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Quick-Hit Reactions from Week 12 in the NFL

Every Sunday throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Vince Young scrabbles 8 yards as he is being persued by New England Patriots linebacker Tracey White during first quarter New England Patroits-Philadelphia Eagles game action at Lincoln Financial Field November 27, 2011. UPI/Eileen Angelino

Vince Young threw some ugly passes in the Eagles’ 38-20 loss to the Patriots, none bigger than his “touch” pass to Brent Celek in the back of the end zone on fourth down midway through the third quarter when the score was still relatively close. But he also deserved a better fate in the end. He threw for 400 yards and one touchdown, and should have had two more scores had DeSean Jackson not dropped two passes in the end zone. For a guy who is so concerned about his contract, Jackson isn’t playing with much concentration, focus, or drive right now. He was also benched by Andy Reid late in the fourth quarter, which signals that he’s just as likely to get the boot in Philly than a new deal.

Matt Leinart admitted following the Texans’ 20-13 win over the Jaguars that his season is likely over. Dude waits two years to get another shot to start in the NFL and when he does, he breaks his collarbone in his second quarter back. That’s a tough break, both literally and figuratively. Now Houston’s playoff hopes ride on fifth-round rookie T.J. Yates, although it’s not like the Texans were pinning their hopes on great quarterback play from here on out anyway. If they win, it’ll be because of their running game and defense – not Leinart, Yates, or whomever they find while dumpster diving next week.

– I loved how CBS kept showing Tim Tebow sitting on the bench as the Chargers marched down the field in overtime trying to get into field goal range for a game-winning score. As if Tebow was going to summon some magical higher power to help Denver’s defense stuff Mike Tolbert on a 4-yard loss on 3rd-and-6 and force the Chargers to attempt a 53-yard-field goal instead of a 49-yarder. And then magically lead the Broncos down the field, get into field goal range and then win in come-from-behind fashion once again. I mean, let’s get real…….say again? That’s exactly what happened? For Tebow’s sake, are you serious? That CBS is genius…

– …in all seriousness, Denver’s defense deserves most, if not all of the credit for the team’s sudden turnaround. Tebow is 5-1 and has been incredibly clutch in the fourth quarter and in overtime, but without the Broncos’ defense holding opponents to 13 points or less he may not win a game. Von Miller is something special and John Fox has done wonders for Denver’s entire defense.

– Their mismanagement of Blaine Gabbert has made the front office and coaching staff in Jacksonville look like a bunch of clowns. Gabbert clearly wasn’t ready for NFL action when the Jaguars drafted him with the 10th overall pick last April, which was fine because David Garrard was still the starter. Gabbert could have held a clipboard in his first year before taking over next season or in 2013 when he was ready. But instead, the front office released Garrard and the Jaguars shoehorned Gabbert into the starting role right away. Then, because he’s been so ineffective over the past two months, the team had to bench him today against Houston in favor of Luke McCown. Had the Jags remained patient from the start this situation could have been avoided. But now Gabbert’s confidence has likely taken a huge hit and GM Gene Smith may lose his job for his poor decision-making this offseason.

– The Chargers are done and you wonder whether or not Norv Turner’s time in San Diego is up. If it is, maybe he should give serious consideration to staying an offensive coordinator. Stripped from all of his head-coaching responsibilities, I think the guy could win multiple Super Bowls again just calling plays. Granted, the Chargers only scored 13 points today but Turner’s version of the Air Coryell offense can often be very explosive. He just lacks whatever guys like Mike Tomlin have in order to inspire a football team. I don’t want to say what’s best for Turner because only he knows that. But as an outsider, I don’t think it would be such a bad thing if he finishes his coaching career up in the booth calling plays. (If the Chargers end his tenure in San Diego, that is.)

New York Jets Mark Sanchez points to the defense in the first quarter against the Buffalo Bills in week 12 of the NFL season at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on November 27, 2011. UPI /John Angelillo

– Only Mark Sanchez could throw for four touchdowns and still leave people doubting his abilities. I watched a good portion of the Jets’ 28-24 win over the Bills on Sunday and while Sanchez certainly executed in the red zone, he was shaky against a miserable Buffalo defense (which should have finished with more than just one interception). But at least New York picked up the win, which was big given New England’s victory against Philadelphia late on Sunday.

