the league when they offered him a six-year max contract and methinks they’ll be regretting it in 2-3 years. Who would have thought that when everything was said and done, that Joe Johnson would get the biggest contract of this free agent class?

5. Stoudemire will land in the Big Apple.
…”the Knicks will be sure to throw gobs of money to save face after pretty much striking out on the other top free agents.” Yeah, that’s pretty much what happened, though the Knicks were proactive and signed Stoudemire before being shunned by LeBron and Wade. And Amare was happy to lap up the dough after the Suns wanted to negotiate a deal that included incentives related to his health.

6. The Knicks will re-sign David Lee.
Donnie Walsh elected to conserve most of his cap space so that the Knicks can be a player in next summer’s free agency, plus the Lee-for-Randolph trade gives the Knicks a good (and cheap) up-and-coming power forward to replace Lee.

7. The Knicks will trade Eddy Curry for Gilbert Arenas.
This could still happen, but it looks like it won’t, at least not now. The Lee trade signals that the Knicks are going to be careful with their cap space, and trading for Arenas would be a huge risk.

8. The Grizzlies will match a max offer for Rudy Gay.
Technically, this prediction wasn’t correct. The Grizzlies once again raised eyebrows around the league by signing Gay to a max contract without letting the market set his price.

9. Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce re-sign with the Mavs and C’s, respectively.
There were pundits out there that actually thought that Pierce could land with the Nets and that Nowitzki would join LeBron in Chicago, but Boston and Dallas made sure these players stayed put.

Overall, I didn’t do too badly, did I?

Report: Revis won’t follow through with holdout

SAN DIEGO - JANUARY 17: Cornerback Darrelle Revis #24 of the New York Jets runs after making an interception against the San Diego Chargers during AFC Divisional Playoff Game at Qualcomm Stadium on January 17, 2010 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Robert Laberge/Getty Images)

Michael Lombardi of the NFL Network reports that Jets’ cornerback Darrelle Revis will not follow through on his threat to hold out of training camp if he doesn’t receive a new contract.

Revis has plenty of incentive to report.

He has the option to void his current contract at the end of the 2010 season, but the Jets have the right to buy back the remaining two years at $20 million, fully guaranteed.

If Revis were to miss any mandatory time due to a holdout, however, he might lose the guranteed portion of the contract. He would then be under contract for two more years, at $5 million in 2011 and $15 million in 2012. That potential guarantee is something he would not want to risk.

The Jets are willing to give Revis the biggest contract ever for a defensive back (one that will approach $100 million), but reports continue to state that he wants more than the Raiders’ Nnamdi Asomugha (who received $28.5 million in guaranteed money over the first two years of the deal he signed in 2009).

As I wrote last month on this topic, I refuse to believe that Revis would turn down $100 million just because he wouldn’t make more than Asomugha annually. No athlete can be that greedy, can they? (Don’t answer that.)

The Jets are heading in the right direction under Rex Ryan. They don’t need a major case of the “me’s” right now as they try to make a run at the Super Bowl this season. Hopefully for their sake, Revis won’t hold out and eventually the two sides can come to an agreement on a deal so things don’t get ugly.

Jose Canseco loses boxing match to 60-year-old man

If that title doesn’t have you laughing your ass off, then you need to check your pulse.

From Yahoo! Sports:

It was another embarrassing fighting exhibition for Jose Canseco. Or was it? Canseco agreed to travel to Arkansas to take on 60-year-old Gary Hogan in a boxing match. The former major league slugger plodded his way through four rounds and lost a 39-37 decision to Hogan, an associate athletic director at the University of Arkansas-Little Rock. “Rock ’em Sock ’em Rumble by the River” went down at Dickey-Stephens Park before the Arkansas Travelers-Midland Rockhounds Triple-A baseball game.

It looks like the snitch that sports fans love to hate showed a little heart. Frankly, it didn’t look like Canseco, 46, was really trying. Although in the prefight and postfight, Hogan broke down the fight like it was real.

“He did [throw his heavy artillery at me],” said Hogan. “I took some shots but the bottom line is, I’m used to taking shots. I felt good in there. I wasn’t tired, my conditioning was unbelievable. I thought he got tired there in the third and fourth rounds.”
Hogan came in at 191 pounds while Canseco was 240. The fight was put together to benefit Ray Rodgers’ boxing gym and GED program in Little Rock.

“It’s an exhibition. I had a great time. I’ve gotta a lot of respect for Gary. Just coming out here and fighting a guy 15 years his junior, he’s got some [guts].”

Canseco was paid for the fight.

As the article points out and as you can see in the video below, Canseco barely broke a sweat. But he still lost…to a 60-year-old.

Kudos to Hogan for having the stones to get in the ring with Canseco, even though the former baseball slugger fights like Peter McNeely.

What’s next for the Heat?

