Offseason Movement: In what can only be considered as a straight salary cap dump, the Nuggets traded stalwart center Marcus Camby to the Clippers for the right to swap second round picks in 2010. Given Camby’s more-than-reasonable contract (two years, $15.7 million) and defensive prowess, it left a lot of people scratching their heads, especially when the team turned around and signed J.R. Smith to a deal worth $16.5 million over three years.
Keep Your Eye On: J.R. Smith/Linas Kleiza
The team says that whoever plays better defense will get the bulk of the minutes. Both players are offensive-minded and are capable of putting up points in bunches. Smith has the better PER (18.15 compared to Kleiza’s 14.43) and is a year younger (22). The Nuggets are already defensively challenged, and neither guy is going to make anyone forget about Camby’s excellence in that area of the game.
The Big Question: What is the Nuggets plan?
They didn’t trade Allen Iverson, but they did trade Marcus Camby. Are the Nuggets trying to win now or are they building for the future? The Camby trade implies the latter, but the fact that they held on to both Carmelo Anthony (smart) and AI (not smart) indicates that the team is still trying to win with (mostly) the same group as the last few years. Iverson is in the last year of his contract ($21.9 million) so if the Nuggets don’t get off to a good start, expect them to move him before the trade deadline, assuming they can find a trade partner with something of value to offer (like a few expiring contracts and a first round draft pick or two).
Outlook: Confused. The loss of Camby means that the Nuggets are likely to take a step back, which means they are at the bottom of the playoff picture in the West. If they miss the playoffs, Iverson won’t be on the roster next season, so this will be a very interesting year in Denver.
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Sunday’s Best: Colts (3-2) at Packers (3-3), 4:15 PM CBS
There are some brutal matchups this week, so this one wins by default. The Colts will try to carry the momentum from last weeks blowout win against Baltimore into Green Bay this Sunday, but will be without running back Joseph Addai. Dominic Rhodes gets the start, but head coach Tony Dungy has said that Clifton Dawson and Chad Simpson will see some opportunities as well. Peyton Manning played his most complete game of the season last week and might get the opportunity to exploit a banged up Packers’ secondary if Al Harris (spleen) continues to be hobbled (although word is Harris might play). The Packers meanwhile, have not had much success running the ball this year with Ryan Grant, which is unfortunate given that Indy’s main defensive weakness is stopping the run. If Green Bay can’t get the running game going, they’ll again rely on QB Aaron Rodgers to make big plays to wideouts Greg Jennings and Donald Driver in the passing game. This is a huge game for both teams, especially for the Colts considering they’re currently looking up at the 5-0 Titans in the AFC South.
Upset Watch: Jets (3-2) at Raiders (1-4), 4:15 PM CBS
It’s incredibly hard to back the mess that is the Oakland Raiders right now, but they still have a ton of talent on their roster and the Jets have been awfully inconsistent this season. One week they look like playoff contenders and the next they’re getting drummed. Even though they walked away with a victory, New York didn’t play that well against Cincinnati and Brett Favre continues to turn the ball over. The Jets haven’t been able to run the ball successfully of late either, managing just 66 yards per game in the last three weeks. If Oakland is going to pull off a victory in Tom Cable’s home debut, they’ll need to run the ball effectively themselves. Because clearly QB JaMarcus Russell isn’t ready to lead this team on his own yet.
Intriguing Matchup: Cowboys (4-2) at Rams (1-4), 1:00 PM FOX
The biggest question on everyone’s minds (especially fantasy owners) is whether QB Tony Romo will play or not. Despite breaking his pinkie finger in the loss to the Cardinals last week, all indications are that Romo will in fact play. He’ll have a new weapon to throw to in Roy Williams, who the team recently acquired from Detroit at the trade deadline. But not only will it be interesting to see how effective Romo can be with a broken finger, it’ll also be intriguing to watch the many personalities the ‘Boys have on offense now that Williams and T.O. have to share looks in the passing game. Dallas has not played well since their Sunday night win against the Packers early in the year and the Rams proved last week in a win over the Redskins that they won’t be pushovers now that Jim Haslett is running things.
Other Notable Games:
Saints (3-3) at Panthers (4-2), 1:00 PM ET FOX
While everyone is focusing on the East being the best division in the NFC, the South doesn’t have any teams below .500 right now. Some still believe the Saints are the best team in the division and they’ll get the opportunity to prove it this week in Carolina.
Browns (2-3) at Redskins (4-2), 4:15 PM ET CBS
What was the bigger fluke from Week 6 – the Browns beating the Giants or the Redskins losing to the Rams?
Titans (5-0) at Chiefs (1-4), 1:00 PM ET CBS
The Titans get to put their undefeated record on the line this week in Kansas City and fortunately for them the Larry Johnson-less Chiefs shouldn’t provide much of a challenge.
Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Donovan McNabb, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.
LOVE ‘EM
QB: There are a number of fringe QBs that have nice matchups this week. Matt Schaub (vs. DET), Trent Edwards (vs. SD), Matt Cassel (vs. DEN), Jeff Garcia (vs. SEA), Brad Johnson (@ STL, assuming Tony Romo doesn’t play), JaMarcus Russell (vs. NYJ) and Dan Orlovsky (@ HOU) all face suspect pass defenses.