– I know it was only Minnesota but the Falcons’ offense is finally starting to resemble the unit that everyone thought it would at the beginning of the year. Matt Ryan went his second-straight game without turning the ball over and threw three touchdown passes, while Roddy White had his second straight 100-yard performance and made a sweet catch in the back of the end zone for his lone score during Atlanta’s 24-14 win. After two months of wasting his talent, OC Mike Mularkey has also finally figured out what a weapon Harry Douglas is in the slot. The next thing Mularkey has to do is stop using Julio Jones as just a complementary piece in the offense. Once that happens, the Falcons will really be firing on all cylinders.

– Speaking of firing on all cylinders, I give you the New England Patriots. Wes Welker: Eight catches, 115 yards, two touchdowns. Deion Branch (from my fantasy bench): Six catches and 125 yards. Aaron Hernandez: Six catches and 62 yards. Rob Gronkowski: A very quiet four catches for 59 yards and one 24-yard touchdown catch. Tom Brady topped everything off with 361 yards threw the air and three touchdowns. The Patriots are at their best when they get everybody involved a la the Saints and Packers. That was a very sound performance out of New England, which never panicked even though it was down 10-0 early to the Eagles.

Arizona Cardinals Patrick Peterson catches a punt by the St. Louis Rams before running it back for a 80 yard touchdown in the third quarter at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis on November 27, 2011. Arizona won the game 23-20. UPI/Bill Greenblatt

– If Beanie Wells could only stay healthy he could be one of the league’s premier backs. The Rams don’t have the greatest of defenses but Wells looked explosive while rushing for a record 228 yards on 27 carries in the Cardinals’ 23-20 win. He and Patrick Peterson (who returned his fourth punt return for touchdown this season) snatched victory from the jaws of defeat (other wise known as John Skelton).

– Outside of Chris Johnson’s 190 rushing yards, it wasn’t a great effort by the Titans in their 23-17 win over the Bucs. But all wins are huge for Tennessee from here on out. The Titans only trail the Texans by two games in the AFC South and now that Houston is down to T.J. Yates at quarterback, Tennessee has a very realistic shot of catching Houston down the stretch. For Tennessee, it’s “Just win baby” from here on out.

– The Browns are something else. They find new ways to lose every week. They managed to catch the Bengals sleepwalking today in Cincinnati but they squandered a 17-7 halftime lead and a 20-10 third-quarter lead to lose 23-20 on a last-second field goal. Joe Haden (who is a star in the making) was stuck to A.J. Green like Velcro for 58 minutes and the one big play Green makes goes for 51 yards to set up the Bengals’ game-winning field goal. Unreal. And Colt McCoy does just enough not to win every week. The kid threw two touchdown passes but he his average pass went for 4.4 yards. Four-point-four yards! The Browns need a little more out of McCoy than that.

– Want to know how bad things are right now for the Vikings? Percy Harvin had a 107-yard kickoff return today and still didn’t score a touchdown. That’s tough to do.

– You have to love Mike Shanahan. Five days ago he basically said that Roy Helu wasn’t ready to be the Redskins’ full-time back and then handed the rookie 30 touches in the team’s 23-17 win over the Seahawks on Sunday. Helu finished with 108 rushing yards and 54 receiving yards, with one touchdown and seven receptions to boot. I’m sure Evan Royster will start and receive the same opportunities next week as Shanahan continues to ruin fantasy football owners’ lives.

– While the Seahawks remain a highly perplexing team, Marshawn Lynch continues to be one of the steadiest backs in the league. For the third time in his last four games, Lynch rushed for over 100 yards and for the seventh straight week, he found the end zone. It came in a losing effort but he’s a free agent at the end of the year and if he continues to run like he has, he’ll be earning a long-term contract next offseason.

Fade Material: NFL Week 12 Predictions

Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow throws against the New York Giants in their NFL football game in Denver November 17, 2011. REUTERS/Rick Wilking (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

With two pushes, one loss and one win in Week 11, my season record is now 18-24-2. I’m sure I go undefeated from here on out though, so make not of my selections below.

Browns @ Bengals, 1:00PM ET
This is a trap game for the Bengals. They’re coming off two hard-fought losses to the Steelers and Ravens and have another matchup with Pittsburgh coming up next Sunday. Thus, it’ll be easy for them to overlook a bad Cleveland team that somehow has four wins on the year. The Browns’ offense packs as much punch as a dead raccoon but their defense has kept them in most games this season. Divisional games are usually tight and I think Cleveland catches Cincinnati trying to sleepwalk through what should be an easy victory.
THE PLAY: CLEVELAND BROWNS +7.5