July 09, 2010 - Miami, FLORIDA, UNITED STATES - epa02243370 Miami Heat President Pat Riley (C) takes his seat during NBA basketball team Miami Heat's 'HEAT Summer of 2010 Welcome Event' at the American Airlines arena in Miami, Florida, USA, 09 July 2010. The Miami Heat reached an agreement with LeBron James to leave the Cleveland Cavaliers, and sign with the Miami Heat.

Now that the Miami Thrice is locked up for the next six years — well, for four years at least — it’s time for Pat Riley, the greatest general manager in the history of time, to fill out his roster.

Larry Coon, who manages the excellent NBA Salary Cap FAQ, wrote a piece for ESPN about how Riley can proceed with filling out the rest of the roster.

Sources told ESPN.com that James and Bosh signed for $14.5 million and Wade $14 million, leaving the Heat with nearly $8.3 million to spend.

One persistent rumor has the Heat using some of their leftover cap room to add sharpshooting Mike Miller to the lineup, and Miller is reportedly close to agreeing with the team on a deal totaling $25 million over five years — which would start at around $4.3 million. While he is a natural small forward (the same position James plays), Miller’s skill set would complement those of LeBron, Bosh and Wade, and there would be several ways of slotting him into the lineup. In addition to using Miller as James’ backup for the 8-12 minutes James is off the floor, coach Erik Spoelstra could play either Wade or James at point guard and put Miller at the vacated position.

Once Miller is on board the team would have just $4 million remaining to spend on free agents. It is possible Riley will try to use this money to persuade forward Udonis Haslem to return to the team. Since the Heat are without their own midlevel and biannual exceptions (sacrificed as part of the process to create cap room), the team would then be limited to offering players only minimum-salary contracts. Riley will have to sell some players on the idea of accepting the minimum in order to be a part of history. In return for their sacrifice the Heat could offer big minutes (including one or perhaps two starting roles), the chance to be part of a media phenomenon and a legitimate shot at the title.

What sort of player would be swayed by such a pitch? The likely candidate is an older veteran who has already banked his nest egg, and is now looking for a ring before he retires.

Coon goes on to mention Shaq, Earl Watson, James Jones and Raja Bell as possible targets for Riley. In my initial piece about how things would work in Miami, I listed the following players:

The list includes, but it is not limited to: Joe Smith, Kurt Thomas, Theo Ratliff, Brad Miller, Rafer Alston, Jerry Stackhouse, Juwan Howard, Eddie House and Matt Bonner.

The Heat could also target Brian Scalabrine, just for comedy’s sake.

It would be another coup if Riley is able to acquire Miller and convince Haslem to stick around at $4 million per season. Along with Chalmers (and possibly Joel Anthony), that would give the Heat a six- or seven-player rotation, and they would just need 2-3 more solid veterans (Derek Fisher, anyone?) to round out the bench.

In other words, this is not going to be as tough as some of the pundits seem to think it will be.

If you sign Wade, Bosh and LeBron, the vets will come.

Rangers, not Yankees acquire Lee from M’s

July 04, 2010 - Detroit, MI, UNITED STATES - epa02237007 Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Cliff Lee (R) talks with Felix Hernandez after the left the game after the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan, USA on 04 July 2010. The Mariners beat the Tigers 8-1. Lee was the winning pitcher.

Even though Brian Cashman and the Yankees tried to run interference earlier in the day, the Rangers still got the piece that could make them a legitimate World Series contender in the end.

On Friday, Texas acquired left-hander Cliff Lee, right-hander Mark Lowe and cash from the Mariners in exchange for first baseman Justin Smoak, right-hander Blake Beavan, left-hander Josh Lueke and second baseman Matt Lawson. The Rangers were believed to be the front-runners for Lee all along, but reports surfaced yesterday morning that the Yankees were on the verge of acquiring him. In the end, New York couldn’t come up with the second player to appease Seattle and Lee wound up in Texas by the early evening.

Lee gives the Rangers the excellent presence at the front of their rotation that they’ve desperately needed. Considering he’s switching to the best pitcher’s park in the AL to one of the worst that his numbers will drop, but Texas had to make this move. They’re on the verge of finally ending their 11-year playoff drought and needed to acquire that final piece to help push them over the edge. Assuming he pitches as well for them as he did for the Indians, Phillies and Mariners, Lee is going to be an outstanding edition to the Rangers and someone who has already proven he can get it done in the postseason.

For the Mariners, they had no choice but to make this move as well, although Smoak was the key. On the high side, he projects to be a Mark Teixeira-type, in that he can hit for average, has pop and plays excellent defense. For fans that were disappointed that their team didn’t trade for Lee, Smoak is the type of frontline prospect that it would have cost in order to acquire the left-hander. A lot of teams don’t even have a Justin Smoak in their farm system.

Both teams did well here and give Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik credit for getting the Yankees involved. That may have put a scare into the Rangers (who know doubt didn’t want to see Lee land in New York) and got them to finally part with Smoak.

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