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Joe Lunardi projects that the Arizona Wildcats would be the last team in if the season ended today. The Wildcats are 8-8 in conference and 18-11 overall. They have two remaining games — Cal, Stanford — both at home. Like most bubble teams, they have a poor record (2-4) against Top 25-ranked teams, though they are helped by their 2-1 record against Top 25 RPI teams, with wins over Kansas and Washington. They also beat Gonzaga back in December and UCLA to cap a seven-game winning streak.

So what’s the problem? Well, Arizona has 11 losses, and they’ve dropped their last three games. In their defense, those games were all on the road and two (Washington, Arizona St.) were against ranked opponents. But Washington St. was beatable and Arizona lost by 16.

A win Thursday night against Cal would probably seal the deal, though a loss against Stanford and a poor showing in the Pac-10 tournament would offset that win. It’s clear that the Wildcats still have some work to do. They need to win at least one of the next two games to stay at or above .500 in conference. If they beat Cal and Stanford, they can probably absorb a first round loss in the Pac-10 tourney. But a win or two in the tourney would obviously help.