Vikings @ Falcons, 1:00PM ET
The Falcons rarely blow opponents out, which is why so many people think they’re overrated. Thus, I’m reluctant to lay almost 10 points on them this week but this is as good a spot as any. Adrian Peterson is out and Christian Ponder is good for at least two interceptions. Outside of its near collapse last Sunday against the Titans, the Falcons’ defense has been very good for over a month now. I think the Vikings will have trouble generating points and Atlanta will methodically build a big lead. That said, if the Falcons have as much trouble in the red zone this week as they did last Sunday, then the outcome of this game will be closer than it should be.
THE PICK: ATLANTA FALCONS –9.5

Bills @ Jets, 1:00PM ET
We know Buffalo won’t score without Fred Jackson because there’s no way Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the best of Rex Ryan’s defense this week. (He certainly didn’t the last time these two teams played, and that was when Jackson was healthy.) That said, I don’t trust Mark Sanchez to finally snap out of it and play with confidence so the under seems like a great play in this one. Buffalo’s defense is brutal and turnovers could be an issue but there’s a good chance that this game is a field-goal fest.
THE PICK: UNDER 41.5

Broncos @ Chargers, 4:15PM ET
Tim Tebow’s ratio of bad quarters to good quarters is about 3:1 right now. He’s unwatchable for three quarters but he turns it on in the fourth and everyone gives him the credit for the win even though the defense has to basically pitch shutouts. Thus, I get why many people aren’t buying into the Broncos as a serious playoff threat. That said, have you seen Philip Rivers play lately? The guy is almost willing his team to defeat. That interception he threw at the end of the Bears game last week looked like a guy who had money riding on the outcome. Denver’s defense is legit and could give Rivers fits if he continues to play as poorly as he has, which is why I love the points here.
THE PICK: DENVER BRONCOS +6

After final full week of season, Heisman race still wide open

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck (C) celebrates a touchdown with teammates Stephan Taylor (33) and Ryan Hewitt (R) against Oregon State during the second half of their NCAA football game in Corvallis, Oregon, November 5, 2011. REUTERS/Steve Dipaola (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

By this time in most college football seasons, we know who is winning the Heisman Trophy. Not this year, however, as there are several contenders that are still very much in the race.

After today’s games, nobody separated themselves from the field, and nobody fell out. It’s been that kind of year.

Here’s a look at how I would vote if the Heisman Trust ever decided to give a vote to a guy who writes two posts a week on a blog:

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford: What’s that you say, this is a cop out? I say nonsense. Luck has had a great year statistically leading a Stanford team that doesn’t have a single wide receiver who will play a significant role in the NFL. He’s doing this with tight ends, people, which makes it more impressive. Yes, the offensive line is great, and yes, he had a bad day against Oregon. Although I’d argue his bad day against Oregon had a lot more to do with not having receivers. And it wasn’t really all that bad. He had a big-time performance against Notre Dame today, but it wasn’t enough to really distance himself.

2. Trent Richardson, Alabama: He’s the best player in college football, but his performance against LSU might hurt him. Nobody does anything against LSU, but for a lot of voters and viewers, that was one of their few times seeing him play. He went off in the Iron Bowl today, but that’s a bad Auburn defense, and there was very little hype around that game, despite the fact Gameday was there.

3. Matt Barkley, USC: I fear voters will ignore Barkley because of USC’s probation, but he’s been ridiculous this year. As I write this, Barkley is destroying UCLA. Sure, that’s not that awesome, considering it’s UCLA, but he’s done it to most defense. Barkley and the Trojans got off to a slow start, which is probably what’s hurting him more than anything, because anyone that has followed the Heisman knows it’s all about getting your name in early and maintaining.

4. Robert Griffin III, Baylor: He might have lost his chance at this award tonight. Not because of the injury, because that’s well out of his hands. But his backup, Nick Florence came in and went nuts, and I have a feeling people are looking for any reason to not give this award to a player from Baylor. Don’t get me wrong, without Griffin, Baylor certainly isn’t in the Top 25, but he struggled against a suspect Oklahoma State defense, and that’s the game that will be weighed with his performance against Oklahoma. OK, who am I kidding, the Oklahoma game wins out.

5. Tyrann Mathieu, LSU: He won’t win it because of the suspension, but if Richardson is the nation’s best player, he’s the second, and it’s pretty close. Mathieu proved again Friday with a punt return touchdown against Arkansas that he impacts the game more than any defensive player in the country. Plus, he has the nation’s best nickname: Honey Badger.

Michigan gets the monkey off its back, beats Ohio State

Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson (C) celebrates with teammates after his diving touchdown into the end zone against Ohio State during the first half of their NCAA college football game in Ann Arbor, Michigan November 26, 2011. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook (UNITED STATES) – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

The streak is over. It had been 2,926 days since Michigan had last beat Ohio State, but today, the Wolverines ended that, picking up a 40-34 win against the Buckeyes in a thrilling game at the Big House.