RB: Chris Johnson (@ KC) and LenDale White have a tantalizing matchup against the Chiefs, who are dead last in the league against the run…Thomas Jones (@ OAK) is a good start against the Raiders, who have allowed 1.6 rush TD per game this season…Steve Slaton (vs. DET) should be in your iineups against a very bad Lions defense (171 rush yards per game). Detroit did play inspired ball against the Vikings, but I’d expect the Texans to have more success…Ryan Grant (vs. IND) faces a Colts defense that has yielded 161 rushing yards per game. If he can’t get it going against Indy, he may not get it going this season…With Laurence Maroney and LaMont Jordan hobbled, Sammy Morris (vs. DEN) against a bad Bronco rush defense…For the desperate, Rudi Johnson (@ HOU) has a nice matchup with the Texans, who have given up 2.0 rush TD per game this season.
WR: This wouldn’t be a bad week to start Derrick Mason (@ MIA), as the Dolphins are #29 against the pass (239 yards per game)…Steve Smith is a no-brainer, but Muhsin Muhammad (vs. NO) should start as well. The Saints are 21st against the pass…Bernard Berrian (vs. MIN) is on fire right now (4.8-100-0.5 over the last four games) and he faces a Bears defense that is 27th in the league against the pass.
LEAVE ‘EM
QB: Just as there are a number of fringe QBs with nice matchups, there are several with bad matchups as well. Derek Anderson (@ WAS) showed some life last week, but he has a tough matchup with the Redskins this week…Brodie Croyle (vs. TEN) should not be trusted against a very good Titans defense…Chad Pennigton (vs. BAL) should ride the pine against what is probably the best defense in the league.
RB: The Chris Perry/Cedric Benson/Kenny Watson nightmare should be benched this week against a very good Steeler rush defense…Julius Jones and Maurice Morris (@ TB) face a Bucs defense that is 9th in the league against the rush and still hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season…I would still start them, but these players have tough matchups this week: Willis McGahee (@ MIA), Jamal Lewis (@ WAS), Ronnie Brown (vs. BAL), Adrian Peterson (@ CHI) and Reggie Bush (@ CAR).
WR: I don’t know that I would bench any of the WR1’s on these teams, but the Bengals, Browns, Packers, Chiefs, Saints and Steelers all have bad matchups. You can probably still start Housh, Brylon, Jennings, Bowe, Colston, Ward and Holmes, but you might want to leave Ocho Cinco, Stallworth, Driver and Lance Moore on the bench.
DTBWW
Welcome to the world of Defensive Team By Waiver Wire. Each week, you pick up a defense, usually playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. All teams are available in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
HOU (vs. DET)
MIA (vs. BAL)
Last week’s picks:
Redskins: 19 PA + 2 SK + 1 FR = 5 fantasy points
Jets: 14 PA + 5 SK + 1 FR = 10 fantasy points
Curt Schilling recently said that he wants to return to baseball next year and pitch for half a season. But as SI.com highlights, maybe he should stay retired.
Curt Schilling , the bloody-socked hero of the team’s angst-ending 2004 championship, threw out the ceremonial pitch – his only appearance on the Fenway mound this season. He bounced it about 8 feet in front of the plate.
At least Curt’s throw was roughly 10 feet longer than this guys’ toss:
Offseason Movement: The Hawks screwed the pooch when they failed to sign Josh Childress to a long-term deal. They didn’t think he had any leverage since he was a restricted free agent, but he had the cojones to sign a deal with a Greek team instead of signing a one-year tender with the Hawks. Childress is the biggest talent to leave the NBA to play overseas in the prime of the career, and the Hawks will forever be known as the team that let him go. They replaced Childress with…wait for it…Maurice Evans.
Keep Your Eye On: Marvin Williams
Thus far, the former #2 overall pick has been decidedly average – he ranks 29th amongst all small forwards in PER. The good news is that he’s just 22 and entering the final year of his rookie contract. His qualifying offer next year ($7.3 milllion) is big enough that the Hawks could conceivably pass if he doesn’t show substantial improvement this season. The team usually went with Childress at small forward in crunch time, but now those minutes should belong to Williams, and he needs to make he most of them.
The Big Question: Which direction is this team headed?
The Hawks were a surprise playoff team last season and they took the NBA champs to seven games in the first round. But Mike Bibby is a year older (and a year slower) and they lost utility-man Josh Childress. I thought it was a mistake to trade for Bibby, and now he’s in the final year of his contract ($15.2 million), which means he might become a distraction as the season wears on. If they elect to let him play out his deal, the team will have a load of cap room next summer, so it looks like the Hawks could take a step back before taking another step forward.
Outlook: The long-term outlook is bright. The Hawks have Josh Smith (5 years) and Al Horford (4 years) locked up for the foreseeable future. Joe Johnson is under contract for two more years, but the Hawks have enough salary cap flexibility to make a splash in the next year or two for a star free agent. Until then, they’ll have to settle for the chance to fight for a playoff spot in the mediocre East.
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