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      Fade Material: College Football Week 3 Predictions

      September 17, 2011 /
      Ohio State head coach Luke Fickell (C) runs onto the field prior to their NCAA football game against the University of Akron in Columbus, Ohio September 3, 2011. REUTERS/Matt Sullivan (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

      Well, go figure. I change the name of this column to “Fade Material” and then I start handing out winning picks. If I knew that was all I had to do, I would have changed the title years ago and avoided all the years of .500 or below predictions.

      After a 3-1 performance in Week 1, I finished 3-0-1 with my Week 2 picks. Georgia was a push against South Carolina but TCU, Alabama and BYU had no problems covering. I’m still looking for my first sweep of the season, so let’s see if we can’t nail it this week. (Although I admit to having reservations about “Road Test Weekend.” There are some tough games on the board…)

      Auburn @ Clemson, 12:00PM ET
      Everyone keeps waiting for Auburn to lose and all they’ve done the past two weeks is pull wins out of their backsides. The No. 19 Tigers find themselves once again as underdogs, this time against an unranked Clemson team. Nobody can ever quite figure out Clemson, which either plays the game of its life or sinks to the level of its competition. They’re 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 versus the SEC, while Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Auburn is also 6-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last four games an underdog. I think the Tigers of Auburn keeps this within a field goal, making that 3.5-point spread highly attractive.
      THE PICK: AUBURN TIGERS +3.5

      Ohio State @ Miami, 7:30PM ET
      The Buckeyes face their first road test under new head coach Luke Fickell and while they didn’t look particularly sharp against Toledo last week at home, I like OSU to win outright tonight. They’ll face a quarterback in Jacory Harris, who is coming off a one-game suspension and who was unimpressive against Oho State last year. He threw four interceptions, including three in the first half alone. Granted, that was a different Buckeyes team last season but the defense is still solid and I expect them to give Harris trouble again this time around. The Buckeyes are 11-3 against the number in all games over the last two seasons and 14-4 ATS in road games in September since 1992.
      THE PICK: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +2.5

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      College Football, External Sports

      With Michael Vick and the Eagles coming to town, it’s statement time for the Falcons

      September 16, 2011 /
      Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) passes during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on September 11, 2011 in Chicago. UPI/Brian Kersey

      Week 2 is a little early for statement games but the Falcons may be the exception.

      There were a handful of media members who predicted Atlanta to reach the Super Bowl this season, none more prominent than SI’s Peter King. But if the Falcons don’t believe they’re ready to take the next step then why should anyone else? Their brutal performance in Chicago last weekend followed an 0-4 preseason, which followed a 48-21 loss to the Packers in last year’s playoffs. Super Bowl? How about this team bothers winning a game of importance first?

      Things don’t get any easier for the Falcons this Sunday night when Michael Vick and the Eagles come to town. ESPN has had a field day with the “Whose house is it?” topic, but the Falcons should be more concerned with starting 0-2 than trying to figure out whether Vick or Matt Ryan’s name should be on the doorknocker. Atlanta has lost four straight to Philadelphia and eight of its last nine to the Eagles, including two playoff games. To suggest Andy Reid has had the Falcons’ number over the years would be an understatement.

      But Atlanta can change all that this weekend. The sloppiness that they exhibited in last Sunday’s loss to the Bears was rather uncharacteristic of the Mike Smith-led Falcons over the last three years. Thus, I expect Atlanta to play with more focus and pride this weekend.

      But focus and pride are just two ingredients that this team is missing right now. They could also use a dash of attitude, swagger and aggressiveness. Their quarterback is seemingly ready to join the elite but he hesitates to throw downfield. Their offensive coordinator was viewed as a head-coaching candidate late last season but his conservative playcalling is befuddling with the amount of weapons the Falcons posses on offense. Their head coach was once a defensive coordinator in Jacksonville but thus far, he and his current DC can’t figure out the coverage woes that the secondary and linebacker corps is having. (Save for corner Brent Grimes, who has emerged as one of the team’s top playmakers.)

      In other words, this team is a small mess right now – not a Super Bowl contender. But it’s not like the Falcons don’t have talent. On the contrary – this team is stacked. They have a slew of playmakers on offense, a ton of potential on defense, and thanks to the recent additions of James Sanders and Kelvin Hayden, plenty of depth as well.

      With that in mind, the Falcons can’t allow this game to be about Vick and his heroic homecoming. After all, if they’re going to play second fiddle to him in their own stadium, then they might as well lay down for the rest of the NFC powers as well. This game needs to be about making a statement. This needs to be about beating an opponent that has had their number and stomping out the cloud of doubt that is starting to form around them.

      A loss to the Eagles this Sunday isn’t going to eliminate the Falcons from the playoffs. But it wouldn’t kill them to have a sense of urgency right now either.

      External Sports, NFL

      Prince Fielder unlikely to return to Brewers in 2012

      September 15, 2011 /
      Milwaukee Brewers Prince Fielder looks to the stands as he waits to bat in the second inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium in St. Louis on September 5, 2011. UPI/Bill Greenblatt

      In a recent interview with TBS, impending free agent Prince Fielder said that 2011 will “probably” be his final year in Milwaukee.

      From Rotoworld.com:

      “I’m signed for this year, but being real about it, it is probably the last year,” said Fielder. Of course, this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to anyone who has followed this situation. Fielder, who is represented by Scott Boras, is likely to demand a contract north of $100 million this winter. The Brewers have managed to lock up Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart to multi-year deals, but the 27-year-old first baseman will almost certainly be out of their price range.

      As Rotoworld points out, it isn’t surprising to hear Fielder say that this will likely be his final year with the Brewers. But with Milwaukee on the verge of a postseason berth, it must be disappointing and frustration news for Brewer fans nonetheless. This should be an exciting time for the city of Milwaukee – and it is. But sooner or later reality has to set in that No. 28 won’t be in a Brewer uniform next season.

      With both Fielder and Albert Pujols set to hit the open market, things are going to get interesting this winter.

      External Sports, MLB

      2011 NFL Week 2 Point Spreads & Preview

      September 14, 2011 /
      Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick throws a pass during the first half of their NFL football game against the St. Louis Rams in St. Louis, Missouri September 11, 2011. REUTERS/Sarah Conard (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

      Eagles (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1), 8:20PM ET
      Outside of Chargers-Patriots or maybe Bears-Saints, there isn’t a juicer matchup on the schedule this week. The Falcons should be embarrassed by the way they performed last week in Chicago but they have zero time to wallow in self pity because Michael Vick and the Eagles come storming into the Georgia Dome this weekend. Andy Reid has had major ownage on the Falcons over the years, as Philly is 9-2-1 against the spread in its last 12 games against Atlanta, which includes a 4-1-1 ATS mark on the road. With defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux set to miss over a month with a knee injury, the Falcons’ defense is in major trouble. An 0-2 start for the defending NFC South champions is a big-time reality.
      THE ODDS: EAGLES –1.5

      Chargers (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0), 4:15PM ET
      Two teams picked by many to win their respective divisions will square off in New England on Sunday when the Pats host the Chargers at 4:15PM ET. These two teams met in San Diego last October and despite dominating the first half, the Bolts fell to the Pats, 23-20. The underdog is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight meetings between these two teams, while the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings. That said, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in New England and after watching Tom Brady dissect the Dolphins on Monday night, it’s hard to envision a low-scoring game this Sunday at Foxboro.
      THE ODDS: PATRIOTS –7

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      External Sports, NFL

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