Courtney Avery picked off a Braxton Miller pass in the final minute of the game to seal the win for Michigan, which is now 10-2 with a legitimate chance to be selected to a BCS bowl. In fact, at this point, I’d be surprised if the Wolverines were passed up by the Sugar Bowl, which is very likely going to have two at-large choices thanks to the SEC likely putting two teams in the national title game.

It was an improved defense that had Michigan in that position heading into today, but it was Denard Robinson that finished the job. The junior quarterback had the best game of his career in what was really a must-win situation for the Wolverines (more on that in a second). He was 14-of-17 for 166 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for 170 yards and two scores. He’s had statistically better games, but this is the one that Denard will be remembered for in Michigan.

As to the must-win declaration: With Ohio State in the state it was in this season, and with Urban Meyer coming on board, if Michigan didn’t win this year, it might have been a while before the Wolverines found a way to win against the Buckeyes. Brady Hoke has done a great job in Year 1, but he’s led a bit of a charmed existence thanks to a very weak Big Ten, an 8-game home schedule, and his chief rival — both on the field and in recruiting — being hampered by a rough season on and off the field. He’s taken advantage and deserves credit for doing so — he should make no apologies for dragging a fading program back to 10-2 — but had he lost this game, a lot of the goodwill he has built up might have been gone.

It nearly was, had it not been for the erratic arm of Braxton Miller. The Ohio State freshman looked brilliant in spots, especially running the football, but he missed a lot of open receivers and cost the Buckeyes at least two sure touchdowns with overthrows. The second came on the final drive, as DeVier Posey had double-moved J.T. Floyd into oblivion and was running free down the sidelines.

The thought of Miller with some more seasoning and in Urban Meyer’s offense should scare not only Michigan fans and the rest of the Big Ten, but the rest of the country. Those two will win a lot of games together.

But not today. No, today belonged to Michigan, which isn’t thinking about all of that other stuff while celebrating the only thing that matters in Ann Arbor, beating Ohio State.

Fade Material: College Football Week 13 Predictions

University of Oregon running back LaMichael James (R) celebrates his touchdown run against Louisiana State University with tight end David Paulson (L) and offensive linesman Carson York in the first half of their NCAA football game at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas September 3, 2011. REUTERS/Mike Stone (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

While Michigan covered easily and Cal made for a nice underdog pick at Stanford, Oklahoma and Oregon both lost outright which gave me a 2-2 record for Week 12. That puts me at 26-20-2 on the season with just two weeks remaining until Bowl season starts. Maybe the college football gods will humor me with a victory this weekend…

…ha! That’s rich.

Georgia @ Georgia Tech, 12:00PM ET
I fully expect the Bulldogs to have a hangover after clinching a SEC title berth last weekend in their highly impressive 19-10 romp over Kentucky. (/end sarcasm.) The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 against the spread in their last five non-conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven versus the SEC. The Dawgs, meanwhile, are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games. I like GA Tech to hang with its in-state rivals today, if not win outright.
THE PICK: GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS +6

Oregon State @ Oregon, 3:30PM ET
Following their loss last Saturday to USC, the Ducks really only have one chance to reach the national title game: Blow out their next two opponents and hope like hell the top teams fall. Oregon State would seem like a massive value at +28 but Oregon is angry. This one could get real ugly, real fast and Chip Kelly isn’t going to stop lighting up the scoreboard if he gets a chance.
THE PICK: OREGON DUCKS –27.5

Penn State @ Wisconsin, 3:30PM ET
Even though they won last Saturday in Illinois, the Badgers’ 28-17 victory over the Illini certainly wasn’t impressive. Thus, I like them to “bounce back” against a Penn State team this weekend that simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to match the likes of Montee Ball and Russell Wilson. The favorite is 6-0 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams while the home squad is 4-1 against the number in the last five meetings.
THE PICK: WISCONSIN BADGERS –14.5

Clemson @ South Carolina, 7:45PM ET
The Tigers have turned the ball over 11 times in their last three games and the Gamecocks have a very opportunistic defense. That sounds like a recipe for disaster for Clemson, which is just 1-4 against the number in its last five games against South Carolina. I’m not a big fan of laying the points with the Gamecocks, who have a habit of making things more interesting than they need to be. That said, Clemson certainly doesn’t look like a team right now that deserves to be playing in the ACC title game.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS –3.5

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

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